Trading Update: Wednesday April 5, 2023
S&P Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini might form inside day today after selling off yesterday as bulls began to take partial profits at the bear trendline. Some aggressive bears will sell up here for scalps. However, the downside is likely going to be limited.
- The market will probably go sideways for a couple of days at this price level.
- It is important to notice that the market may begin to stall just under the February 2023 high. If it does stall for several bars under the February high, that will be a sign of trading range price action.
- Strong trends break out beyond resistance before pulling back. However, it is common in trading ranges for the market to get vacuumed to a resistance level but not break out above it and pull back.
- The bears want the market to close the breakout point above the March 22nd high, and the bull wants this measuring gap to stay open.
- Right now, the bulls have the argument of a bull breakout of a bear flag. The bulls see the March 13th low to the March 22nd high as a bear flag. They see the recent breakout above the March 22nd high as a bull breakout of the bear flag, and they want the market to go up for a measured move and test around 4,300.
- The bears want the market to develop more selling pressure at this price level and reverse down, forming a lower high on February 2nd.
- Overall, the bears have not done enough to take control, and the best the bears can hope for is sideways. However, if the bears can develop more selling pressure, they will have a credible chance at getting below the March 22nd breakout point high. Until the bears can develop more selling pressure, traders should expect sideways to up as likely.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is down 10 points in the overnight Globex session.
- The Globex has been in a trading range for most of the overnight session.
- Traders should expect today to have a lot of trading range price action.
- Since yesterday was an outside down day, the market may try and form an inside day today.
- Most traders should wait for 6-12 bars before placing a trade unless they are comfortable with limit orders.
- In general, traders should try and catch the opening swing trade that will typically begin before the end of the second hour after the formation of a double top/bottom.
- Important support and resistance levels today will be yesterday’s low, yesterday’s close, and probably the day’s open.
- While the odds favor a trading range open, traders must not be in denial of a trend from the open. If the day is going to be a bull trend, there will be plenty of time to enter the trend’s direction.
Emini intraday market update
- The Emini opened within yesterday’s range and formed a trading range during the first hour.
- The bears got a strong bear breakout bar on 7:05 AM PT that was strong enough to increase the odds of a 2nd leg down after any pullback.
- The bears ended up getting a breakout below yesterday’s low. However, the follow-through was weak, and the market went about the breakout point on the 8:40 AM PT bar.
- Since today is a trading range day, the market may have to test back into the opening range.
- The bears want the opposite and for the market to continue down in a bear channel.
- With all of the buying pressure today, that will lower the probability of the bear channel lasting all day. This means a rally lasting a couple of hours is likely.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD came within 20 pips of the February 1st close. This is an obvious magnet for the bulls.
- It was reasonable to buy the February 1st close since the market was in a bull channel and scaled in lower. Bulls will likely be disappointed by the deep pullback down to the March low, and many bulls will probably be happy to exit around the February high. This will increase the risk of the market going sideways at this price level.
- The channel up from the March low is tight and increase the odds of the market going sideways at this price level.
- The bulls will try to get an upside breakout of the February high over the next few days. The bears will try their best to prevent any upside breakout above the February high from being successful.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
End of day video review
Brad hosted a live stream End of Day Review and answered questions.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.