{"id":174069,"date":"2023-03-23T06:20:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-23T13:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=174069"},"modified":"2023-03-24T22:59:09","modified_gmt":"2023-03-25T05:59:09","slug":"emini-surprise-outside-down-bar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/analysis\/emini-surprise-outside-down-bar\/","title":{"rendered":"Emini Surprise Outside Down Bar, 2nd Leg Down Likely"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trading Update: Thursday March 23, 2023<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">S&amp;P Emini pre-open market analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini daily chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Emini reversed down after yesterday\u2019s FOMC announcement. Yesterday&#8217;s bar is a surprise outside down bar, which means traders will expect a second leg down after any pullback. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>I have been saying for some time that there are trapped bulls who bought the March 6<sup>th<\/sup> low. While many of those bulls likely got out for a loss on the following bar (March 7<sup>th<\/sup>), plenty of bulls would be willing to scale in lower.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Yesterday tells traders that the bulls were so disappointed that they began selling out of longs several points below the March 6<sup>th<\/sup> low. The bears knew the bulls got trapped at the March 6<sup>th<\/sup> low, so they began establishing short positions at this price level.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Yesterday\u2019s bear reversal bar is a big enough surprise bar that it will likely have at least a small 2<sup>nd<\/sup> leg down. However, the bar is big, so there could be a deep pullback before the bar has a second leg down.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Yesterday\u2019s outside down bar is probably enough to flip the market back to Always In Short, based on the size of the bar.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bulls want to reverse yesterday\u2019s outside down bar. They bulls need to get a strong reversal bar today. Next, they will need two to three consecutive bulls bars to flip the market back to Always In Long. The market will likely have at least a small 2<sup>nd<\/sup> leg down.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Overall, yesterday\u2019s bar will likely have a second leg down. However, the size of the bar increases the risk of today being a bull bar and disappointing the bears before the market gets a second leg down.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Emini is up 16 points in the overnight Globex session.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Emini rallied during the overnight Globex session and is now developing a trading range with the overnight range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The best the bulls can expect is a trading range and bear flag. Traders will look to sell pullbacks of yesterday\u2019s big selloff (see above).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders should expect a trading range open today and a limit order market for the first 6-12 bars.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Yesterday\u2019s FOMC selloff was climactic. There is a 75% chance of a trading range lasting two hours and beginning before the end of the 2<sup>nd<\/sup> hour. There is a 50% chance of a brief selloff on the open, followed by two hours of trading range price action.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Because of how climactic yesterday was, traders should expect the downside to be limited today. This increases the risk of an early low of the day.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If the market gets a selloff on the open, begins to go sideways, and develops buying pressure, traders will look for an early low.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>As always, traders should expect a trading range until sufficient evidence of trending behavior exists.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Lastly, traders can consider waiting for a swing trade that usually forms before the end of the 2<sup>nd<\/sup> hour after forming a double top\/bottom or a wedge top\/bottom.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini intraday market update<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Emini gapped up and rallied from a trend from the open since bar 1. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>At the time of writing this (7:50 AM), the market is Always In Long. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The market will probably go sideways soon for several hours and decide on trend resumption or trend reversal in the session&#8217;s final hours. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bulls want to undo the damage caused by the bears. However, the bulls will likely be disappointed today and the day will probably not close on its high.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Since today is a trend from the open, there is a 60% chance the day will become a trading range.  There is only a 20% chance the trend from the open will last all day. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Emini setups<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/SP500-Emini-5-min-Chart-Bull-Trap-Then-Trading-Range-Ahead-of-FOMC.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/SP500-Emini-5-min-Chart-Bull-Trap-Then-Trading-Range-Ahead-of-FOMC-680x383.png\" alt=\"SP500 Emini 5-min Chart Bull Trap Then Trading Range Ahead of FOMC. Surprise outside down bar.\" class=\"wp-image-174204\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/SP500-Emini-5-min-Chart-Bull-Trap-Then-Trading-Range-Ahead-of-FOMC-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/SP500-Emini-5-min-Chart-Bull-Trap-Then-Trading-Range-Ahead-of-FOMC-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/SP500-Emini-5-min-Chart-Bull-Trap-Then-Trading-Range-Ahead-of-FOMC-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/SP500-Emini-5-min-Chart-Bull-Trap-Then-Trading-Range-Ahead-of-FOMC-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/SP500-Emini-5-min-Chart-Bull-Trap-Then-Trading-Range-Ahead-of-FOMC.