S&P500 Emini futures<\/h2>\n\n\n\nThe Monthly<\/em> Emini chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n![\"SP500](\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/Emini-Monthly-May-Doji-Bar-\u2013-Failed-Breakout-below-TR-680x383.png\" "\\"\\"")
<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n- The\u00a0May monthly Emini candlestick<\/a>\u00a0was almost a perfect doji bar closing above the February trading range low.<\/li>
- Last month, we said that odds slightly favor May to trade at least slightly lower and that traders will be monitoring whether May closes as a bear follow-through bar, or reverses up from a failed breakout below the trading range low, to close as a bull bar.<\/li>
- We have said that the bears will need a bear follow-through bar in May to convince traders that a deeper sell-off may be underway.\u00a0<\/li>
- May broke below the 9-month trading range low but reversed up to close at the upper half of the month\u2019s range instead. The bears failed to create bear follow-through bar.<\/li>
- The bears see the move down in May as the second leg down from the January top. They want a measured move down to 3600 based on the height of the 9-month trading range height.<\/li>
- Bulls want the breakout below the trading range low to fail and reverse back up. The bull\u2019s case of a failed breakout would have been stronger if they have gotten a bull bar closing near the high.<\/li>
- Nonetheless, by closing above the middle of the bar, the May candlestick slightly favor the bulls. Odds slightly favor June to trade at least slightly above May.<\/li>
- They see the move from the January top as a two legged pullback and a wedge bull flag (January 24, February 24 and May 20).<\/li>
- The targets for the bulls are May high and the middle of the 9-month trading range around 4400.<\/li>
- We have said while the Emini may test below the 9-month trading range, breakouts from a trading range have a 50% chance of failing. This remains true.<\/li>
- Earlier, Al said that the February low did not quite reach the 20-month exponential moving average (EMA). Many traders would conclude that the average was not yet tested which increased the chance of the Emini going sideways to down until there is a low at least minimally below that average. That is one of the forces behind the current selloff.<\/li>
- May has adequately tested the 20-month EMA.<\/li>
- Al also said that the bull trend on the monthly chart has been very strong to make a bear trend on the monthly chart unlikely. This selloff should be a minor reversal on the monthly chart, which means the selloff will probably not go much below 3800 if it gets that far.\u00a0<\/li>
- The Emini reversed up from around 3800 in May.<\/li>
- The bears would have a better chance of a bear trend on the monthly chart after a test of the all-time high. Al has said many times that the Emini should enter a trading range for about a decade within the next few years, but picking the exact high is impossible.<\/li>
- It is always better to bet on at least one more new high. The trading range will probably have at least a couple of 30 \u2013 50% corrections, like the trading ranges in the 2000s and the 1970s.<\/li>
- For now, odds slightly favor a test above May high. Traders will be monitoring whether June closes as a strong bull bar above May, or a surprise bear bar closing near the low.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
The Weekly<\/em> S&P 500 Emini chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n![\"Sp500](\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/Emini-Weekly-No-Bull-Follow-through-Bar-\u2013-Stall-at-Feb-Low-680x383.png\" "\\"\\"")
<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n- This week\u2019s Emini candlestick<\/a>\u00a0was a bear doji bar with tails above and below, closing below last week\u2019s high but above February low.<\/li>
- Last week, we said that the bulls will need to create another bull follow-through bar to convince traders that a reversal higher may be underway.<\/li>
- This week was a bear doji. The bulls failed to get a follow-through bar.<\/li>
- The bulls want a failed breakout below the 9-month trading range.\u00a0<\/li>
- They see a wedge bull flag (Jan 24, Feb 24, and May 20) with an embedded parabolic wedge (April 26, May 2, and May 20) and want a reversal higher from a lower low major trend reversal.<\/li>
- We have said that the selloff from March 29 has been very strong. The bulls will need at least a micro double bottom or a strong reversal bar before they would be willing to buy aggressively. Last week was the strong reversal bar up.<\/li>
- They want at least a 2-legged sideways to up pullback.<\/li>
- The bears want the Emini to stall at a lower high around Feb\/March lows or around the 20-week exponential moving average or the bear trend line.<\/li>
- They want a re-test of May low and a continuation of the measured move down to 3600.<\/li>
- We have said that the sell-off since March is in a tight bear channel down. Odds are the pullback would be minor and traders expect at least a small second leg sideways to down move after a pullback because V-bottoms are not common. This remains true.<\/li>
- Al said that the 7th<\/sup> consecutive bear bar on the weekly chart was unsustainable and was a form of a climax. A 7-week streak has not happened in 21 years. Traders should expect a bounce soon and then an attempt at another low.\u00a0<\/li>
- Al also said that while the selloff could reach the pre-pandemic high just above 3300, which is a 38% correction, it should end before then. In January, he said the Emini should sell off in the 1st<\/sup> half of the year, and the selloff could be 20% and possibly reach 3700 to be followed by a rally in the 2nd<\/sup> half of the year. This remains true.<\/li>
- Since this week was a bear doji with a prominent tail below, it is a weaker sell signal bar for next week.<\/li>
- The bears will try to trigger the low 1 sell signal bar by trading below this week\u2019s low.\u00a0<\/li>
- Traders will be monitoring whether next week closes as a bear bar near the low or reverses higher and close near the high with a long tail below.<\/li>
- If next week closes as a bear bar near the low, odds of a re-test of May low increases.<\/li>
- Can next week trade higher without triggering the low 1? Yes, it is possible. The Emini should still be in the 2-legged sideways to up pullback phase, with the big bull spike last week as the first leg.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Trading room<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. Al talks about the detailed Emini price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room<\/a>. We offer a 2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nMarket analysis reports archive<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
