Emini and Forex Trading Update:
Friday March 19, 2021
Pre-Open market analysis of daily chart
- Yesterday was a bear day after a 5-day Emini micro wedge top. It opened near Wednesday’s open, and Wednesday was a big bull day.
- A big bear day after a big bull day with very little overlap of the bodies means trapped bulls, and increases the chance of lower prices today. However, consecutive strong bear trend days have been uncommon since October.
- The tail at the bottom of yesterday means the bears are hesitant.
- Yesterday’s range was not very big, and therefore yesterday was not strongly bearish.
- Yesterday is sell signal bar for higher high major trend reversal.
- 2-week tight bull channel makes minor reversal down more likely.
- Today is Friday so weekly support and resistance can be important in the final hour.
- The bears want week to close below the open, so this week will be a sell signal bar on the weekly chart.
- Every day for 2 weeks has had at least one swing up and one swing down, so traders will expect that again today.
- If series of strong trend bars up or down in 1st hour, today could trend all day.
Overnight Emini Globex trading on 5-minute chart
- The Emini is down 2 points in the Globex market, and it has been sideways overnight. It briefly dipped below the 3,900 Big Round Number, but reversed up.
- Since yesterday was a sell climax day, there is a 75% chance of at least a couple hours of sideways to up trading today, starting by the end of the 2nd hour.
- Most days over the past 2 weeks have had at least one swing up and one swing down, so day traders will expect that today.
- Even though yesterday was a bear day, the Emini is in a strong bull trend on the daily chart. Consecutive big bear days have been rare since late October. If today is a bear day, it will probably not be a big bear day.
- Today is Friday and there is often a trend in the final hour of the end of the week, toward weekly support or resistance.
- The bulls want the week to close above, or at least near the open, which is the most important magnet this week.
- The bears want the week to close near the low so that this week will be a credible sell signal bar on the weekly chart.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- 7-day tight trading range with both double top bear flag, and double bottom bull flag so Breakout Mode.
- Bigger double top has measured move target below November 11 low, which was start of bull channel.
- Most important target for bears is November low, which is start of final leg up of wedge on weekly chart (I will show in weekend post).
- Today is Friday so support and resistance on weekly chart can be important at the end of the day. The bulls want the week to close back above the open of the week. The week is a bear inside bar on the weekly chart so far. If it stays this way, it will be a Low 1 sell signal bar.
Overnight EURUSD Forex trading on 5-minute chart
- Today so far has had follow-through selling after yesterday’s strong reversal down. But today has been in a broad bear channel since late yesterday and the range is small. Day traders have been selling, like yesterday, but they now have also been buying. They are trading reversals for 10- to 20-pip scalps.
- The last leg down broke below the neckline of a 2-day double top bear flag. The bears want a 2nd leg down, and a 30-pip measured move down.
- Bulls want today to close near the high, so that today will be buy signal bar on the daily chart on Monday for a double bottom with Tuesday’s low.
- Bears want today to close below Tuesday’s low, which is the neckline of the small double top bear flag on the daily chart.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow
End of day summary
- Reversed up from sell climax on open. There was a High 2 bottom.
- Rallied in bull channel for 3 hours and then entered a tight trading range.
- Sold off to below the open at the close, so today had a bear body on the daily chart. Since today closed in the middle of the range and near the open, it was a trading range day.
- Bear bar on weekly chart and small double top. But tight bull channel and 4,000 magnet above so probably minor reversal.
- Next week is final full week of 1st quarter. With a strong 1st 3 months, many funds will buy the best stocks to make their portfolios look good for quarterly report (window dressing). This increases the chance of higher prices next week.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PT, and closes at 1:15 pm PT). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the Market Update page.
With the reason of bar 16 was a good FT of BO after bar 15, I took this H1 buy, placed my stop below 13 and held for a swing. If there would be a reversal, should I use this reason to expect that reversal to be failed and just a pullback of the bulls?