{"id":227187,"date":"2025-01-12T01:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-01-12T09:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=227187"},"modified":"2025-01-11T13:22:24","modified_gmt":"2025-01-11T21:22:24","slug":"weekly-eurusd-breakout-below-the-trading-range","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/analysis\/weekly-eurusd-breakout-below-the-trading-range\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly EURUSD Breakout Below the Trading Range"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Overview: EURUSD Forex<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The market formed a weekly EURUSD breakout below the trading range. The bears want a measured move based on the height of the trading range. The bulls want a reversal from a large double bottom bull flag (Oct 3 and Jan 2), a wedge pattern (Oct 23, Nov 22, and Jan 10) and a lower low major trend reversal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex market <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The <em>Weekly<\/em> EURUSD chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/EURUSD-Weekly-Bears-Need-FT-Selling-for-Measured-Move.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/EURUSD-Weekly-Bears-Need-FT-Selling-for-Measured-Move-680x383.jpg\" alt=\"EURUSD Weekly - Bears Need FT Selling for Measured Move, Weekly EURUSD Breakout Below the Trading Range\" class=\"wp-image-227347\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/EURUSD-Weekly-Bears-Need-FT-Selling-for-Measured-Move-680x383.jpg 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/EURUSD-Weekly-Bears-Need-FT-Selling-for-Measured-Move-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/EURUSD-Weekly-Bears-Need-FT-Selling-for-Measured-Move-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/EURUSD-Weekly-Bears-Need-FT-Selling-for-Measured-Move-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/EURUSD-Weekly-Bears-Need-FT-Selling-for-Measured-Move.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>This\u00a0week\u2019s\u00a0candlestick on the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investing.com\/currencies\/eur-usd\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">weekly EURUSD Forex chart<\/a> was a bear bar closing in its lower half with a long tail above.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/analysis\/eurusd-breakout-below-trading-range\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Last week<\/a>, we said that traders would see if the bears could create a follow-through bear bar following last week\u2019s breakout below the November 22 low or if the market would stall and form a minor pullback (bounce) in the next few weeks instead.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bears got follow-through selling this week albeit not as strong as they hoped for (overlapping last week\u2019s range).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They got another leg down creating the wedge pattern (Oct 23, Nov 22, and Jan 10).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They want a strong breakout below the trading range low and a measured move based on the height of the trading range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They must create sustained follow-through selling to increase the odds of lower prices.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If the market trades higher, they want a double top bear flag with the December 6 high.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bulls see the move to the November 22 low as a sell vacuum and a bear leg within a trading range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They see the move to the January 10 low as a retest of the prior leg&#8217;s extreme low (Nov 22).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They want a failed breakout followed by a retest of the middle of the trading range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They want a reversal from a large double bottom bull flag (Oct 3 and Jan 2), a wedge pattern (Oct 23, Nov 22, and Jan 10) and a lower low major trend reversal.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They must create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to indicate that they are back in control.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Since this week\u2019s candlestick is a bear bar closing in its lower half, it can be a sell signal bar for next week.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The move down since September is in a tight bear channel.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The selling pressure is stronger (consecutive bear bars, big bear bars closing in its lower half) than the weaker buying pressure (bull bars with limited or no follow-through buying).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The market may still trade at least a little lower.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders will see if the bears can continue to create follow-through selling. If they can do that, the odds of a measured move down will increase.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Or will the market stall and form a minor pullback (bounce) in the next few weeks instead?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Most breakouts from trading ranges fail and odds favor the trading range to continue.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>However, the longer the market trades below the trading range low with sustained follow-through selling, the more the odds will swing in favor of a successful breakout and a measured move down.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The <em>Daily<\/em> EURUSD chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/EURUSD-Daily-Tight-Bear-Channel-Bears-Need-FT-Selling.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/EURUSD-Daily-Tight-Bear-Channel-Bears-Need-FT-Selling-680x383.jpg\" alt=\"EURUSD Daily - Tight Bear Channel, Bears Need FT Selling\" class=\"wp-image-227350\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/EURUSD-Daily-Tight-Bear-Channel-Bears-Need-FT-Selling-680x383.jpg 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/EURUSD-Daily-Tight-Bear-Channel-Bears-Need-FT-Selling-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/EURUSD-Daily-Tight-Bear-Channel-Bears-Need-FT-Selling-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/EURUSD-Daily-Tight-Bear-Channel-Bears-Need-FT-Selling-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/EURUSD-Daily-Tight-Bear-Channel-Bears-Need-FT-Selling.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The EURUSD traded higher early in the week but stalled at the 20-day EMA. The market then traded sideways to down for the remainder of the week.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/analysis\/weekly-eurusd-inside-doji\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Previously<\/a>, we said that traders would see if the bulls could create follow-through buying trading far above the 20-day EMA or if the bears would be able to create a retest and breakout below the November 22 low with follow-through selling instead.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>So far, the market has traded below the November 22 low, but the follow-through selling is still limited.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bears got a third leg sideways to down trading below the trading range low (the first two legs being Oct 23 and Nov 22).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They want a strong breakout below the trading range followed by a measured move based on the height of the trading range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If the market trades higher, they want a double top bear flag with the December 6 or January 6 highs.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They want the 20-day EMA or the bear trend line to act as resistance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bulls see the whole move since September as a sell vacuum and a bear leg testing the trading range low and the current move as a retest of the November 22 low.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They want a failed breakout and a reversal from a wedge pattern (Oct 23, Nov 22, and Jan 10), a lower low major trend reversal and a small double bottom (Jan 2 and Jan 10).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The problem with the bulls\u2019s case is that they have not yet been able to create sustained follow-through buying trading far above the 20-day EMA and the bear trend line.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They must create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs trading far above the 20-day EMA and the bear trend line to indicate they are back in control.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>So far, the market is trading lower in a tight bear channel which means persistent selling.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Odds slightly favor the market to still be in the sideways to down phase.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders will see if the bears can continue to create more follow-through selling.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Or will the bulls be able to create a pullback into the trading range instead?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Most breakouts from trading ranges fail and odds favor the trading range to continue.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>However, the longer the market trades below the trading range with follow-through selling, the more the odds will swing in favor of a successful breakout and a measured move down.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market analysis reports archive<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>You can access all weekend reports on the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rank-math-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">Market Analysis<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\" \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Market Overview: EURUSD Forex The market formed a weekly EURUSD breakout below the trading range. The bears want a measured move based on the height of the trading range. The bulls want a reversal from a large double bottom bull flag (Oct 3 and Jan 2), a wedge pattern (Oct 23, Nov 22, and Jan [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2836,"featured_media":227347,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"shadow","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1842,136],"tags":[281],"class_list":{"0":"post-227187","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forex","8":"category-analysis","9":"tag-eurusd-forex","10":"entry","11":"override","12":"shadow"},"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/EURUSD-Weekly-Bears-Need-FT-Selling-for-Measured-Move.jpg","author_info":{"display_name":"Andrew","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/author\/andrewa\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/227187","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2836"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=227187"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/227187\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/227347"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=227187"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=227187"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=227187"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}