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Al created the SP500 Emini charts.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course\/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex market trading strategies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex daily chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/EURUSD-Daily-Market-Testing-February-1st-Close.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/EURUSD-Daily-Market-Testing-February-1st-Close-680x383.jpg\" alt=\"EURUSD Daily: Market Testing February 1st Close\" class=\"wp-image-174223\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/EURUSD-Daily-Market-Testing-February-1st-Close-680x383.jpg 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/EURUSD-Daily-Market-Testing-February-1st-Close-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/EURUSD-Daily-Market-Testing-February-1st-Close-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/EURUSD-Daily-Market-Testing-February-1st-Close.jpg 1440w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The EURUSD is Always In Long and currently testing the February 1<sup>st<\/sup> close.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bears are hopeful that they will be able to form a lower high major trend reversal. However, the rally up from the March 15<sup>th<\/sup> low is strong enough that the first reversal down will probably fail.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This means the bears will likely need to develop more selling pressure before they get any major trend reversal.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>While the rally is strong, it is testing important resistance levels, such as the February 2<sup>nd<\/sup> stop entry short low, and is getting near the February 1<sup>st<\/sup> close. This will increase the odds of sideways trading soon.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Yesterday was a climactic bar, increasing the odds of sideways today. The market may sell off to around 50% of yesterday\u2019s range. Even if the market does sell off today, traders need to remember that the market is in a bull trend on the daily chart, which will limit the downside.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Overall, the market will probably reach the February 2<sup>nd<\/sup> close in the next few days.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary of today&#8217;s S&amp;P Emini futures price action<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/SP500-Emini-5-min-Chart-Bull-Trend-From-Open-Endless-Pullback-into-Bull-Trend-Reversal.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/SP500-Emini-5-min-Chart-Bull-Trend-From-Open-Endless-Pullback-into-Bull-Trend-Reversal-680x383.png\" alt=\"SP500 Emini 5-min Chart Bull Trend From Open Endless Pullback into Bull Trend Reversal\" class=\"wp-image-174400\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/SP500-Emini-5-min-Chart-Bull-Trend-From-Open-Endless-Pullback-into-Bull-Trend-Reversal-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/SP500-Emini-5-min-Chart-Bull-Trend-From-Open-Endless-Pullback-into-Bull-Trend-Reversal-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/SP500-Emini-5-min-Chart-Bull-Trend-From-Open-Endless-Pullback-into-Bull-Trend-Reversal-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/SP500-Emini-5-min-Chart-Bull-Trend-From-Open-Endless-Pullback-into-Bull-Trend-Reversal-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/SP500-Emini-5-min-Chart-Bull-Trend-From-Open-Endless-Pullback-into-Bull-Trend-Reversal.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Al created the SP500 Emini charts.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market open video review &#8212; Al Brooks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"rT8OGiv\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Emini Opening Review Thursday March 23 2023 - Al Brooks\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Gw4owdPyfek?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Duration 7min 36sec<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em>See the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trading Room<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">trading room<\/a> days. We offer a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Charts use Pacific Time<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trading Update: Thursday March 23, 2023 S&amp;P Emini pre-open market analysis Emini daily chart Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today Emini intraday market update Yesterday&#8217;s Emini setups Al created the SP500 Emini charts. Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5460,"featured_media":174204,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"shadow","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153,136],"tags":[281,339,60],"class_list":{"0":"post-174069","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-market-update","8":"category-analysis","9":"tag-eurusd-forex","10":"tag-outside-down","11":"tag-sp-emini","12":"entry","13":"override","14":"shadow"},"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/SP500-Emini-5-min-Chart-Bull-Trap-Then-Trading-Range-Ahead-of-FOMC.png","author_info":{"display_name":"Brad","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/author\/brad-wolff\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/174069","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5460"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=174069"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/174069\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/174204"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=174069"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=174069"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=174069"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}