{"id":115844,"date":"2021-05-14T06:20:00","date_gmt":"2021-05-14T13:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=115844"},"modified":"2021-05-14T14:31:05","modified_gmt":"2021-05-14T21:31:05","slug":"emini-bounce-after-3-day-collapse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/analysis\/market-update\/emini-bounce-after-3-day-collapse\/","title":{"rendered":"Emini bounce after 3 day collapse"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini and Forex Trading Update:<br>Friday May 14, 2021<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pre-Open market analysis of daily chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Wednesday was big bear day that closed far below bottom of 4-week trading range. A 3-day collapse.<\/li><li>Weekly chart has big bear bar, and Globex weekly chart has OO pattern (consecutive outside bars, so Breakout Mode).<\/li><li>Yesterday&#8217;s low was above Wednesday&#8217;s low, and its high was below Wednesday high. It was therefore an inside day. <\/li><li>The high was at the resistance of last week&#8217;s low, and the bottom of the 4-week trading range.<\/li><li>Yesterday closed just above its midpoint, and it is therefore a weak buy signal bar for today, for a High 1 pullback in the yearlong bull trend.<\/li><li>The 3-day selloff from above the 4-week trading range to below its low, was surprisingly strong. A Bear Surprise typically has at least a small 2<sup>nd<\/sup> leg sideways to down.<\/li><li>Traders therefore expect a test down within a few days.<\/li><li>There is a 50% chance that a 10% correction has begun. I will write about this in my weekend blog.<\/li><li>What happens over the next several days will make the probability either favor the bulls, or the bears for at least a couple weeks.<\/li><li>Today is Friday, so weekly support and resistance are important.<\/li><li>Bulls want week to close above last week&#8217;s low, above bottom of 4-week trading range, and above midpoint of the week. If they succeed, next week will probably be sideways to up.<\/li><li>The more the week closes below that resistance, and near its low, the more traders will expect lower prices next week.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Overnight Emini Globex trading on 5-minute chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Up 25 points in the Globex session, so might gap above yesterday&#8217;s high.<\/li><li>A gap up would create a 3-day island bottom, but island tops and bottoms are usually minor reversal patterns. <\/li><li>Small gaps typically close in 1<sup>st<\/sup> hour, and are then not important.<\/li><li>Increased chance of big bull trend day today, because bulls want to retake control and resume the yearlong bull trend. <\/li><li>If today is bull trend, bulls want close to be in or above the big gap above Tuesday&#8217;s high. <\/li><li>If there is an early rally, the bears will try to get a midday reversal down. They want today to be a sell signal bar on the daily chart, which they hope is beginning a Small Pullback Bear Trend.<\/li><li>Most days have a lot of trading range price action, but if there is a series of strong trend bars in the 1<sup>st<\/sup> hour in either direction, there would be an increased chance of a strong trend day. <\/li><li>Since today is Friday, there is an increased chance of a strong move in the final hour.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Emini setups<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-bull-trend-from-the-open-and-then-trading-range.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-bull-trend-from-the-open-and-then-trading-range-680x383.png\" alt=\"Emini bull trend from the open and then trading range after 3-day collapse.\" class=\"wp-image-115989\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-bull-trend-from-the-open-and-then-trading-range-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-bull-trend-from-the-open-and-then-trading-range-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-bull-trend-from-the-open-and-then-trading-range-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-bull-trend-from-the-open-and-then-trading-range-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-bull-trend-from-the-open-and-then-trading-range.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day (see Online Course\/BTC Daily Setups).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex market trading strategies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex daily chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/EURUSD-Forex-double-bottom-pullback-after-wedge-top-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/EURUSD-Forex-double-bottom-pullback-after-wedge-top-1-680x383.png\" alt=\"EURUSD Forex double bottom pullback after wedge top\" class=\"wp-image-116007\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/EURUSD-Forex-double-bottom-pullback-after-wedge-top-1-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/EURUSD-Forex-double-bottom-pullback-after-wedge-top-1-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/EURUSD-Forex-double-bottom-pullback-after-wedge-top-1-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/EURUSD-Forex-double-bottom-pullback-after-wedge-top-1-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/EURUSD-Forex-double-bottom-pullback-after-wedge-top-1.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>3-day pullback from double bottom bull flag (April 22 and May 5)<\/li><li>Double bottom pullback buy signal triggered today when today went above yesterday&#8217;s high<\/li><li>Yesterday was a bull doji day, which is a weak buy signal bar<\/li><li>But it is also bad follow-through for the bears after Wednesday&#8217;s big bear bar.<\/li><li>Bears are hoping that Wednesday&#8217;s selloff is the start of a 2-week leg down, and not just a pullback in the 6-week bull trend.<\/li><li>Bears need reversal down today, or Monday, for lower high major trend reversal.