{"id":77264,"date":"2018-04-10T06:20:55","date_gmt":"2018-04-10T13:20:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=77264"},"modified":"2018-05-11T09:33:19","modified_gmt":"2018-05-11T16:33:19","slug":"emini-breakout-mode-awaiting-trumps-response-syria-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/analysis\/market-update\/emini-breakout-mode-awaiting-trumps-response-syria-china\/","title":{"rendered":"Emini in breakout mode awaiting Trump&#8217;s response to Syria and China <br \/>Intraday market update: April 10, 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Emini in breakout mode awaiting Trump&#8217;s response to Syria and China<\/h2>\n<p class=\"caption\">Updated 6:41 a.m.<\/p>\n<p>The Emini had a big gap up. It opened within the 3 hour trading range that formed at yesterday&#8217;s high. The odds are that it will be sideways for the 1st hour until it gets closer to the EMA, and then decide on the direction of the 1st swing.<\/p>\n<p>A big gap up increases the chance of a trend day. Furthermore, it increases the chance of a bull trend day. However, the bulls need a breakout far above yesterday&#8217;s high before traders believe that the bull trend on the daily chart is resuming. Therefore, yesterday&#8217;s high is important resistance.<\/p>\n<p>At the moment, the Emini is Always In Long, but in yesterday&#8217;s tight trading range. Even though the 1st bar was a bear bar, the odds favor an attempt to get above yesterday&#8217;s high. The bears want a reversal down from there. If they get a good sell signal bar in the 1st hour, it could be a reasonable sell setup.  Most likely, this will be a trading range open for the 1st hour. The odds are against a big bear day after a strong reversal up.<\/p>\n<h2>Pre-Open market analysis<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nThe Emini yesterday rallied in a small pullback bull trend. There was a late selloff from just below Friday&#8217;s high, which converted the day into a bear trend reversal day. However, the 12 day tight trading range is about as likely to have a bull breakout as a breakout. Until there is a breakout, traders expect legs up and down to continue to reverse every 1 &#8211; 3 days.<\/p>\n<p>Nothing has changed on the daily chart. The bears want a break below last week&#8217;s low. They see a double top bear flag on the daily chart over the past 2 weeks. When a market turns down from a double top, it usually does so in a bear channel. That means it typically has 1 &#8211; 2 day rallies along the way. However, the bears will only give up if there is a strong break above the double top of the March 27 and April 5 highs.<\/p>\n<h3>Overnight Emini Globex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EMINI GLOBEX TRADING --><br \/>\nThe Emini is up 29 points in the Globex market. It will therefore gap above yesterday&#8217;s close. In addition, the gap up will reverse yesterday&#8217;s late selloff.<\/p>\n<p>In the Globex session, the Emini reversed up sharply and then went sideways for hours. This is a reversal and then a bull flag. It is therefore a cup and handle pattern. There is a 60% chance of at least a small 2nd leg up in the day session. The bulls need a strong break above last week&#8217;s high to convince traders that the bull trend on the monthly chart is resuming. <\/p>\n<h4>Gap up increases the chance of a trend day up or down<\/h4>\n<p>A big gap up open will mean that the Emini is far above the 5 minute EMA. When that is the case, the bulls tend to hesitate. They prefer to buy closer to the average price. As a result, there is a 50% chance of a trading range for the 1st hour. Once the Emini gets near the EMA, the bulls will look for an opening reversal up. The bears, however, want a strong break below the EMA and then a selloff down to yesterday&#8217;s close.<\/p>\n<p>Today&#8217;s gap up will make yesterday&#8217;s low a higher low major trend reversal on the 60 minute chart. However, the Emini has been in a tight trading range for 12 days. Until there is a strong breakout above or below, the odds favor reversals rather than breakouts. Consequently, if there is rally today, the bulls will be quick to exit if it begins to reverse.<\/p>\n<p>The bears want a reversal down from below yesterday&#8217;s high. That would create a 4 day triangle within the 12 day range. However, that is not especially important. The 12 day range is the dominant feature. <\/p>\n<p>They would be just as happy if there was a reversal down from above yesterday&#8217;s high. They simply need a reversal down now that the Emini is near the top of the range. Therefore, they will look for a bear reversal day. Reversals often come after 2 &#8211; 3 hours. Hence, if there is not a selloff on the open, that is the next time when they will look for a top.<\/p>\n<h2>Yesterday&#8217;s setups<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT YESTERDAY'S CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/ES-7.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/ES-7-600x335.png\" alt=\"Emini bear trend reversal day\" width=\"600\" height=\"335\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-77313\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/ES-7-600x335.png 600w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/ES-7-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/ES-7-768x429.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/ES-7.png 1683w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I sometimes also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars.<\/p>\n<p><!