{"id":121446,"date":"2021-09-15T06:20:00","date_gmt":"2021-09-15T13:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=121446"},"modified":"2021-09-15T13:45:09","modified_gmt":"2021-09-15T20:45:09","slug":"emini-bull-trend-line","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/analysis\/market-update\/emini-bull-trend-line\/","title":{"rendered":"Emini at bull trend line and has 4 bear bars"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trading Update: Wednesday September 15, 2021<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini pre-open market analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini daily chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Emini at bull trend line with yesterday the 4<sup>th<\/sup> consecutive big bear bar in the 2-week selloff. That is unusual, and it therefore today should form a bull bar.<\/li><li>The Emini will probably soon stop going down and begin to go sideways into next Wednesday&#8217;s FOMC announcement. That means it should soon go sideways to up for a few days.<\/li><li>It is just above the 50-day MA and it might have to fall a little further first. It could also test the August 19 higher low.<\/li><li>Most recent days had early selloffs. If there is an early selloff today, there will probably be a reversal back up and close above the open.<\/li><li>The Emini closed below the daily bull channel again yesterday. Traders are deciding if the Emini will finally break far below the channel and evolve into a trading range. A 2<sup>nd<\/sup> consecutive close below the channel would increase the chance of lower prices over the next few days.<\/li><li>The Emini should begin a 15% correction in September or October. It might have already begun.<\/li><li>There is a small chance of a collapse far below the bull trend line over the next 2 weeks. Next week&#8217;s FOMC report could be the catalyst.<\/li><li>While trends resist change, there are factors that I have discussed in the weekend blogs that are increasing the chance of the bull trend on the daily chart reversing down for a couple months.<\/li><li>There is now a 50% chance that the September 2 high will remain the high for the rest of the year. <\/li><li>The September 2 high was just slightly above the measured move based on the height of the pandemic crash. <\/li><li>Because of the unusual streak of bull bars on the monthly chart, there should be a couple consecutive bear bars starting this month or next.<\/li><li>That should result in at least a 15% correction before the end of the year. <\/li><li>The Emini should fall 15% before rallying 15%.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Emini is up 5 points in the overnight Globex session.<\/li><li>Yesterday sold off in a Spike and Channel Bear Trend. There is therefore a 75% chance of a couple hours of sideways to up trading that begins by the end of the 2<sup>nd<\/sup> hour. <\/li><li>The channel typically ends up being a bear leg in what will become a trading range. That channel is 30 points tall. <\/li><li>If today rallies, it could take hours to get back to the start of the channel, just above 4450 and around the 60-minute EMA.<\/li><li>There is a 25% chance of a strong break below yesterday&#8217;s wedge bottom and then a 30-point measured move down.<\/li><li>The Emini has sold off relentlessly to the bottom of the daily and weekly channels. Also, it is just above the 50-day MA, which has been reliable support for over a year. <\/li><li>The Emini will probably bounce for several days starting today or tomorrow. It might test the 4500 Big Round Number before the FOMC meeting.<\/li><li>A bear trend should begin within a month. It might have already started. That increases the chance of a surprisingly big bear day in an oversold market.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Emini setups<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-bear-trend-from-the-open-and-wedge-bottom.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-bear-trend-from-the-open-and-wedge-bottom-680x383.png\" alt=\"Emini bear trend from the open and wedge bottom. Emini at bull trend line.\" class=\"wp-image-121533\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-bear-trend-from-the-open-and-wedge-bottom-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-bear-trend-from-the-open-and-wedge-bottom-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-bear-trend-from-the-open-and-wedge-bottom-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-bear-trend-from-the-open-and-wedge-bottom-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-bear-trend-from-the-open-and-wedge-bottom.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day (see Online Course\/BTC Daily Setups).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex market trading strategies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex daily chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/EURUSD-Forex-higher-low-major-trend-reversal-but-tight-trading-range.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/EURUSD-Forex-higher-low-major-trend-reversal-but-tight-trading-range-680x383.png\" alt=\"EURUSD Forex higher low major trend reversal but tight trading range\" class=\"wp-image-121557\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/EURUSD-Forex-higher-low-major-trend-reversal-but-tight-trading-range-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/EURUSD-Forex-higher-low-major-trend-reversal-but-tight-trading-range-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/EURUSD-Forex-higher-low-major-trend-reversal-but-tight-trading-range-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/EURUSD-Forex-higher-low-major-trend-reversal-but-tight-trading-range-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/EURUSD-Forex-higher-low-major-trend-reversal-but-tight-trading-range.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Yesterday triggered a High 2 bull flag buy signal, but Monday had a bear body and it followed a bear bar on Friday. Also, the bear channel from the September 3 high was tight. This was a weak buy setup.