<\/li><li>Because yesterday was a bad follow-through day for the bears, and last week&#8217;s 2-day rally was strong, the odds slightly favor slightly higher prices, and possibly a test of May 11 high next week.<\/li><li>Bad follow-through for the bears and a weak buy signal bar means confusion, which is a hallmark of a trading range. Traders expect every strong leg up or down to reverse.<\/li><li>The EURUSD has been sideways for 4 weeks, and it is back in the January\/February range. There is now a 5-month trading range, and it is within a 10 month trading range.<\/li><li>Since the April rally was strong, the EURUSD might have to go sideways to up for another couple weeks, before the bears might be able to get a leg down to the bottom of the 10-month range.<\/li><li>Today is the last trading day of the week. This week so far is a bear bar on the weekly chart. The more this week closes near the low of the week, the more likely next week will trade down.<\/li><li>The more this week closes toward the middle or high of the week, the more likely next week will trade sideways to up.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Overnight EURUSD Forex trading on 5-minute chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Early strong rally for 1<sup>st<\/sup> half of overnight session. It triggered a buy signal on the daily chart when it went above yesterday&#8217;s high.<\/li><li>Since there was a 30-pip selloff a few hours ago, there is an increased chance of a trading range. <\/li><li>The overnight bull trend makes it is better to look to buy pullbacks.<\/li><li>That 30-pip selloff will make day traders willing to sell reversals down from the high, if there are strong sell setups.  <\/li><li>The bulls want today to close above yesterday&#8217;s high. They would like today to close near the high of the day, which would increase the chance of higher prices on Monday.<\/li><li>Bulls would like today to close above the open of the week, but that is probably too far above, given that there was a 30-pip selloff a few hours ago.<\/li><li>The bears want a reversal down, and for today to close on its low. Today would then be a sell signal bar on the daily chart. They currently have only a 20% chance of success.<\/li><li>At a minimum, the bears want today to close below yesterday&#8217;s high. That would make Monday more likely to be sideways than up.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary of today&#8217;s S&amp;P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-small-pullback-bull-trend-into-gap.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-small-pullback-bull-trend-into-gap-680x383.png\" alt=\"Emini small pullback bull trend into gap\" class=\"wp-image-116022\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-small-pullback-bull-trend-into-gap-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-small-pullback-bull-trend-into-gap-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-small-pullback-bull-trend-into-gap-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-small-pullback-bull-trend-into-gap-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-small-pullback-bull-trend-into-gap.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups for today. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day (see Online Course\/BTC Daily Setups).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">End of day summary<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Gap up and Bull Trend From The Open. After Tuesday&#8217;s gap down, now 3-day island bottom.<\/li><li>Rallied back into gap above Tuesday&#8217;s high and almost closed the gap.<\/li><li>Extremely strong tight bull channel after 9 am PT until the test of Monday&#8217;s low, so better to only buy. Most pullbacks were only 1 bar and all were small.<\/li><li>Late pullback to EMA, which happens 99.9% of all days.<\/li><li>Consecutive big bull bars on daily chart so probably at least slightly higher early next week.<\/li><li>Now, slightly more likely will get new high before 10% correction. <\/li><li>Odds will be greater if Monday is a strong bull day.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em>See the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trading Room<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders can see the end of the day <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/profile.php?mode=profil&amp;sub=profile_prefer&amp;mod=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&amp;P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">trading room<\/a>. We offer a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Charts use Pacific Time<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PT, and closes at 1:15 pm PT). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Emini and Forex Trading Update:Friday May 14, 2021 Pre-Open market analysis of daily chart Wednesday was big bear day that closed far below bottom of 4-week trading range. A 3-day collapse. Weekly chart has big bear bar, and Globex weekly chart has OO pattern (consecutive outside bars, so Breakout Mode). Yesterday&#8217;s low was above Wednesday&#8217;s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":116006,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"shadow","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[281,60],"class_list":{"0":"post-115844","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-market-update","8":"tag-eurusd-forex","9":"tag-sp-emini","10":"entry","11":"override","12":"shadow"},"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/EURUSD-Forex-double-bottom-pullback-after-wedge-top.png","author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115844","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=115844"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115844\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/116006"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=115844"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=115844"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=115844"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}