{"id":118799,"date":"2021-07-22T06:20:00","date_gmt":"2021-07-22T13:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=118799"},"modified":"2021-07-24T07:31:02","modified_gmt":"2021-07-24T14:31:02","slug":"emini-follow-through-buying-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/analysis\/market-update\/emini-follow-through-buying-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Emini follow-through buying but July still might close below open."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trading Update: Thursday July 22, 2021<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini pre-open market analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini daily chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Yesterday saw Emini follow-through buying after Monday&#8217;s big bull reversal. <\/li><li>Since yesterday had a bull body, it confirmed the reversal. That increases the chance of at least a small 2<sup>nd<\/sup> leg sideways to up after the 1<sup>st<\/sup> pullback.<\/li><li>There is now a 50% chance of a new high. That means that there is still a 50% chance of a lower high.<\/li><li>A lower high would lead either to a bear trend or a trading range. A trading range is always at least slightly more likely.<\/li><li>What happens if there is a new high next week? The bulls want the bull trend to continue forever. That is not going to happen. <\/li><li>The next reasonable targets are the measured move up from the 3-month trading range at 4,404, the top of the bull channel at around 4,500, and the measured move up based on the height of the pandemic crash at 4,537.<\/li><li>The Emini has been sideways in July. Trading ranges resist breaking out. Therefore, there might be more sellers than buyers at the new high, which would be a break above the trading range.<\/li><li>I have been saying that July will probably have a bear body on the monthly chart when July closes next Friday. It could make a new high and then sell off to below the open of the month before the month ends next Friday. <\/li><li>The more the reversal up continues, the more likely the bulls will get a 6<sup>th<\/sup> consecutive bull bar on the monthly chart. That has not happened in 10 years. Therefore, a 7<sup>th<\/sup> consecutive bull bar will be even more unlikely, which means August would then probably have a bear body.<\/li><li>While it is less likely after the 2-day rally, the bears still have better than a 50% chance of creating a bear body in July. The Emini is not too far above the open at the moment. Also, next Wednesday&#8217;s FOMC announcement is a catalyst. It could lead to a big move up or down, and that means there is the potential for a move down below the open.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Emini is unchanged in the overnight Globex session.<\/li><li>Monday was a strong bull trend. Trends tend to weaken as they progress. Yesterday was also a bull trend, but it was in a bull channel, which is a weaker trend.<\/li><li>A bull channel usually behaves like a bear flag in that a breakout is more likely to be below the channel than above.<\/li><li>That increases the chance of a swing down today, which would break below yesterday&#8217;s bull trend line.<\/li><li>A bull channel typically evolves into a trading range. The market usually has to go sideways at least 10 &#8211; 20 bars before the bears can get a trend reversal. <\/li><li>Even if there is a trading range today, the odds are still greater that the 2-day bull trend will resume for at least one more leg sideways to up than it is that it will reverse.<\/li><li>So what should traders expect for today? While a trend up or down can always happen, the loss of momentum yesterday increases the chance of at least a couple hours of trading range trading today. Also, today will probably be sideways or down after 2 big bull days in a month-long trading range.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Emini setups<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Emini-bull-channel-4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Emini-bull-channel-4-680x383.png\" alt=\"Emini bull channel. Emini follow-through buying.\" class=\"wp-image-118901\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Emini-bull-channel-4-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Emini-bull-channel-4-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Emini-bull-channel-4-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Emini-bull-channel-4-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Emini-bull-channel-4.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day (see Online Course\/BTC Daily Setups).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex market trading strategies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex daily chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/EURUSD-Forex-weak-wedge-bottom-in-bear-channel.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/EURUSD-Forex-weak-wedge-bottom-in-bear-channel-680x383.png\" alt=\"EURUSD Forex weak wedge bottom in bear channel\" class=\"wp-image-118915\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/EURUSD-Forex-weak-wedge-bottom-in-bear-channel-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/EURUSD-Forex-weak-wedge-bottom-in-bear-channel-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/EURUSD-Forex-weak-wedge-bottom-in-bear-channel-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/EURUSD-Forex-weak-wedge-bottom-in-bear-channel-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/EURUSD-Forex-weak-wedge-bottom-in-bear-channel.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Consecutive wedge bottoms since June 18. That increases the odds of a break above the month-long bear trend line and then a rally up to the July 9 lower high. The rally could reach the June 25 high over the next few weeks.<\/li><li>Today triggered buy signal, but so far is a small bear day. It has been a trading range day on the 5-minute chart.<\/li><li>A buy signal in a tight bear channel is low probability. Many bulls will wait to buy until they see a couple big bull bars or a breakout above the EMA.<\/li><li>Until then, odds favor at least slightly lower prices.<\/li><li>Sideways for 4 days, which increases the chance of more sideways, possibly until Wednesday&#8217;s FOMC. <\/li><li>If today closes near its low, it will be a Low 1 sell signal bar for tomorrow. But after 4 sideways days and consecutive wedges, it would be a weak signal, just like yesterday was a weak buy signal. That means sideways is more likely than up or down.<\/li><li>The bears want the month-long tight bear channel to continue to below the March low, which is also a measured move target. Because of the wedge bottom, they would like a collapse below the bottom of the bear channel to below that March low. <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary of today&#8217;s S&amp;P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Emini-higher-low-double-bottom-major-trend-reversal.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Emini-higher-low-double-bottom-major-trend-reversal-680x383.png\" alt=\"Emini higher low double bottom major trend reversal\" class=\"wp-image-118932\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Emini-higher-low-double-bottom-major-trend-reversal-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Emini-higher-low-double-bottom-major-trend-reversal-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Emini-higher-low-double-bottom-major-trend-reversal-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Emini-higher-low-double-bottom-major-trend-reversal-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Emini-higher-low-double-bottom-major-trend-reversal.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">End of day summary<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Trading range day for the 1<sup>st<\/sup> half of the day.<\/li><li>Strong rally at midday from a higher low double bottom with yesterday&#8217;s strong rally.<\/li><li>Closed on the high so possible gap up tomorrow.<\/li><li>Only 20 points below all-time high so might make new high tomorrow.<\/li><li>If so, then this week will be outside up week. That would increase chance of higher prices next week.<\/li><li>Tomorrow is Friday so weekly support and resistance can be important, especially in the final hour. <\/li><li>The open of the week is probably too far below to be a magnet. <\/li><li>Last week&#8217;s high is the all-time high and that is an important magnet.<\/li><li>The more the week closes near its high and above last week&#8217;s high, the more likely next week will trade higher.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em>See the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trading Room<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders can see the end of the day <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/profile.php?mode=profil&amp;sub=profile_prefer&amp;mod=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&amp;P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">trading room<\/a>. We offer a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Charts use Pacific Time<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trading Update: Thursday July 22, 2021 Emini pre-open market analysis Emini daily chart Yesterday saw Emini follow-through buying after Monday&#8217;s big bull reversal. Since yesterday had a bull body, it confirmed the reversal. That increases the chance of at least a small 2nd leg sideways to up after the 1st pullback. There is now a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":118901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"shadow","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[281,60],"class_list":{"0":"post-118799","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-market-update","8":"tag-eurusd-forex","9":"tag-sp-emini","10":"entry","11":"override","12":"shadow"},"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Emini-bull-channel-4.png","author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118799","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=118799"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118799\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/118901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=118799"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=118799"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=118799"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}