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Emini outside up day formed just below 4,000 Big Round Number

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Emini and Forex Trading Update:
Thursday March 18, 2021

I will update again at the end of the day.

Pre-Open market analysis of daily chart

  • Yesterday traded below Tuesday’s low and then above its high following the FOMC announcement. Yesterday was therefore an Emini outside up day. The Emini also made another new all-time high.
  • 10-day rally in tight bull channel so traders expect higher prices.
  • Testing 4,000 Big Round Number, and reversals often come from just below major resistance.
  • A reversal down today would create 6-day micro wedge top. If today closes in its lower half, it will be sell signal bar for tomorrow on the daily chart.
  • If the week closes below the open of the week, this week will have a bear body and be a sell signal bar on the weekly chart.

Overnight Emini Globex trading on 5-minute chart

  • Down 25 points in Globex session.
  • Overnight selloff has been in Spike and Channel Bear Trend, so traders should expect break above bear trend line, and at least a couple hours of sideways to up trading today.
  • Open of week has been magnet all week, and week ends tomorrow. Bears want week to close below the open, so that this week will have a bear body, and be a sell signal bar on weekly chart.
  • As always, if there is a series of strong trend bars in either direction in the 1st hour, traders will look for a strong trend day.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

Emini bull breakout after FOMC forming an Emini Outside Up day.

Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups).

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

  • Yesterday might be the 2nd leg sideways to up from the March 9 wedge bottom. If so, today could be forming double top bear flag.
  • Because of wedge on weekly chart (see last weekend report), market should reach November 4 low at some point, before breaking above January high.

Overnight EURUSD Forex trading on 5-minute chart

  • Trending down in overnight session, and reversed most of yesterday’s rally. Since in bear channel, bears prefer to sell rallies, and many are now scalping.
  • Since Spike and Channel Bear Trend, bulls are willing to buy reversals up for scalps.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow

Emini bear breakout below trading range

Here are several reasonable stop entry setups for today. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups).

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

End of day summary

  • Double bottom pullback led to 2-hour rally.
  • Rally lacked strong breakouts and was likely going to be wedge bull channel in trading range or a bull trap.
  • Strong selloff in 2nd half of day to below yesterday’s low. Likely to get follow-through selling tomorrow and maybe for several days.
  • Tomorrow is Friday so weekly support and resistance can be important at end of day. Targets open and low of week.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PT, and closes at 1:15 pm PT). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the Market Update page.

  • Al,
    On the GlobeX daily chart we have an o-o setup. Does an o-o usually hold as a MTR top or more of a final flag and we should expect higher prices above the o-o?
    Thank you

    • I saw that as well. With it coming late in a bull trend, if there is a bull breakout, there is an increased chance of it being a Final Bull Flag since it is a triangle on a smaller time frame (expanding triangle, but still a triangle).

      It is a small pattern and not a MTR, but it can be the sell setup for an MTR. In this case, there is an MTR with the February high. But given how strong the rally has been, there is less than a 30% chance of a break below leading to a major reversal.

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