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Emini rallying into the end of June

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Trading Update: Monday June 28, 2021

Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • Emini rallying all 5 days last week and broke out to new all-time high.
  • Last week of June tends to be up. There often is end-of-the-quarter window dressing and euphoria before the holiday.
  • 6-day bull micro channel so might get 1- or 2-day pullback, but bulls will buy the pullback.
  • Since breaking above a 3-month trading range, the Emini might accelerate up. The trading range was 200 points tall. and therefore the measured move target is 4,400.
  • The bears want a wedge top with the May 7 and June 14 highs, but any reversal will probably be minor.
  • Traders expect higher prices.
  • Final 3 trading days of month so increased chance of sharp move up or down this week, especially in the final hour on Wednesday.
  • The week of the 4th of July is typically the 2nd lowest volume of the year (Christmas week is the slowest). This is less of an issue now that most of the volume is traded by computers.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • Emini is up 6 points in the overnight Globex session.
  • The past 3 days were small and had a lot of trading range action so increased chance of more today.
  • Overbought after 5 day rally so might get bear trend day at any time, but bulls will buy any 1- to 2-day pullback.
  • Since overbought, increased chance of sideways trading into Friday’s unemployment report.

Friday’s Emini setups

Emini double bottom and broad bull channel. Emini rallying into end June.

Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups).

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries. 

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss. 

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

EURUSD Forex bear flag after sell climax
  • Today so far is 5th consecutive small day after a big sell climax. Looks like more sideways days early this week.
  • Bear breakout was strong enough to make lower prices more likely, but does not appear to be starting yet.
  • Bulls want reversal up to be start of Small Pullback Bull Trend.
  • If bulls get consecutive big bull days, then reversal back up into May/trading range will be likely.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow

Emini midday bull trend reversal

End of day summary

  • Today gapped to a new all-time high, but the gap was small and small gaps typically close early. It closed during the 1st bar.
  • Weak selloff for the 1st half of the day.
  • Bears failed to break below Friday’s low and and therefore failed to create an outside down day.
  • Midday reversal back up to yesterday’s high.
  • 7-day bull micro channel, but probably will get at least a 1-day pullback this week since 7 is getting extreme.
  • Bulls will buy the 1st 1- to 3-day pullback.
  • Should test around the 4,400 measured move target soon. Since seasonally strong and last week’s rally was strong, might get there this week.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PT, and closes at 1:15 pm PT). You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

  • Are the trade setups you give at the end of each day, all swing setups? Or are they a combination of swing and 2pt scalp setups?

    • Hi David,

      The trade setups are for swing trades. Text below chart has been modified adding the following for extra clarity:

      “My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

      It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.”

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