Emini and Forex Trading Update:
Thursday March 25, 2021
Pre-Open market analysis of daily chart
- Higher high major trend reversal with February high.
- Yesterday was big bear bar closing on its low. If today is another big bear day, especially if it is very big, odds will favor 10% correction down to 3,700 at bottom of 2021 trading range.
- Last week is sell signal bar on weekly chart, and today will probably gap below last week’s low. That would trigger the weekly sell signal. Bears want this week to be a big bear bar closing near its low.
- Bulls will try to prevent today from being a big bear day closing on its low. Traders would then conclude that the selloff is just a pullback, and they will look for a rally into the end of the quarter.
Overnight Emini Globex trading on 5-minute chart
- Emini is down 18 points in Globex session so it will probably gap below yesterday’s low.
- Since there is a higher high major trend reversal on daily chart, and yesterday was a big bear day, today is important. Increased chance of big bear trend day.
- Bulls would like strong bull day, but all they have to do is prevent big bear day. That would be enough to make the selloff more likely to be just a pullback from the March 17 high.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- Bear channel since January 6.
- Magnets below on daily chart are November 11 higher low, bottom of wedge, and measured move target.
- Most important magnet is November 4 low at 1.16 because that was start of final leg up of wedge rally on weekly chart. I have been saying since January top that the selloff probably had to reach that low.
- Traders have bought below prior lows so might bounce again at any time.
- No sign of bottom. Traders will sell every rally, until the bulls start to get higher highs and lows.
Overnight EURUSD Forex trading on 5-minute chart
- Tuesday’s strong bear breakout weakened into bear channel yesterday. A channel is a weaker bear trend. Usually continues to lose momentum and evolves into trading range.
- Broad bear channel since yesterday so day traders have been buying and selling for scalps.
- Since a bear channel is a bear trend, higher probability of making money by selling rallies than by buying reversals up.
- Oversold so can get swing up at any time.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow
End of day summary
- Emini sold off on the open but reversed up from a micro double bottom. The selloff was a perfect 50% retracement of the 3-week rally and a test below the open of the month.
- Today is a buy signal bar for tomorrow on the daily chart. The bulls are hoping for enough end of the quarter window dressing to create a new all-time high by the time March ends on Tuesday.
- Still in Small Pullback Bear Trend since the March 17 high, but more likely a bull flag. Should go higher.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PT, and closes at 1:15 pm PT). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the Market Update page.
Thanks for posting these. I’m going through your coursework and I appreciate the fact you made it affordable!
Hi Al, For the EURUSD we got a Nice bounce at 8:30am EST. I was wondering how you determined that we were oversold, if we just broke out of the smaller bear flag and had two Big Bear Bars closing on their lows? Would the breakout be an indication of renewed bear strength?
Unfortunately, I have so many things to do that I cannot answer specific trading questions here. One indication of a market being oversold is if it is in a Small Pullback Trend for more than 50 bars. This has been on the 60-minute chart.