The Emini opened within a tight trading range, in a 2 day trading range, in light Holiday trading. The bears made 3 attempts to get down to the 60 minute moving average and failed. As I am writing, the bulls are now trying to reverse the market up, but they do not yet have consecutive strong bull trend bars, and they have not yet broken above lower highs within this 4 hour bear channel. Until there is a breakout with follow-through, the market will continue to be controlled by limit order traders who are scalping, betting breakouts up and down will fail.
The bears want a bear breakout below the small triple bottom of the first 8 bars and they then will look for a measured move down.
Here are my observations before the open. Traders have been waiting for a breakout of a tight trading range. Today is the day before a holiday and the Emini has had consecutive trading range days. Today is likely to be another, but traders should always be ready for a surprise trend. Until there is a strong breakout with follow-through, traders will buy low, sell high, and scalp. If there is a strong breakout with follow-through, they will swing trade because the Emini would then be in a trend and will be likely to have at least two legs.
Day trading outlook for tomorrow’s Emini price action
The Emini has been very quiet this week with most of the time within tight trading ranges. However, it closed again at a new all-time high.
Tomorrow is a holiday and the Emini closes early on Friday. It is the last day of the month, but there are no monthly support or resistance targets nearby. It is also the last day of the week. It is above one trend channel line, which is currently around 2049, but below a higher one, which is above 2080. Both are close to the current market and both are magnets all day on Friday, especially in the final hour.
The Emini continues to be overbought, but the trend up can last a long time. Since it is at the top of the weekly channel, it will probably begin to go sideways for about 5 bars (5 weeks) on the weekly chart. It is still in a strong bull trend. As overbought as it is, there has been so little selling pressure that the downside risk is small until that pressure develops. When the market is this overbought, it is possible for a single huge bear bar to create enough selling pressure to convert the strong bull trend into a trading range. It is more likely that the Emini would enter a tight trading range on the weekly chart.
Premarket price action analysis
See yesterday’s intraday market update report for today’s premarket analysis. Once there, scroll down to the heading, Day trading outlook for tomorrow’s Emini price action.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.