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![\"Emini](\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/ES-15.png\" "\\"\\"")
<\/a><\/p>\nHere are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I sometimes also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars.<\/p>\n
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EURUSD wedge bull flag in middle of trading range ahead of FOMC<\/h2>\n
Over the past 3 weeks, the EURUSD daily Forex chart has pulled back from a 6 day rally. The pullback has 3 pushes down and is therefore a wedge bull flag. However, it is in the middle of a 3 month trading range. That lowers the probability of a bull breakout.<\/p>\n No matter what happens this morning, the 11 a.m. PST FOMC announcement will overwhelm all early movement. A small wedge bull flag means that there is a higher probability of at least a few days up over the next week. Yet, the probability is much closer to 50% because of today’s FOMC meeting. That means that there is also almost a 50% chance of a bear breakout below the bull flag and then a swing down to the March 1 low instead of up to the March 8 high.<\/p>\n However, surprises happen. If there is a strong breakout up or down in the next couple of hours, traders will hold for a swing. But, day traders should exit all positions before the report. Furthermore, 50% of FOMC reports create breakouts that reverse. Hence, day traders should wait for at least 10 minutes after the 11 a.m. PST report before resuming trading. The Emini had a strong rally to above yesterday’s high before the FOMC report. It rallied more on the report, but reversed down from a micro double top just below Friday’s low. It then reversed back above yesterday’s high. Today is therefore both an outside down day and an outside up day.<\/p>\n See the weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly candlestick chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/p>\n Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room<\/a>. We offer a 2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n
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\nToday’s FOMC announcement that will probably lead to a big move up or down on the EURUSD daily Forex chart. It is more important than any current chart pattern. This is especially true because the daily chart is in the middle of a 3 month trading range. Neither the bulls nor the bears have had an advantage that lasted more than a week.<\/p>\nOvernight EURUSD Forex trading<\/h3>\n
\nThe EURUSD 5 minute Forex chart has been in a 30 pip range over the past 6 hours. While yesterday’s selloff was strong, the 50 pip rally up from yesterday’s low created confusion. The result is that a trading range is likely this morning. Also, since the FOMC announcement is so important, most day traders will take quick profits until the news. Therefore the odds of a big swing up or down this morning are small. In addition, most will stop trading about 30 minutes before the report.<\/p>\n
\n<\/p>\nSummary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n
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\nToday rallied strongly on the FOMC report, but failed to close the gap on the weekly chart. Instead, it reversed down from a big expanding triangle, and then back above yesterday’s high. These repeated big reversals are a sign of confusion. The Emini is still deciding whether the sell signal or the buy signal on the weekly chart is in control. Since the monthly chart is in a strong bull trend, the odds favor the bulls.
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