![\"SP500](\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/Emini-Monthly-May-Doji-Bar-\u2013-Failed-Breakout-below-TR.png\" "\\"\\"")
<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n- The\u00a0May monthly Emini candlestick<\/a>\u00a0was almost a perfect doji bar closing above the February trading range low.<\/li>
- Last month, we said that odds slightly favor May to trade at least slightly lower and that traders will be monitoring whether May closes as a bear follow-through bar, or reverses up from a failed breakout below the trading range low, to close as a bull bar.<\/li>
- We have said that the bears will need a bear follow-through bar in May to convince traders that a deeper sell-off may be underway.\u00a0<\/li>
- May broke below the 9-month trading range low but reversed up to close at the upper half of the month\u2019s range instead. The bears failed to create bear follow-through bar.<\/li>
- The bears see the move down in May as the second leg down from the January top. They want a measured move down to 3600 based on the height of the 9-month trading range height.<\/li>
- Bulls want the breakout below the trading range low to fail and reverse back up. The bull\u2019s case of a failed breakout would have been stronger if they have gotten a bull bar closing near the high.<\/li>
- Nonetheless, by closing above the middle of the bar, the May candlestick slightly favor the bulls. Odds slightly favor June to trade at least slightly above May.<\/li>
- They see the move from the January top as a two legged pullback and a wedge bull flag (January 24, February 24 and May 20).<\/li>
- The targets for the bulls are May high and the middle of the 9-month trading range around 4400.<\/li>
- We have said while the Emini may test below the 9-month trading range, breakouts from a trading range have a 50% chance of failing. This remains true.<\/li>
- Earlier, Al said that the February low did not quite reach the 20-month exponential moving average (EMA). Many traders would conclude that the average was not yet tested which increased the chance of the Emini going sideways to down until there is a low at least minimally below that average. That is one of the forces behind the current selloff.<\/li>
- May has adequately tested the 20-month EMA.<\/li>
- Al also said that the bull trend on the monthly chart has been very strong to make a bear trend on the monthly chart unlikely. This selloff should be a minor reversal on the monthly chart, which means the selloff will probably not go much below 3800 if it gets that far.\u00a0<\/li>
- The Emini reversed up from around 3800 in May.<\/li>
- The bears would have a better chance of a bear trend on the monthly chart after a test of the all-time high. Al has said many times that the Emini should enter a trading range for about a decade within the next few years, but picking the exact high is impossible.<\/li>
- It is always better to bet on at least one more new high. The trading range will probably have at least a couple of 30 \u2013 50% corrections, like the trading ranges in the 2000s and the 1970s.<\/li>
- For now, odds slightly favor a test above May high. Traders will be monitoring whether June closes as a strong bull bar above May, or a surprise bear bar closing near the low.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
The Weekly<\/em> S&P 500 Emini chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n- This week\u2019s Emini candlestick<\/a>\u00a0was a bear doji bar with tails above and below, closing below last week\u2019s high but above February low.<\/li>
- Last week, we said that the bulls will need to create another bull follow-through bar to convince traders that a reversal higher may be underway.<\/li>
- This week was a bear doji. The bulls failed to get a follow-through bar.<\/li>
- The bulls want a failed breakout below the 9-month trading range.\u00a0<\/li>
- They see a wedge bull flag (Jan 24, Feb 24, and May 20) with an embedded parabolic wedge (April 26, May 2, and May 20) and want a reversal higher from a lower low major trend reversal.<\/li>
- We have said that the selloff from March 29 has been very strong. The bulls will need at least a micro double bottom or a strong reversal bar before they would be willing to buy aggressively. Last week was the strong reversal bar up.<\/li>
- They want at least a 2-legged sideways to up pullback.<\/li>
- The bears want the Emini to stall at a lower high around Feb\/March lows or around the 20-week exponential moving average or the bear trend line.<\/li>
- They want a re-test of May low and a continuation of the measured move down to 3600.<\/li>
- We have said that the sell-off since March is in a tight bear channel down. Odds are the pullback would be minor and traders expect at least a small second leg sideways to down move after a pullback because V-bottoms are not common. This remains true.<\/li>
- Al said that the 7th<\/sup> consecutive bear bar on the weekly chart was unsustainable and was a form of a climax. A 7-week streak has not happened in 21 years. Traders should expect a bounce soon and then an attempt at another low.\u00a0<\/li>
- Al also said that while the selloff could reach the pre-pandemic high just above 3300, which is a 38% correction, it should end before then. In January, he said the Emini should sell off in the 1st<\/sup> half of the year, and the selloff could be 20% and possibly reach 3700 to be followed by a rally in the 2nd<\/sup> half of the year. This remains true.<\/li>
- Since this week was a bear doji with a prominent tail below, it is a weaker sell signal bar for next week.<\/li>
- The bears will try to trigger the low 1 sell signal bar by trading below this week\u2019s low.\u00a0<\/li>
- Traders will be monitoring whether next week closes as a bear bar near the low or reverses higher and close near the high with a long tail below.<\/li>
- If next week closes as a bear bar near the low, odds of a re-test of May low increases.<\/li>
- Can next week trade higher without triggering the low 1? Yes, it is possible. The Emini should still be in the 2-legged sideways to up pullback phase, with the big bull spike last week as the first leg.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Trading room<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. Al talks about the detailed Emini price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room<\/a>. We offer a 2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nMarket analysis reports archive<\/h3>\n\n\n\n