{"id":57047,"date":"2016-08-21T01:00:16","date_gmt":"2016-08-21T08:00:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=57047"},"modified":"2018-03-25T06:41:49","modified_gmt":"2018-03-25T13:41:49","slug":"high-probability-trades","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/ask-al\/high-probability-trades\/","title":{"rendered":"Ask Al: High probability trades"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>High probability trades discussion<br \/>\n BPA trading room Q&amp;A: February 11, 2016<\/h2>\n<p class=\"content-box-green\">Question 1 of 3: What is the highest probability trade today?<br \/>\n <em>Video duration: 6min 04sec<\/em><\/p>\n<div style='position:relative;height:0;padding-bottom:56.25%'><iframe class='sproutvideo-player' src='\/\/videos.sproutvideo.com\/embed\/189adfbb1318e6c190\/973d4cacdad99b20?playerTheme=dark&amp;playerColor=' style='position:absolute;width:100%;height:100%;left:0;top:0' frameborder='0' allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">You can also view this video on <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/HF8nY43xv2A\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Al&#8217;s YouTube Channel<\/a> if needed.<\/p>\n<h3>High probability \u2013 not the whole story<\/h3>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/ask-al-73-high-probability-trades-discussion.jpg\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/ask-al-73-high-probability-trades-discussion-300x155.jpg\" alt=\"Ask Al Brooks: High probability trades discussion\" width=\"300\" height=\"155\" class=\"alignleft size-medium wp-image-57053\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/ask-al-73-high-probability-trades-discussion-300x155.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/ask-al-73-high-probability-trades-discussion-768x397.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/ask-al-73-high-probability-trades-discussion-600x310.jpg 600w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/ask-al-73-high-probability-trades-discussion.jpg 1282w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a>Now, that is a very interesting question, okay, because it addresses one variable &#8212; probability &#8212; and it <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/how-to-trade-manual\/traders-equation\/\" target=\"_blank\">ignores two others<\/a> &#8212; risk and reward.\u00a0 To me, the highest probability trade was the one that I said.\u00a0 When bar 62 was happening, I said, \u201cTraders are buying,\u201d you know, \u201cI\u2019m buying, it\u2019s going up,\u201d right? So 62 is the highest probability trade, but that does not mean it\u2019s the easiest trade.\u00a0 It just means the probability that we\u2019re going to get some kind of a measured move out of 62 is very high, probably 70 percent.\u00a0 But the risk is big depending on where you bought.\u00a0 If you bought the close, you\u2019re risking, whatever, 12 points or so.\u00a0 The reward is at least as big, but with the probability 60 or 70 percent, it\u2019s a great trade.\u00a0 So that is the highest probability trade.<\/p>\n<h3>Brain dead trader?<\/h3>\n<p>Also, I think when you\u2019re starting out it\u2019s a difficult trade to take.\u00a0 When the market\u2019s going down, down, down, and you\u2019re thinking, \u201cOh my gosh, it\u2019s going to fall below the January low,\u201d and instead it reverses up suddenly like that, it\u2019s just really hard starting out &#8212; just become brain dead and mechanical, but that\u2019s what I do.\u00a0 It\u2019s going up 62, I don\u2019t think, \u201cThis can\u2019t be happening. This is happening too fast; the risk is too big; I better wait for a pullback.\u201d\u00a0 No.\u00a0 I say, \u201cBuy the market.\u00a0 Just hit the button.\u00a0 Buy the market.\u201d The market is clearly going up and it\u2019s going up very fast.\u00a0 It\u2019s a big surprise to everyone, bulls and bears, it\u2019s going higher, right?\u00a0 Everyone is going to have to adjust to this reversal.\u00a0 It\u2019s going to go higher, and the slower you are to hit that button, the less profit you\u2019ll have and the greater your risk will be.<\/p>\n<h3>Be prepared for reversal<\/h3>\n<p>But in those first two minutes, 62, it was clearly a change in the market.\u00a0 There was clearly a change in the market.\u00a0 And, you know, I said earlier these gap bars could lead to major trend reversals so you had to be prepared for some kind of a reversal around the low of the day, and we\u2019re at such critical support on the daily chart. And we\u2019re also at the bottom of a channel in the 60-minute chart. So there were a lot of things going on that had the potential to lead to a reversal.<\/p>\n<p class=\"content-box-green\">Question 2 of 3:\u00a0 Do you think it is more difficult to enter as a bar is forming than it is to buy or sell closes? I have a habit for picking the worst possible tick to enter when I buy and sell the market.<\/p>\n<h3>Enter on the close, or before?<\/h3>\n<p>In general, it\u2019s easier to enter on the close because a lot of times you anticipate it.\u00a0 Three or four minutes into the bar you\u2019ll say, \u201cYeah, this looks like a good close.\u00a0 I\u2019m going to buy it when it closes,\u201d so you can be ready for it. And buying as the bar is forming, a lot of times &#8212; like 62 &#8212; it\u2019s a surprise, and it\u2019s hard to do.