{"id":121771,"date":"2021-09-22T06:20:00","date_gmt":"2021-09-22T13:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=121771"},"modified":"2021-09-22T14:13:45","modified_gmt":"2021-09-22T21:13:45","slug":"september-fomc-statement","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/analysis\/market-update\/september-fomc-statement\/","title":{"rendered":"Potential big Emini move after today&#8217;s September FOMC statement"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trading Update: Wednesday September 22, 2021<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini pre-open market analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini daily chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Monday gapped down on daily and weekly charts and sold off strongly to far below the weekly bull channel and the 50-day MA.<\/li><li>It reversed up from below the 100-day MA, the 4300 Big Round Number, and below the August 19 and the August 3 lows, which means the August low.<\/li><li>Yesterday was a bear bar closing on its low. It is a Low 1 sell signal bar for today. The bulls, however, see it as a pullback from Monday&#8217;s strong reversal up from major support in a bull trend. Today&#8217;s FOMC statement report is a catalyst for a big move in either direction.<\/li><li>Traders are deciding if a 15% correction to below 4,000 has begun or if the selloff is just another one of many sharp selloffs since the pandemic crash. Traders bought every one, and they soon had a new high.<\/li><li>This is the 1<sup>st<\/sup> one to reach the 100-day MA since last October.<\/li><li>Additionally, the monthly chart should have consecutive bear bars starting in September or October because of the unusual streak of bull bars.<\/li><li>Therefore, this is different from all of the past selloffs. There is a 50% chance that September 2 will remain the high for 2021.<\/li><li>The 50-day MA has been support since last year&#8217;s reversal up. Monday&#8217;s selloff fell far enough below so that it might now be resistance. The Emini might test it today before or after the FOMC report.<\/li><li>There will probably be at least a small 2<sup>nd<\/sup> leg sideways to down within a week or so. However, if today&#8217;s FOMC announcement leads to a strong rally, Monday might be a V-bottom and the end of the selloff.<\/li><li>If there is a new high within the next few weeks, it will probably fail above 4600. August would then be a Final Bull  Flag.<\/li><li>Since the 100-day MA was support on Monday, the Emini might have to go sideways for a couple weeks as traders decide if the 100-day support is more important than the 50-day resistance.<\/li><li>It is common for a market to enter a trading range once it has a big reversal down from a buy climax. Traders then decide if the bull trend will resume or reverse.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Emini is up 25 points in the overnight Globex session.<\/li><li>Yesterday was a triangle and there was a small bear breakout at the end of the day. Today might open with a bull breakout after a failed bear breakout. That would increase the chance of a rally today.<\/li><li>Today will open around the 60-minute EMA, which might be resistance.<\/li><li>Magnets above are the 50-day MA on the daily chart and Friday&#8217;s low, which is the top of Monday&#8217;s big gap. Also, the midpoint of August is a magnet, and it is around those 2 other prices.<\/li><li>There is an FOMC statement report at 11 am PT today. <\/li><li>Trade the day like any other day until then, but day traders should exit ahead of the report. This is because there is a 75% chance of a big move in both directions in the 1<sup>st<\/sup> 10 minutes after the report.<\/li><li>Day traders can resume looking for trades after the 1<sup>st <\/sup>10 minutes.<\/li><li>Be open to anything. A relentless trend for the rest of the day in either direction only happens 20% of the time.<\/li><li>Therefore, expect at least one reversal.<\/li><li>About 10% of the time, there is no significant move after the report and the Emini just goes sideways.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Emini setups<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-Trading-range-day-that-closed-on-its-low.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-Trading-range-day-that-closed-on-its-low-680x383.png\" alt=\"Emini Trading range day that closed on its low ahead of FOMC statement report.\" class=\"wp-image-122008\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-Trading-range-day-that-closed-on-its-low-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-Trading-range-day-that-closed-on-its-low-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-Trading-range-day-that-closed-on-its-low-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-Trading-range-day-that-closed-on-its-low-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-Trading-range-day-that-closed-on-its-low.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption wp-block-paragraph\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day (see Online Course\/BTC Daily Setups).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption wp-block-paragraph\">My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption wp-block-paragraph\">It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption wp-block-paragraph\">If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex market trading strategies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex daily chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/EURUSD-tight-trading-range-and-head-and-shoulders-bottom-ahead-of-FOMC.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/EURUSD-tight-trading-range-and-head-and-shoulders-bottom-ahead-of-FOMC-680x383.png\" alt=\"EURUSD tight trading range and head and shoulders bottom ahead of FOMC\" class=\"wp-image-122048\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/EURUSD-tight-trading-range-and-head-and-shoulders-bottom-ahead-of-FOMC-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/EURUSD-tight-trading-range-and-head-and-shoulders-bottom-ahead-of-FOMC-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/EURUSD-tight-trading-range-and-head-and-shoulders-bottom-ahead-of-FOMC-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/EURUSD-tight-trading-range-and-head-and-shoulders-bottom-ahead-of-FOMC-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/EURUSD-tight-trading-range-and-head-and-shoulders-bottom-ahead-of-FOMC.