{"id":262617,"date":"2026-02-15T01:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-15T09:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=262617"},"modified":"2026-02-15T00:12:59","modified_gmt":"2026-02-15T08:12:59","slug":"e-mini-bears-want-a-breakout-below","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/analysis\/e-mini-bears-want-a-breakout-below\/","title":{"rendered":"E-mini Bears Want a Breakout Below"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Overview: S&amp;P 500 E-mini Futures<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>S&amp;P 500 E-mini<\/strong> bears want a breakout below the February 5 low and the 20-week EMA, followed by sustained follow-through selling. Bulls want the 20-week EMA to hold as support. If the market trades lower, they want the November 21 low to act as support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">S&amp;P500 E-mini futures<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The <em>Weekly<\/em> S&amp;P 500 E-mini chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/E-mini-Weekly-Tight-Trading-Range-BO-Mode.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/E-mini-Weekly-Tight-Trading-Range-BO-Mode-680x383.jpg\" alt=\"E-mini Weekly - Tight Trading Range, BO Mode, E-mini Bears Want a Breakout Below\" class=\"wp-image-262971\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/E-mini-Weekly-Tight-Trading-Range-BO-Mode-680x383.jpg 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/E-mini-Weekly-Tight-Trading-Range-BO-Mode-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/E-mini-Weekly-Tight-Trading-Range-BO-Mode-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/E-mini-Weekly-Tight-Trading-Range-BO-Mode-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/E-mini-Weekly-Tight-Trading-Range-BO-Mode.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>This week\u2019s E-mini candlestick was an inside bear bar closing in its lower half, testing the 20-week EMA.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"\/?p=261912\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Last week<\/a>, we said the market could continue trading sideways in the near term.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>So far, the market remains within an 11-week tight trading range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bears see a wedge top (December 11, December 26, and January 12), a double top (October 29 and January 28), and a smaller double top (January 12 and January 28).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bears want the October 29 high area to act as resistance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They want a strong breakout below the February 5 low and the 20-week EMA, followed by sustained follow-through selling and a measured move toward 6,500, based on the height of the 11-week trading range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bears need consecutive strong bear bars closing far below the 20-week EMA to flip the market to Always In Short.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If the market trades higher, they want weak follow-through buying to increase the odds of a failed breakout.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bulls see a large double bottom bull flag (December 17 and February 5).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bulls also see a High 4 buy setup.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They need a strong breakout with sustained follow-through above the January 28 high to increase the odds of trend resumption, with a measured move target near 7,300 based on the height of the 11-week trading range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bulls want the 20-week EMA to hold as support. If the market trades lower, they want the November 21 low to act as support.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The market has been in a tight range for 11 weeks, indicating balance between bulls and bears as the bears\u2019 strength has caught up with the prior bull trend.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bulls failed to trade above the high of prior bars in the last two weeks and have seen trending lower closes within the range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders may continue to Buy Low, Sell High (BLSH) within the range until there is a decisive breakout with sustained follow-through.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders will watch whether bears can drive a strong breakout below the 11-week trading range with follow-through selling, or whether bulls can retest and break out to a new all-time high. If the market makes a new all-time high but lacks sustained follow-through buying, the odds of a failed breakout increase.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Or will the market simply continue trading sideways around the October high area?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders will likely wait for a strong breakout with sustained follow-through, either above the all-time high or below the 20-week EMA, before trading aggressively.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The longer the market stalls around the October 29 high area without a strong breakout above, the higher the odds of a deeper pullback.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The <em>Daily<\/em> S&amp;P 500 E-mini chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/E-mini-Daily-TR-Expanding-Triangle-More-Bear-Bars.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/E-mini-Daily-TR-Expanding-Triangle-More-Bear-Bars-680x383.jpg\" alt=\"E-mini Daily - TR, Expanding Triangle, More Bear Bars\" class=\"wp-image-262972\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/E-mini-Daily-TR-Expanding-Triangle-More-Bear-Bars-680x383.jpg 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/E-mini-Daily-TR-Expanding-Triangle-More-Bear-Bars-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/E-mini-Daily-TR-Expanding-Triangle-More-Bear-Bars-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/E-mini-Daily-TR-Expanding-Triangle-More-Bear-Bars-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/E-mini-Daily-TR-Expanding-Triangle-More-Bear-Bars.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The market traded slightly higher early in the week. Tuesday and Wednesday gapped up but both reversed to close as bear bars. Thursday formed a large bear bar testing the 100-day EMA, followed by a doji on Friday.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"\/?p=261912\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Last week<\/a>, we said traders were watching whether the market would stall around the 20-day EMA and form a second leg sideways to down, or whether bulls could generate follow-through buying to new all-time highs.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>So far, the market is stalling near the all-time high area and the 20-day EMA.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bulls see a large double bottom bull flag (December 17 and February 5), a wedge bull flag (January 2, January 20, and February 5), and a small double bottom (February 5 and February 13).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bulls want a strong breakout above the January 28 high with sustained follow-through buying and a measured move target near 7,300, based on the height of the 11-week trading range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If the market trades lower, bulls want the November 21 low or the 200-day EMA to act as support.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bulls need consecutive strong bull bars to increase the odds of a successful breakout and trend resumption.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bears want the 20-day EMA to act as resistance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They want a strong breakout below the 11-week trading range, followed by a measured move toward 6,500, based on the height of that range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bears need consecutive strong bear bars breaking below the December 17 low and the 100-day EMA to flip the market to Always In Short.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If the market trades higher and makes a new all-time high, bears want weak follow-through buying to increase the odds of a failed breakout.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The market remains in a trading range that began in late November. Bulls want a breakout above it; bears want a breakout below.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Since late December, the candlesticks have formed an expanding triangle. This can act as either a reversal or continuation pattern, often trapping traders with failed breakouts before reversing.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Over the past two weeks, there have been more prominent bear bars than bull bars, indicating increasing selling pressure which are cumulative.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders are watching whether the market continues to stall around the 20-day EMA and the all-time high area. If it continues making slightly lower highs with more prominent bear bars, the odds of a downside breakout from the trading range increase.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Alternatively, if bulls can create a breakout to new all-time highs, traders will watch for strong follow-through \u2014 without it, the odds of a failed breakout increase.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Until there is a strong breakout with sustained follow-through in either direction, traders may continue to Buy Low, Sell High (BLSH), buying near the lower third and selling near the upper third of the range.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trading room<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Trading Course <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rank-math-link\" href=\"\/?page_id=1036\" target=\"_blank\">trading room<\/a>. We offer a <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market analysis reports archive<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>You can access all weekend reports on the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rank-math-link\" href=\"\/?cat_ID=136\" target=\"_blank\">Market Analysis<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\" \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Market Overview: S&amp;P 500 E-mini Futures The S&amp;P 500 E-mini bears want a breakout below the February 5 low and the 20-week EMA, followed by sustained follow-through selling. Bulls want the 20-week EMA to hold as support. If the market trades lower, they want the November 21 low to act as support. S&amp;P500 E-mini futures [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2836,"featured_media":262971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"shadow","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[136,1843],"tags":[60],"class_list":{"0":"post-262617","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-analysis","8":"category-sp500-emini","9":"tag-sp-emini","10":"entry","11":"override","12":"shadow"},"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/E-mini-Weekly-Tight-Trading-Range-BO-Mode.jpg","author_info":{"display_name":"Andrew","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/author\/andrewa\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/262617","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2836"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=262617"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/262617\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/262971"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=262617"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=262617"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=262617"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}