Trading Update: Thursday March 16, 2023
Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini reversed up from a bad Low 1 short yesterday and formed a bull reversal bar closing on its high. So Emini downside probably limited over next 2 days.
- The bulls will see this as a second entry buy, and they want a strong entry bar today, forcing the bears to exit.
- More likely, the bulls will be disappointed today, and it will not be a strong entry bar.
- The bulls have done a good job damaging the bear case. However, they still need to do more. Last week’s selloff was strong enough that the odds are the market will not go straight up. This means that sideways is more likely.
- The bears hope that a reversal up above yesterday’s buy signal will lead to a second entry short (Low 2). However, yesterday’s buy signal bar is strong enough to limit the downside for at least the next few bars.
- Overall, the market will probably continue sideways for several bars. The bulls want to reverse the market and get a close above the March 2nd low, and the bears want to get a second leg down from last week’s selloff.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is down 20 points in the overnight Globex session.
- The Globex market sold off overnight, testing the opening range of yesterday’s U.S. Session.
- The bulls are trying to form a higher lower of the last two days and rally during today’s day session.
- Traders should expect a trading range open and be cautious about trading the first 6 bars of the day.
- Most traders should focus on catching the opening swing trade that usually begins before the end of the second hour.
- Because of yesterday’s strong buy signal bar on the daily chart, traders should expect the downside to be limited.
Emini intraday market update
- The Emini went sideways on the open for the first hour. The market formed a double bottom with bar 1 and 12 and got an upside breakout above the neckline (bar 7).
- As of bar 27 (8:45 AM PT) the market has been in a strong bull trend. This is likely due to the daily chart forming a 2nd entry buy and bears giving up above yesterday’s high.
- As strong as the bull trend is, it is becoming climactic, which increase the odds of a pullback soon. The best the bears can likely expect is sideways to the moving average, for at least the next several bars.
- Most bulls will probably look to take profits soon and wait for a pullback to the moving average.
- The bulls want today to close on its high and be a strong entry bar on the daily chart. The bears want to create as big of a tail on top as possible.
- Overall, traders should expect sideways and a test of the moving average over the next hour or two.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The market formed a surprise bear reversal bar yesterday. However, it is following a 5-bar bull micro channel.
- While yesterday’s bar is strong enough to have a 2nd leg down probably, it will likely lead to disappointment for the bears.
- The market is forming a tight trading range, an expanding triangle. This means the market is deciding on trend reversal up or resumption down.
- The bulls need a strong reversal bar to undo the bear damaged caused by yesterday. Next, the bulls need a strong entry bar.
- Overall, the market is in a tight trading range and beginning to oscillate around the moving average. Until there is a clear breakout, there is no breakout. This means most traders should wait for a clear breakout with follow-through before trading.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
End of day video review
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.