{"id":188871,"date":"2023-09-10T01:30:00","date_gmt":"2023-09-10T08:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=188871"},"modified":"2023-09-09T12:03:29","modified_gmt":"2023-09-09T19:03:29","slug":"crude-oil-tight-bull-channel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/analysis\/crude-oil-tight-bull-channel\/","title":{"rendered":"Crude Oil Tight Bull Channel"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Overview: Crude Oil Futures<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The market formed a Crude Oil tight bull channel with some follow-through following last week&#8217;s breakout above the 41-week trading range. The bulls want a strong breakout above the trading range and a measured move based on the height of the 41-week trading range. The bears want a reversal down from a failed breakout above the trading range high and a parabolic wedge (Jul 13, Aug 10, and Sept 6).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Crude oil futures<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The <em>Weekly<\/em> crude oil chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Crude-Oil-Weekly-Market-Always-in-Long-or-Bull-Leg-in-TR.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Crude-Oil-Weekly-Market-Always-in-Long-or-Bull-Leg-in-TR-680x383.jpg\" alt=\"Crude Oil Weekly: Market Always in Long or Bull Leg in TR? Crude Oil Tight Bull Channel\" class=\"wp-image-189028\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Crude-Oil-Weekly-Market-Always-in-Long-or-Bull-Leg-in-TR-680x383.jpg 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Crude-Oil-Weekly-Market-Always-in-Long-or-Bull-Leg-in-TR-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Crude-Oil-Weekly-Market-Always-in-Long-or-Bull-Leg-in-TR-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Crude-Oil-Weekly-Market-Always-in-Long-or-Bull-Leg-in-TR-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Crude-Oil-Weekly-Market-Always-in-Long-or-Bull-Leg-in-TR.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>This week\u2019s candlestick on the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investing.com\/commodities\/crude-oil-streaming-chart\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">weekly Crude Oil chart<\/a>&nbsp;was a follow-through bull bar closing near its high.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Last week, we said that the odds slightly favor the market to trade at least a little higher and traders will see if the bulls can create follow-through buying or will the market trade slightly higher but reverse to close lower.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bulls managed to create follow-through buying following last week\u2019s breakout above the trading range high.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They want a strong breakout above the trading range and a measured move based on the height of the 41-week trading range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They need to create sustained follow-through buying to increase the odds of a successful breakout and reversal up.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If the market trades lower, they want a reversal up from a higher low major trend reversal.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bears want a reversal down from a failed breakout above the trading range high and a parabolic wedge (Jul 13, Aug 10, and Sept 6).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They see the strong move up simply as a buy vacuum test of the trading range high within a trading range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The problem with the bear\u2019s case is that the move up since June is in a tight bull channel. That means strong bulls.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They will need to create strong bear bars with follow-through selling to increase the odds of the bear leg beginning.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Since this week was a bull bar closing near its high, it is a buy signal bar for next week.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Odds slightly favor the market to trade at least a little higher.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders will see if the bulls can create more follow-through buying or will the market trade slightly higher, but close with a long tail above or with a bear body.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If the bulls continue to create consecutive bull bars, the odds will swing in favor of a successful breakout.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The move up since June has also lasted a long time and is slightly climactic. A minor pullback can begin at any moment.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The market was previously in a multi-month trading range. When a market is in a trading range, 80% of breakouts up and down will fail.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bear trend lines becoming progressively less steep also indicates a loss of momentum for the bears.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The market may be slowly becoming Always In Long.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The <em>Daily<\/em> crude oil chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Crude-Oil-Daily-Micro-Double-Top-Slightly-Climactic.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Crude-Oil-Daily-Micro-Double-Top-Slightly-Climactic-680x383.jpg\" alt=\"Crude Oil Daily: Micro Double Top, Slightly Climactic\" class=\"wp-image-189031\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Crude-Oil-Daily-Micro-Double-Top-Slightly-Climactic-680x383.jpg 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Crude-Oil-Daily-Micro-Double-Top-Slightly-Climactic-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Crude-Oil-Daily-Micro-Double-Top-Slightly-Climactic-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Crude-Oil-Daily-Micro-Double-Top-Slightly-Climactic-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Crude-Oil-Daily-Micro-Double-Top-Slightly-Climactic.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The market traded sideways to up for the week. Wednesday through Friday\u2019s candlesticks overlap within Tuesday\u2019s range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Previously, we said that odds slightly favor at least a small retest of the prior leg extreme (Aug 10).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bulls got a breakout above the 41-week trading range high with some follow-through buying this week.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The second leg up is strong in the form of a bull spike. That means strong bulls.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They want a strong breakout followed by a measured move based on the height of the 41-week trading range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bulls will need to continue creating follow-through buying to increase the odds of a successful breakout above the trading range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If the market trades lower, they want the 20-day exponential moving average to act as support.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bears hope that the tight channel up is simply a buy vacuum testing the trading range high.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They want a failed breakout above the 41-week trading range and a reversal down from a micro double top (Sept 5 and Sept 8).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They hope to get a reasonable sell signal bar and a low 2 short entry.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Since Friday was a bull bar closing near its high, it is a buy signal bar for Monday.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If the bulls continue to create follow-through buying trading far above the trading range, odds will swing in favor of a successful breakout.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>However, buying aggressively around the trading range high before a confirmed breakout may not be an ideal strategy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>While the market continues to slightly favor sideways to up, the recent move up is slightly climactic. A minor pullback can begin at any moment.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If a pullback begins, a reasonable target for the bears would be the 20-day exponential moving average.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>80% of breakouts up and down from a trading range will fail. Traders will BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) in trading ranges until there is a strong breakout from either direction with follow-through buying\/selling.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market analysis reports archive<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>You can access all weekend reports on the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rank-math-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">Market Analysis<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\" \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Market Overview: Crude Oil Futures The market formed a Crude Oil tight bull channel with some follow-through following last week&#8217;s breakout above the 41-week trading range. The bulls want a strong breakout above the trading range and a measured move based on the height of the 41-week trading range. The bears want a reversal down [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2836,"featured_media":189028,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"shadow","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1892,136],"tags":[325,1862],"class_list":{"0":"post-188871","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-crude-oil","8":"category-analysis","9":"tag-crude-oil-futures","10":"tag-tight-bull-channel","11":"entry","12":"override","13":"shadow"},"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Crude-Oil-Weekly-Market-Always-in-Long-or-Bull-Leg-in-TR.jpg","author_info":{"display_name":"Andrew","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/author\/andrewa\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/188871","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2836"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=188871"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/188871\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/189028"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=188871"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=188871"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=188871"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}