{"id":76455,"date":"2018-03-19T06:20:49","date_gmt":"2018-03-19T13:20:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=76455"},"modified":"2018-05-11T09:49:47","modified_gmt":"2018-05-11T16:49:47","slug":"emini-breakout-mode-awaiting-march-fomc-announcement","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/analysis\/market-update\/emini-breakout-mode-awaiting-march-fomc-announcement\/","title":{"rendered":"Emini in breakout mode awaiting March FOMC announcement <br \/>Intraday market update: March 19, 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Emini in breakout mode awaiting March FOMC announcement<\/h2>\n<p class=\"caption\">Updated 6:45 a.m.<\/p>\n<p>By gapping below Friday&#8217;s low, the Emini triggered a sell signal on the weekly chart. The bulls tried for a reversal on the 2nd bar, but it had a tail. While the Emini is Always In Short, the bulls will try for an early low of the day. Since the 2nd bar had a tail, the bulls might need a 2nd entry buy. An early low only means that the selling stops. It can lead to a trading range instead of a bull trend. <\/p>\n<p>The 2 big bear bars on the open make a strong bull trend day unlikely. The bears hope that this is the start of a big bear day. Traders are selling aggressively. Since the bars are big, they are climactic. This increases the chances of a parabolic wedge bottom in the 1st hour. Traders will look for an early reversal. The bad follow-through on the 2nd and 4th bars reduce the chance of a sustained bear trend day.<\/p>\n<h2>Pre-Open market analysis<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nLast week was a bear bar on the weekly chart. It is a sell signal bar for a Low 2 bear flag. This week will probably trade below last week&#8217;s low, which would trigger the sell signal. But, the weekly chart is in a tight trading range. This is a limit order market. The probability is that the tight range will continue. Therefore, this sell signal is more likely to fail than to be the start of a bear trend.<\/p>\n<p>Friday was the 5th consecutive bear day on the daily chart. That has not happened since August. Consequently, the odds favor a bull day today, which means a close above the open. Therefore, the Emini will probably trend up from the open, or be a trading range day where any selloff below the open will reverse up.<\/p>\n<p>The big event this week is the FOMC announcement at 11 a.m. on Wednesday. The Emini will probably be sideways until then. It might use the announcement as a catalyst for a strong breakout above the February 27 major lower high or for a strong reversal down to test the March 2 low.<\/p>\n<h3>Overnight Emini Globex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EMINI GLOBEX TRADING --><br \/>\nThe Emini is down 13 points in the Globex session. Because it will probably gap below last week&#8217;s low, it will trigger the sell signal on the weekly chart. Since this is a sell signal, there is a slightly increased chance of a big trend down this week. However, any big move up or down will probably only begin after Wednesday&#8217;s 11 a.m. FOMC announcement. Sine that is a major catalyst, it increases the odds of mostly sideways trading before the report.<\/p>\n<p>After 5 consecutive bear days on the daily chart in a 3 month trading range, the odds are against a 6th consecutive bear day. Therefore, today will probably close above its open. Consequently, even if today is in a bear trend for several hours, the odds will favor a reversal up. <\/p>\n<p>If there is a Small Pullback Bear Trend, which is unlikely, the day could remain a bear trend day. More likely, the bulls will get a reversal up after any 2 &#8211; 3 hour selloff on the open. If there is a rally on the open, any late selloff will probably not lead to a close below the open. Finally, if today is a trading range day, it will probably close above the open.<\/p>\n<p>After 11 a.m., if the Emini is 5 points or less above or below the open, it will probably get drawn to the open as a test. Yet, the odds still favor a close above the open.<\/p>\n<h2>Friday&#8217;s setups<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT FRIDAY'S CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/ES-12.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/ES-12-600x336.png\" alt=\"Emini wedges and 5th consecutive bear trend day\" width=\"600\" height=\"336\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-76565\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/ES-12-600x336.png 600w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/ES-12-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/ES-12-768x430.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/ES-12.png 1690w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I sometimes also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars.<\/p>\n<p><!--  EURUSD FOREX MARKET TRADING STRATEGIES  --><\/p>\n<h2>EURUSD High 2 bull flag<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT FOREX CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/EC-12.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/EC-12-600x338.png\" alt=\"EURUSD High 2 bull flag before FOMC\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-76587\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/EC-12-600x338.png 600w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/EC-12-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/EC-12-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/EC-12.png 1687w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">The EURUSD daily Forex chart has a High 2 bull flag in the middle of a 3 month trading range.