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>There is an FOMC statement report at 11 am PT. That usually results in a sharp move in both directions within the 1<sup>st<\/sup> 10 minutes. Therefore, day traders should exit ahead of the report and wait at least 10 minutes before day trading again.<\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.forexfactory.com\/calendar\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">A FOMC statement report<\/a> is sometimes a catalyst for a big move that can last for several days.<\/li><li>Today so far is a small inside day and the past 2 days were also small after consecutive big bear bars closing near their lows. That is a Bear Surprise Breakout, and there is typically at least a small 2<sup>nd<\/sup> leg sideways to down.<\/li><li>That 2<sup>nd<\/sup> leg is sometimes just a single bar. <\/li><li>If today sells off and reverses up, it will create a micro double bottom with Monday&#8217;s low. If today then closes near its high, it would be a buy signal bar.<\/li><li>Traders would wonder if the Bear Surprise was simply a bear trap and another test of the bottom of the yearlong trading range.<\/li><li>A reversal up would be a higher low major trend reversal. A major reversal setup with a good signal bar has a 40% chance of actually leading to a trend reversal. In 60% of instances, it leads to a continuation of the trading range or a resumption of the selloff.<\/li><li>Additionally, it would be the right shoulder of a head and shoulders bottom. The August 11 low would be the left shoulder and the August 20 low would be the head. <\/li><li>Markets have inertia. They tend to continue what they have been doing.<\/li><li>The EURUSD has been a 200-pip trading range for 4 months. That trading range is at the bottom of a 700-pip yearlong trading range.<\/li><li>Since the EURUSD is near the bottom of both, there is an increase chance of a reversal up within a few weeks. It could come at any time. <\/li><li>There might be a dip first below the November 4, 2020 bottom of the range. <\/li><li>Traders will need a couple big bear bars closing on their lows and below that low before they concluding that the bear breakout was likely to succeed.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary of today&#8217;s S&amp;P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-bull-trend-from-the-open-then-trading-range-that-continued-after-FOMC-announcement.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-bull-trend-from-the-open-then-trading-range-that-continued-after-FOMC-announcement-680x383.png\" alt=\"Emini bull trend from the open then trading range that continued after FOMC announcement\" class=\"wp-image-122074\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-bull-trend-from-the-open-then-trading-range-that-continued-after-FOMC-announcement-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-bull-trend-from-the-open-then-trading-range-that-continued-after-FOMC-announcement-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-bull-trend-from-the-open-then-trading-range-that-continued-after-FOMC-announcement-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-bull-trend-from-the-open-then-trading-range-that-continued-after-FOMC-announcement-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-bull-trend-from-the-open-then-trading-range-that-continued-after-FOMC-announcement.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">End of day summary<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>The Emini began with a Major Bull Surprise and rallied in a Small Pullback Bull Trend. It was also a Spike and Channel Bull Trend.<\/li><li>The rally ended with a big doji bar and a buy climax.<\/li><li>There was a 2<sup>nd<\/sup> Major Bull Surprise Bar on the FOMC announcement. After a 1-bar 2<sup>nd<\/sup> leg up to just above the 4,400 Big Round Number and just below the top of the gap below Friday&#8217;s low, the Emini reversed down from a higher high major trend reversal.<\/li><li>It was in a trading range since 9 am PT, and it remained sideways after the FOMC.<\/li><li>It was a bull bar on the daily chart, but it had a big tail on top. This is a weak Low 1 sell signal bar.<\/li><li>The Emini might have to test above the 50-day MA before the bears will try for a 2<sup>nd<\/sup> leg down. <\/li><li>There is still a 50% chance that the rally will form a lower high and be followed by a 15% correction.<\/li><li>If the bulls begin to get bull bars closing near their highs, the odds of another new all-time high will increase.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>See the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trading Room<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Traders can see the end of the day <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/profile.php?mode=profil&amp;sub=profile_prefer&amp;mod=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&amp;P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">trading room<\/a>. We offer a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Charts use Pacific Time<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trading Update: Wednesday September 22, 2021 Emini pre-open market analysis Emini daily chart Monday gapped down on daily and weekly charts and sold off strongly to far below the weekly bull channel and the 50-day MA. It reversed up from below the 100-day MA, the 4300 Big Round Number, and below the August 19 and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":122008,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"shadow","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[281,344,60],"class_list":["post-121771","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-market-update","tag-eurusd-forex","tag-fomc-report","tag-sp-emini","entry","override","shadow"],"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-Trading-range-day-that-closed-on-its-low.png","author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121771","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=121771"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121771\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/122008"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=121771"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=121771"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=121771"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}