{"id":272725,"date":"2026-07-05T01:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-05T08:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=272725"},"modified":"2026-07-05T01:46:48","modified_gmt":"2026-07-05T08:46:48","slug":"monthly-crude-oil-breakout","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/analysis\/monthly-crude-oil-breakout\/","title":{"rendered":"Monthly Crude Oil Breakout"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Overview: Crude Oil Futures<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The market formed a monthly <strong>Crude oil<\/strong> breakout below the ii (inside-inside) and triangle patterns in June. Bears want a retest of the 20-month EMA and the breakout point (February 27). Bulls want the 20-month EMA or the March 2 low to act as support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Crude oil futures<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The <em>Monthly<\/em> crude oil chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Crude-Oil-Monthly-Breakout-Below-ii-Triangle-Patterns.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Crude-Oil-Monthly-Breakout-Below-ii-Triangle-Patterns-680x383.jpg\" alt=\"Crude Oil Monthly - Breakout Below ii &amp; Triangle Patterns, Monthly Crude Oil Breakout\" class=\"wp-image-272840\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Crude-Oil-Monthly-Breakout-Below-ii-Triangle-Patterns-680x383.jpg 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Crude-Oil-Monthly-Breakout-Below-ii-Triangle-Patterns-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Crude-Oil-Monthly-Breakout-Below-ii-Triangle-Patterns-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Crude-Oil-Monthly-Breakout-Below-ii-Triangle-Patterns-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Crude-Oil-Monthly-Breakout-Below-ii-Triangle-Patterns.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>June formed a big bear bar closing near its low.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/analysis\/monthly-crude-oil-ii-pattern\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Last month<\/a>, we said traders would watch whether bears could generate a strong bear entry bar in June, or whether the market would trade lower but stall around the April 17 low area and reverse up, closing with a long lower tail instead.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bears got a strong breakout below the ii (inside-inside) and triangle patterns in June.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bears want a retest of the 20-month EMA and the breakout point (February 27).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They need to create strong follow-through selling, breaking decisively below the 20-month EMA, to increase the odds of a reversal.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bulls see the current move as a sell vacuum test of the 20-month EMA and the low of the 4-month trading range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bulls want the 20-month EMA or the March 2 low to act as support and hope there are buyers around the low of the 4-month trading range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bulls need consecutive strong bull bars to demonstrate control.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The market broke out below the ii (inside-inside) and triangle patterns in June.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>While the move down is strong, it could be a bear leg within a trading range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The market could still trade slightly lower to test near the 20-month EMA.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A strong bull leg (March) followed by a strong bear leg indicates trading range price action.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>For now, traders will watch whether bears can generate strong follow-through selling, breaking decisively below the 20-month EMA.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Or whether the market trades lower but stalls around the 20-month EMA, closing with a long lower tail instead.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The <em>Weekly<\/em> crude oil chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Crude-Oil-Weekly-Bear-Leg-Bears-Want-2nd-Leg-Down.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Crude-Oil-Weekly-Bear-Leg-Bears-Want-2nd-Leg-Down-680x383.jpg\" alt=\"Crude Oil Weekly - Bear Leg, Bears Want 2nd Leg Down\" class=\"wp-image-272841\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Crude-Oil-Weekly-Bear-Leg-Bears-Want-2nd-Leg-Down-680x383.jpg 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Crude-Oil-Weekly-Bear-Leg-Bears-Want-2nd-Leg-Down-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Crude-Oil-Weekly-Bear-Leg-Bears-Want-2nd-Leg-Down-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Crude-Oil-Weekly-Bear-Leg-Bears-Want-2nd-Leg-Down-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Crude-Oil-Weekly-Bear-Leg-Bears-Want-2nd-Leg-Down.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>This week formed a small bear doji closing around the middle of its range with a small tail below, testing the March 10 low.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/analysis\/crude-oil-strong-bear-leg\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Last week<\/a>, we said traders would watch whether bears could generate additional follow-through bear bars breaking below the March 10 low to test the June 23 breakout point, or whether the market would stall around the March 10 low area, followed by a pullback to test the 20-week EMA in the weeks ahead.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bulls see the current move as a sell vacuum bear leg testing the low of the 17-week trading range (March 10).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bulls want the low of the trading range to act as support.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If the market trades lower, bulls want the March 2 low area to provide support.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bulls need consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to demonstrate control.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bears generated a strong bear leg testing the low of the 17-week trading range (March 10).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The move down is in a tight bear channel, indicating persistent selling.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next targets for the bears are the March 2 low and the February 27 breakout point of the rally.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If the market trades higher, bears want the pullback to be weak, with overlapping candlesticks and prominent upper tails.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bears want the pullback to form a lower high, followed by a larger second leg sideways to down.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bears want the 20-week EMA to act as resistance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bears need additional follow-through selling to increase the odds of a sustained move lower.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The move down from the May 18 high is in a tight bear channel, indicating strong bears.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>There may be sellers above the first pullback from the tight bear channel.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The market is likely Always In Short.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders will watch whether bears can generate additional follow-through bear bars breaking decisively below the March 10 low.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Or will the market stall around the March 10 or March 2 low area, followed by a pullback to test the 20-week EMA in the weeks ahead?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market analysis reports archive<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>You can access all weekend reports on the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rank-math-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">Market Analysis<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\" \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Market Overview: Crude Oil Futures The market formed a monthly Crude oil breakout below the ii (inside-inside) and triangle patterns in June. Bears want a retest of the 20-month EMA and the breakout point (February 27). Bulls want the 20-month EMA or the March 2 low to act as support. Crude oil futures The Monthly [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2836,"featured_media":272841,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"shadow","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1892,136],"tags":[325],"class_list":{"0":"post-272725","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-crude-oil","8":"category-analysis","9":"tag-crude-oil-futures","10":"entry","11":"override","12":"shadow"},"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Crude-Oil-Weekly-Bear-Leg-Bears-Want-2nd-Leg-Down.jpg","author_info":{"display_name":"Andrew","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/author\/andrewa\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/272725","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2836"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=272725"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/272725\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":272856,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/272725\/revisions\/272856"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/272841"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=272725"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=272725"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=272725"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}