<\/li><li>There were sellers above Monday&#8217;s high, and yesterday closed back near the open. A doji bar is a weak entry bar.<\/li><li>A weak entry bar and a weak buy signal usually does not lead to a strong trend.<\/li><li>So far, today is a bull bar, but the EURUSD has been in a tight trading range for 6 days. Traders are deciding if the selloff from the September 3 high is a pullback from the August 20 rally or a resumption of the bear trend that began in May.<\/li><li>6 of the past 8 days have had bear bodies, although most were small and had prominent tails. This is therefore not as bearish as it could be.<\/li><li>The late August rally was strong, and it began at the bottom of a yearlong trading range.<\/li><li>The 7-day selloff was weak, and it looks more like a pullback in a bull trend than a resumption of the bear trend.<\/li><li>The strong rally from support and the weak reversal down makes it more likely that the selloff will form a higher low. Traders should expect a test of the September 3 high. <\/li><li>But because the EURUSD is in the middle of a 4-month trading range, the probabilities cannot strongly favor the bulls or bears. The chart is only slightly more bullish than bearish. That could quickly change with a couple big bear days closing near their lows.<\/li><li>All financial markets might be sideways into next week&#8217;s FOMC announcement. It could lead to a strong move in either direction.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary of today&#8217;s S&amp;P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-triangle-open-the-Small-Pullback-Bull-Trend-and-Bull-Micro-Channel-to-measured-move-target.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-triangle-open-the-Small-Pullback-Bull-Trend-and-Bull-Micro-Channel-to-measured-move-target-680x383.png\" alt=\"Emini triangle open the Small Pullback Bull Trend and Bull Micro Channel to measured move target\" class=\"wp-image-121578\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-triangle-open-the-Small-Pullback-Bull-Trend-and-Bull-Micro-Channel-to-measured-move-target-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-triangle-open-the-Small-Pullback-Bull-Trend-and-Bull-Micro-Channel-to-measured-move-target-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-triangle-open-the-Small-Pullback-Bull-Trend-and-Bull-Micro-Channel-to-measured-move-target-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-triangle-open-the-Small-Pullback-Bull-Trend-and-Bull-Micro-Channel-to-measured-move-target-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-triangle-open-the-Small-Pullback-Bull-Trend-and-Bull-Micro-Channel-to-measured-move-target.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">End of day summary<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Major Bull Surprise on the open on the 5-minute chart so likely to affect rest of day and possible next several days.<\/li><li>After triangle, bulls got strong breakout.<\/li><li>23-bar bull micro channel was the 2<sup>nd<\/sup> most extreme micro channel in 5 years. It was therefore a buy climax, and it led to profit taking and a trading range. <\/li><li>Bulls expected and got a new high of the day after the pullback.<\/li><li>Today was a buy climax so should have at least a couple hours of sideways to down trading that starts by the end of the 2<sup>nd<\/sup> hour tomorrow. Maybe a pullback to the 60-min EMA.<\/li><li>On the daily chart, yesterday was first time since pandemic crash with 4 consecutive bear bars. That made it unlikely today would be a 5<sup>th<\/sup> consecutive bear bar.<\/li><li>Today broke above yesterday&#8217;s high and formed a 2-bar reversal.<\/li><li>Today is a buy signal bar for a reversal up from the bottom of the bull channel and from just above the 50-day MA.<\/li><li>However, after 4 big bear days, the first reversal up might only last 2 to 3 days. The bulls might want a double bottom before trying for a new all-time high.<\/li><li>That means might go sideways into next Wednesday&#8217;s FOMC announcement.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em>See the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trading Room<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders can see the end of the day <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/profile.php?mode=profil&amp;sub=profile_prefer&amp;mod=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&amp;P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">trading room<\/a>. We offer a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Charts use Pacific Time<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trading Update: Wednesday September 15, 2021 Emini pre-open market analysis Emini daily chart Emini at bull trend line with yesterday the 4th consecutive big bear bar in the 2-week selloff. That is unusual, and it therefore today should form a bull bar. The Emini will probably soon stop going down and begin to go sideways [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":121533,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"shadow","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[1351,281,60],"class_list":{"0":"post-121446","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-market-update","8":"tag-bull-trend-line","9":"tag-eurusd-forex","10":"tag-sp-emini","11":"entry","12":"override","13":"shadow"},"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-bear-trend-from-the-open-and-wedge-bottom.png","author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121446","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=121446"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121446\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/121533"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=121446"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=121446"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=121446"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}