Buy climax before Comey’s Russia and Trump hearing
The Emini opened in the middle of yesterday’s trading range at the 60 minute moving average. Furthermore, yesterday was a weak buy signal bar on the daily chart. Therefore, if today rallies above yesterday’s high, the breakout probably will not lead to a strong bull trend. In addition, if the breakout reverses down, that would form an expanding triangle top.
The 1st bar was a bear bar and the 3rd bar was a doji. These are signs that the rally that began at the end of yesterday is more likely a bull leg in a trading range. They increase the odds that today will continue the trading range price action of the past 2 days. With the uncertainty of Comey’s Thursday’s speech, the odds are against a strong trend today. Yet, if there is a strong breakout up or down, traders will swing trade.
While the Emini is Always In Long, yesterday’s selloff and the rally since yesterday’s close creates a Big Down, Big Up pattern. As a result, there is Big Confusion, and the odds therefore favor a trading range for the 1st hour or two, and then a trading range day.
Pre-Open market analysis
The Emini was in a small range for most of yesterday. It sold off into the close. This was probably the result of some profit taking before Comey’s hearing on Russia and Trump on Thursday. Since the weekly chart is in an extreme buy climax, there is an increased chance of a strong reversal down.
Overnight Emini Globex trading
The Emini is up 1 point in the Globex market. Today will probably continue the trading range of the past 2 days. This is because the Emini is getting neutral before the Comey hearing on Thursday. Since Comey has a history of making shocking statements, there is an increased risk of a big move during the hearings that begin on Thursday.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
The EURUSD Forex market rallied from a 15 year low this year. Furthermore, the current rally on the weekly chart was a lower low major trend reversal. The rally is now testing the November 9 major lower high. In addition, most major reversals lead to trading ranges and not new trends.
The momentum up is strong enough to make a break above that high likely. Yet, the bears want a lower high. This is because the monthly chart is still in a bear trend, and lower highs are a sign that the strong down trend is strong.
Trading ranges disappoint bulls and bears. The bears will be disappointed by a break above the November high. Yet, the bulls will be disappointed if the rally then fails to break strongly above the 2 year range. Since trading ranges continue indefinitely, the odds are that the Emini will get above the November high, but not far above the 2 year high.
Overnight EURUSD Forex trading
The EURUSD Forex market sold off 70 pips overnight. But, it has been in a 30 pip range for the past 3 hours. Since it is still in a 3 week trading range, there has been bad follow-through after strong moves up and down. While the selloff might be a start of a move down to the bottom of the range at around 1.1200, most day traders are mostly scalping.
The momentum down last night was strong enough so that the 2 hour rally will probably fail. Consequently, bears will sell the rally. Yet, they will probably take profits near the overnight low. All financial markets will probably be mostly sideways before Thursday’s Comey hearing.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow
Today was the 3rd sideways day. Traders are neutral going into Comey’s testimony tomorrow. Because of Comey’s history of making surprise comments, there is an increased chance of a trend day tomorrow.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly candlestick chart and for what to expect going into next week.