\u00a0 50, 12 &#8212; those were clearly Sell The Close. And 50 especially happened very, very quickly so, when in doubt &#8212; when I\u2019m in doubt &#8212; I just enter at the market.\u00a0 On most software, you have some kind of a button that says, you know, Sell the market or Buy the market, and I use that a lot in bars like 50 and like bars 62 and 64. When it\u2019s clearly moving very quickly and you know it\u2019s going to go higher or lower, depending on if it\u2019s a bull or a bear, I just hit \u201cbuy the market\u201d or \u201csell the market.\u201d<\/p>\n<h3>Waiting for confirmation<\/h3>\n<p>[Ref picking worst possible tick habit] What you\u2019re doing is you\u2019re waiting until you\u2019re convinced that the market is going up. So you end up buying the high and at that point experienced traders are taking partial profits, and you get a pullback.\u00a0 I don\u2019t have a problem with that.\u00a0 Buying the 62 close, who cares, right?\u00a0 So you\u2019re buying whatever, 12 points off the low.\u00a0 That\u2019s fine.\u00a0 You know it\u2019s going higher; you know it\u2019s going up for at least a measured move, so as long as you can trade small enough, you have a 60 or 70 percent chance of making a reward equal to your risk.\u00a0 That is a good trade.<\/p>\n<h3>Does your trade make sense?<\/h3>\n<p>So, I wouldn\u2019t worry about buying or selling the market; all I would worry about is whether or not whatever you choose to do makes sense, right?\u00a0 So buying the 63 close, 62 close, it made sense.\u00a0 So if you used the right stop and taken an adequate profit, it made sense so it does not matter that you\u2019re entering a little bit later than other traders.\u00a0 What you\u2019re doing makes sense.<\/p>\n<p class=\"content-box-green\">Question 3 of 3: Al, can you talk about how you traded the bull spike 62 to 65?\u00a0 How many trades? When flat? Market orders, limit orders, one or two point scalps?<\/p>\n<h3>Traders are buying \u2013 so buy!<\/h3>\n<p>I think the first trade, I bought 62 as it was quickly turning up.\u00a0 I don\u2019t remember what I said, but I said something to the effect that this is going up; traders are buying.\u00a0 I may even has said I\u2019m buying.\u00a0 So the first trade, to be honest, I don\u2019t know how much I made.\u00a0 I know I made at least four or five points on one trade and then I think I switched to two-point scalps. And, I don\u2019t remember, I may have bought. This first one, I just hit \u201cbuy the market\u201d and then when it got up pretty high I just took a profit. And then I bought the 63 close.\u00a0 I think I went for four points on the 63 close.\u00a0 I don\u2019t remember.\u00a0 And I don\u2019t remember if I took a third trade up there or not.\u00a0 And what did I do?\u00a0 In here, I think I bought the 69 low and that was it.\u00a0 I think I took two points and that was it.<\/p>\n<h3>No edge, no trade<\/h3>\n<p>I debated about buying as 74 was going up, but I was tired and if I\u2019m not at my best whatever little edge I have over <a href=\"http:\/\/www.goldmansachs.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Goldman Sachs<\/a> is non-existent. So if I\u2019m not at my best, I just sit and I wait.\u00a0 You know, I\u2019m a body, right? I\u2019m not a machine and, every good trader can only have a small edge because he\u2019s competing against really smart, experienced people. So if you\u2019re not at your best, whatever edge you have when you are at your best, is not there.\u00a0 So if you do not have an advantage, it does not make sense taking a trade.<\/p>\n<h3>Tomorrow\u2019s market review<\/h3>\n<p>Okay, so tomorrow will be interesting.\u00a0 To me, this short covering so far is not enough to make me think we\u2019re going a lot higher.\u00a0 We might, but the bulls really need follow through otherwise we\u2019re going to fall below that January low within the next few days.<\/p>\n<p>Okay, hope everybody has a good night.<\/p>\n<p><em>Al Brooks<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a title=\"Al Brooks&#039; trading room\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\">Information on Al&#8217;s Online day trading room<\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>High probability trades discussion BPA trading room Q&amp;A: February 11, 2016 Question 1 of 3: What is the highest probability trade today? Video duration: 6min 04sec You can also view this video on Al&#8217;s YouTube Channel if needed. High probability \u2013 not the whole story Now, that is a very interesting question, okay, because it [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[159],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-57047","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-ask-al","7":"entry","8":"has-post-thumbnail","9":"override"},"featured_image_src":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"BTC Admin","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/author\/richardhk\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57047","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57047"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57047\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57047"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57047"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57047"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}