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET FOREX ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nThe EURUSD daily Forex chart has been sideways for 3 months. Like all trading ranges, the bulls look like they are about to take control, but then there is a reversal down. Once the bears look strong, the chart reverses back up.<\/p>\n<p>The chart has pulled back over the past 2 weeks and has a bull bar so far today. If today closes above its midpoint, it will be a buy signal bar for tomorrow. <\/p>\n<p>The past 3 months formed a trading range on the daily. Once a pullback grows to 20 or more bars, the bulls have largely lost control. I then use the term \u00abtrading range\u00bb instead of \u00abpullback.\u00bb This is a neutral pattern. Since the trend leading to the range was up, there is only a slightly higher probability of a successful bull breakout. <\/p>\n<p>However, these same few months on the daily chart created a bull flag on the weekly chart. The weekly chart is therefore bullish. The odds favor a successful upside breakout within the next month or two. If the pullback grows to 20 or more weeks, it too will become neutral, like the pattern on the daily chart. I will then call it a trading range instead of a pullback (bull flag).<\/p>\n<p>If the bears get a successful bear breakout on the daily chart, they could get a Leg 1 = Leg 2 measured move down on to around 1.20. While bearish on the daily chart, it would still be a bull flag on the weekly chart. But, a weaker one.<\/p>\n<h3>Overnight EURUSD Forex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EURUSD FOREX TRADING --><br \/>\nThe EURUSD 5 minute Forex chart rallied 60 pips overnight up from below Friday&#8217;s low. In addition, there was a 15 minute bull breakout over the past hour. If the bulls can prevent this breakout from reversing, the day will close near its high. It would therefore be a good buy signal bar for a lower low double bottom with the March 9 low. The odds would favor a break above today&#8217;s high tomorrow. <\/p>\n<p>The big problem for all traders is that 11 a.m. Wednesday&#8217;s FOMC announcement if a major catalyst. It could lead to a big move up or down. Consequently, what takes place before the report is minor. <\/p>\n<p>Yes, the odds of a rally to above 1.25 will be higher if today closes on its high and tomorrow is a big bull day. Wednesday&#8217;s report could then lead to a huge rally to back above 1.25. <\/p>\n<p>However, it is almost equally likely that the report will lead to a big reversal down to below 1.20. Consequently, day traders will mostly scalp until the report.<br \/>\n<!--  SUMMARY OF TODAY'S EMINI PRICE ACTION  --><\/p>\n<h2>Summary of today&#8217;s S&amp;P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n<p><!-- EOD CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/ES-14.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/ES-14-600x337.png\" alt=\"Emini small pullback bear trend with late bull trap ahead of March FOMC.\" width=\"600\" height=\"337\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-76602\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/ES-14-600x337.png 600w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/ES-14-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/ES-14-768x431.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/ES-14.png 1688w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">The Emini gapped down and created a Small Pullback Bear Trend Day. A late rally retraced half of the early loss.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT EOD COMMENTS --><br \/>\nBy gapping down, today created a 6 day island top. In addition, it triggered a sell signal on the weekly chart. The bears want follow-through selling tomorrow. But, today was the 6th consecutive bear day. That has not happened in over a year. The odds are that today&#8217;s sell climax will lead to at least a small bull day tomorrow. That simply means a close above the open. Less likely, tomorrow could be a big bull day, erasing much of today&#8217;s selling.<br \/>\n<!--  FOOTER TEXT AND LINKS  --><\/p>\n<p>See the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly candlestick chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p class=\"caption\">Traders can see the end of the day <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/profile.php?mode=profil&amp;sub=profile_prefer&amp;mod=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&amp;P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\">trading room<\/a>. We offer a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Standard Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PST, and closes at 1:15 pm PST). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the <a title=\"Emini intraday market update\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\">Intraday Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Emini in breakout mode awaiting March FOMC announcement Updated 6:45 a.m. By gapping below Friday&#8217;s low, the Emini triggered a sell signal on the weekly chart. The bulls tried for a reversal on the 2nd bar, but it had a tail. While the Emini is Always In Short, the bulls will try for an early [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"shadow","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-76455","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-market-update","7":"entry","8":"has-post-thumbnail","9":"override"},"featured_image_src":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76455","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76455"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76455\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76455"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76455"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76455"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}