{"id":74873,"date":"2018-01-25T06:20:33","date_gmt":"2018-01-25T14:20:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=74873"},"modified":"2018-05-15T23:37:21","modified_gmt":"2018-05-16T06:37:21","slug":"emini-outside-down-day-might-lead-trading-range","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/analysis\/market-update\/emini-outside-down-day-might-lead-trading-range\/","title":{"rendered":"Emini outside down day might lead to trading range <br \/>Intraday market update: January 25, 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Emini outside down day might lead to trading range<\/h2>\n<p class=\"caption\">Updated 6:42 a.m.<\/p>\n<p>Today opened within yesterday&#8217;s range. Since opened near the high, there is an increased chance of a breakout above yesterday&#8217;s high. Yet, the day after a big outside down day closing in the middle usually will not get far above or below yesterday&#8217;s range. The Big Down, Big Up yesterday makes a lot of trading range trading likely today.<\/p>\n<p>The 1st bar was a doji and therefore a trading range bar. It further increases the odds of a trading range. Since the day is near yesterday&#8217;s high, the Emini is deciding whether to break above that high. However, since a trading range day is likely and a breakout far above yesterday&#8217;s high is not, the odds are that the Emini will form an early high of the day. Furthermore, it will probably be mostly a trading range day.<\/p>\n<p>At the moment, the Emini is Always in short and back in the tight trading range of the past 2 days around 2040. The bulls want an opening reversal up. However, the big bear bar make a trading range more likely than a bull trend. <\/p>\n<p>The bears want a series of bear bars. But, the Emini is at support at yesterday&#8217;s close, the moving average, and the 2840 trading range. The odds favor a trading range day.<\/p>\n<h2>Pre-Open market analysis<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nYesterday was an outside down day, but it closed in the middle and therefore was mostly neutral. However, the buy climax on the daily chart is extreme. Yesterday is a sign that a trading range might begin soon. <\/p>\n<p>There are 2 days left to the week, and the week&#8217;s range is not big. This means that the week could still close near its open. That would put a tail on top of the bar on the weekly chart. Since last week had a tail below, there is an increased chance of another doji bar this week.<\/p>\n<h3>Overnight Emini Globex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EMINI GLOBEX TRADING --><br \/>\nThe Emini is up 8 points in the Globex session. There is a measured move target at 2860 based on a breakout above a wedge top on the 60 minute chart. This is therefore resistance and a magnet above.<\/p>\n<p>Today has an increased chance of being an inside day. If it breaks above yesterday&#8217;s high, it would probably stall. This is because a big reversal usually results in a trading range and not a strong bull trend. In addition, the breakout above yesterday&#8217;s high would create a 3 day expanding triangle top   because yesterday was an outside day. <\/p>\n<p>Yesterday&#8217;s reversal up was strong enough to reduce the odds of a big bear trend today. Since today will open near yesterday&#8217;s high, the best the bears can probably get today is a test of yesterday&#8217;s low. Even that is unlikely after yesterday&#8217;s strong reversal up.<\/p>\n<h2>Yesterday&#8217;s setups<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT YESTERDAY'S CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/ES-14.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/ES-14-600x336.png\" alt=\"Emini nested wedge bottom and outside down day\" width=\"600\" height=\"336\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-74957\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/ES-14-600x336.png 600w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/ES-14-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/ES-14-768x431.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I sometimes also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars.<\/p>\n<p><!--  EURUSD FOREX MARKET TRADING STRATEGIES  --><\/p>\n<h2>EURUSD daily Forex chart in strong bull breakout<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT FOREX CHART --><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/EC-15.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/EC-15-600x337.png\" alt=\"EURUSD daily Forex Low 4 sell signal and wedge top just belo w 1.2500 Big Round Number\" width=\"600\" height=\"337\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-74968\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/EC-15-600x337.png 600w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/EC-15-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/EC-15-768x431.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">The EURUSD daily Forex chart had a strong bull breakout yesterday and good follow-through buying so far today. It is at the top of a tight wedge bull channel and just below the 1.2500 Big Round Number. In addition, this is a possible consecutive complex top, where the November 27 high was the 1st attempt at a top.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET FOREX ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nThe EURUSD daily Forex chart is in a strong bull trend. Yet, the bull channel has had a series of buy climaxes and therefore might form a wedge top. Furthermore, this wedge is the 2nd complex top since the November 7 low. That increases the chances of a reversal. <\/p>\n<p>Because the bull channel is tight, the 1st reversal will probably be minor. That means that the best the bears can probably get over the next month is a trading range. The low of the range would probably be around the January 4 high and the 1.2000 Big Round Number.<\/p>\n<p>Since the current 6 day rally has not had any pullbacks, the odds are that the bears will need at least a micro double top before the trading range will begin. Furthermore, the 1.2500 Big Round Number is just above today&#8217;s high. Because it is important symbolic resistance, the odds are that it will rally will get closer to it before the the bears can get a swing down.<\/p>\n<h3>Overnight EURUSD Forex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EURUSD FOREX TRADING --><br \/>\nThe EURUSD 240 minute Forex chart has been in a tight bull channel with mostly bull trend bars for 3 day. This is a strong bull trend. Consequently, the best the bears can probably get over the next few days is a trading range.<\/p>\n<p>The 5 minute chart sold off 70 pips overnight, but has recovered all of that over the past 15 minutes. It might probably evolve into in a trading range today. If so, day traders will both buy and sell for scalps. When the 240 minute chart is in a tight bull channel, it is easier to make money buying.<br \/>\n<!--  SUMMARY OF TODAY'S EMINI PRICE ACTION  --><\/p>\n<h2>Summary of today&#8217;s S&amp;P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n<p><!-- EOD CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/ES-15.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/ES-15-600x337.png\" alt=\"Emini ioi inside day after outside day\" width=\"600\" height=\"337\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-74981\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/ES-15-600x337.png 600w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/ES-15-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/ES-15-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">The selloff on the open was deep enough to make a strong bull trend day unlikely. Even though the bulls got an Opening Reversal up from the 60 minute moving average, today was just another trading range day.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT EOD COMMENTS --><br \/>\nAfter yesterday&#8217;s big outside down day, today was unlikely to break far above yesterday&#8217;s high or below its low. In addition, today was probably going to mostly overlap yesterday and form a trading range day, which it did. Since it was a bear inside day, it formed an ioi sell signal for tomorrow. But, because the bull channel on the daily chart is tight, it is a minor signal.<\/p>\n<p>Since tomorrow is Friday, weekly support and resistance can be important, especially at the end of the day. The two most important magnets the week&#8217;s high and midpoint. The bulls want a strong bull bar on the weekly chart. The bears want a close below the middle of the week&#8217;s range as a sign of selling pressure.<br \/>\n<!--  FOOTER TEXT AND LINKS  --><\/p>\n<p>See the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly candlestick chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p class=\"caption\">Traders can see the end of the day <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/profile.php?mode=profil&amp;sub=profile_prefer&amp;mod=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&amp;P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\">trading room<\/a>. We offer a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Standard Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PST, and closes at 1:15 pm PST). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the <a title=\"Emini intraday market update\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\">Intraday Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Emini outside down day might lead to trading range Updated 6:42 a.m. Today opened within yesterday&#8217;s range. Since opened near the high, there is an increased chance of a breakout above yesterday&#8217;s high. Yet, the day after a big outside down day closing in the middle usually will not get far above or below yesterday&#8217;s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"shadow","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-74873","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-market-update","7":"entry","8":"has-post-thumbnail","9":"override"},"featured_image_src":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74873","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74873"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74873\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74873"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74873"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74873"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}