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Emini Bulls Want Upside Breakout of Bear Flag

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Trading Update: Monday March 20, 2023

Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini formed a bear bar on Friday after last Thursday’s (March 16th) bull breakout.
  • The bears want Friday (March 17th) to set up a Low 2 short, leading to a downside breakout below the March low.
  • With last Thursday’s breakout bar being so big, there are more likely buyers below Friday’s low (Low 2).
  • The daily chart is in a trading range at credible support, the December 2022 area. The bulls want a high-low double bottom (December 22nd and March 13th)
  • It is common to get bull breakouts of bear flags at the bottom of trading ranges. The opposite goes for the tops of trading ranges (bear breakouts of bull flags).
  • Since the bears have a reasonable Low 2 near support, traders should be prepared for a bull breakout above Friday’s high late in a February selloff.
  • This means that the market may get a measured move from the March 13th low to the March 16th high, which projects up to around 4,150.
  • Trades will pay close attention today since it will likely be the entry bar for last Friday’s Low 2 short. If the bear gets a strong follow-through bar, more traders will sell, betting on lower prices. If today is a strong bull reversal bar, the bears may exit early, anticipating the market going above the March 16th high.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • Emini is up 10 points in the overnight Globex session.
  • The Globex had a downside breakout during the overnight hours and reversed up recently.
  • Traders should be open to the possibility of a bull trend day (see daily chart above, bad Low 2). However, the day will likely have a lot of trading range price action.
  • As always, traders should expect open and sideways trading range for the first 6-12 bars.
  • Most traders should focus on trying to catch the opening swing trade that usually begins before the end of the second hour.
  • It is common for the opening swing to begin after a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom.  
  • Lastly, traders can wait for a credible breakout with follow-through and enter in the direction of the breakout, betting on a 2nd leg.

Friday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-min Chart Double Top Bear Trend From Open Then Trading Range

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

EURUSD Daily: Bulls want upside breakout
  • The bulls want an upside breakout of the March 15th outside down bar and a test of the February high.
  • The bulls are beginning to develop a fair amount of bull bars closing above their midpoints, which is a sign of increasing buying pressure.  This slightly increases the odds of an upside breakout.
  • The market has been testing the bottom of a trading range for some time (January 6th low). The bears know the market will probably have to form a lower-high major trend reversal.
  • Until then, the market is probably in a trading range, which means traders will expect deep pullbacks.
  • Some bulls bought the February 1st close, even though it is the best-looking bull bar late in an overbought rally. These bulls will probably be able to above a loss, especially if they scaled in lower. This means sideways to up is most likely at least for the next couple of weeks.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow

SP500 Emini 5-min Chart Wedge Top Triangle Day

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

End of day review

  • Live stream video trial replacement of end of day review coming soon.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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