Emini and Forex Trading Update:
Friday March 26, 2021
Pre-Open market analysis of daily chart
- Reversed up from 50% pullback from 3-week rally, and from test to below open of the month.
- Yesterday is an Emini buy signal bar for a 2-week High 2 bull flag.
- Bulls want end of the quarter window dressing to lead to a new high, by the end of March on Wednesday.
- Still in Small Pullback Bear Trend since March 17 high, but more likely bull flag than bear trend reversal. Bears needed bear bar yesterday, but instead got a strong bull bar. Traders expect higher prices.
- Today is Friday, so weekly support and resistance can be targets, especially in the last hour. The most important magnets are the open of the week, last week’s low, and the 3,900 Big Round Number.
Overnight Emini Globex trading on 5-minute chart
- The Emini is up 7 points in the Globex market.
- If gaps above yesterday’s high, the gap will probably be small. Small gaps usually close in 1st hour.
- Yesterday was buy climax day, so there is only a 25% chance of a 2nd consecutive big bull day. If today is a bull day, it will probably be a weaker type of bull trend, like a Trending Trading Range Day, or a Broad Bull Channel.
- Day after buy climax day has 75% chance of at least a couple hours of sideways to down trading, that starts by the end of the 2nd hour. This is created by bulls taking some of their windfall profits.
- At open of week, so this week so far is perfect doji bar on weekly chart.
- Bulls want bull bar closing on its high, which would increase chance of new all-time high by end of quarter on Tuesday.
- Bears want at least a small bear body this week, which would increase the chance of sideways, and possibly lower trading next week. Odds favor the bulls at the moment.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- Bottom of 3-month wedge bear channel.
- 3 consecutive big bear days so climactic. Should get profit taking (short covering) bounce to above March 9 low within a week.
- Bulls need at least a micro double bottom for more than a 3-day pullback.
- On weekly chart (not shown), strong magnets below at 1.16 and 1.15.
Overnight EURUSD Forex trading on 5-minute chart
- The 60-minute chart (not shown), has been in a Small Pullback Bear Trend for more than 50 bars. That means the bears have big profits. Usually results in profit taking.
- Often transitions into trading range before bouncing. Has been sideways since early yesterday.
- On 5-minute chart, day traders have been selling reversals down, but have switched to scalping. They are now also buying reversals up for scalps, but expect a 1- to 3-day rally soon.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow
End of day summary
- As was likely, today spent a lot of time in a trading range. In fact, the day was an Expanding Triangle, but had a huge bull breakout in the final hour.
- It reversed down from a wedge rally on the open.
- It then reversed up from a lower low double bottom. The 2nd low got to within a tick of yesterday’s high but did not close the gap.
- The rally failed just below the February high, and then the Emini reversed down to a new low. It finally closed the gap above yesterday’s high.
- It rallied to a new high in the final hour, and broke above the February high.
- After yesterday’s reversal up and with today’s end of the quarter window dressing, traders expect at least slightly higher prices on Monday.
- Monday might gap up to a new high on the daily and weekly charts.
- Thursday might gap up to a new high on the monthly chart.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PT, and closes at 1:15 pm PT). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the Market Update page.