--  EURUSD FOREX MARKET TRADING STRATEGIES  --><\/p>\n<h2>EURUSD 3 day rally in trading range<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT FOREX CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/EC-8.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/EC-8-600x338.png\" alt=\"EURUSD Forex bull leg in trading range after Trump&#039;s tariff war with China.\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-77319\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/EC-8-600x338.png 600w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/EC-8-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/EC-8-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/EC-8.png 1687w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">The EURUSD daily Forex chart has rallied for 3 days. Yet, it is in the middle of a 4 month trading range and there is no sign of a breakout. The bears want a lower high and a strong break below the April 6 low. However, the bulls want a strong breakout above the March 27 high.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET FOREX ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nThe EURUSD daily Forex chart has rallied for 3 days after a failed breakout below the March 20 low. It continues to have 1 &#8211; 2 week legs up and down. <\/p>\n<p>While the bears want a double top bear flag with the April 2 high, this rally is too far above that high. Traders are paying more attention now to the March 27 major lower high. They will see a reversal down at this point more as a lower high in a broad bear channel that began on February 16. <\/p>\n<p>The chart is obviously also in a trading range. Yet, if there is a strong break below the March 1 low, traders will say that the bear trend began with the February 16 high.<\/p>\n<p>A trading range also is in a bull trend. If there is a strong break above the March 27 high, traders will say that the bull trend resumption began with the March 1 low. My 80% rule says that 80% of breakout attempts in trading ranges fail. Traders will continue to look for reversals until there is a clear, strong breakout above or below the 4 month range.<\/p>\n<p>At some point there will be a pair of strong trend bars that break beyond the 4 month range. The breakout can be up or down. Once that happens, traders will switch their trading style. They will begin to hold onto positions for a 300 pip measured move.<\/p>\n<h3>Overnight EURUSD Forex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EURUSD FOREX TRADING --><br \/>\nThe EURUSD 5 minute Forex chart rallied 80 pips overnight. It is breaking above the April 2 lower high. The bulls want a 150 pip measured move up. <\/p>\n<p>However, trading ranges constantly disappoint both bulls and bears. Therefore, the overnight rally is more likely to stall today. A trading range today is more likely than a continued rally.<\/p>\n<p>Look at the 60 minute chart. Breakouts up and down last one or 2 bars and then lead to tight ranges for 10 or more bars. That is what is likely today. Consequently, the 5 minute chart is likely to be sideways in a 30 &#8211; 50 pip range. <\/p>\n<p>There are 2 alternatives with a lower probability. If the rally of the past hour continues, the odds of a test of the March 27 high this week go up. That is another 100 pips above. Less likely, today will reverse down 50 pips. Hence, today would be a sell signal bar on the daily chart. The odds would then favor a test of the April 6 low. This is about 100 pips below today&#8217;s low.<br \/>\n<!--  SUMMARY OF TODAY'S EMINI PRICE ACTION  --><\/p>\n<h2>Summary of today&#8217;s S&amp;P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n<p><!-- EOD CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/ES-8.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/ES-8-600x337.png\" alt=\"Emini gap up and trading range.\" width=\"600\" height=\"337\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-77328\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/ES-8-600x337.png 600w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/ES-8-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/ES-8-768x431.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/ES-8.png 1680w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">After a big gap up, the Emini went sideways today. It is just below resistance on the daily chart.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT EOD COMMENTS --><br \/>\nThe Emini was in a trading range day today after gapping up. It is just below the top of a 3 week trading range and at the 20 day EMA. The bulls need a strong breakout and the bears want a reversal down. The odds favor a continuation of today&#8217;s range tomorrow.<br \/>\n<!--  FOOTER TEXT AND LINKS  --><\/p>\n<p>See the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly candlestick chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p class=\"caption\">Traders can see the end of the day <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/profile.php?mode=profil&amp;sub=profile_prefer&amp;mod=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&amp;P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\">trading room<\/a>. We offer a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Standard Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PST, and closes at 1:15 pm PST). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the <a title=\"Emini intraday market update\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\">Intraday Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Emini in breakout mode awaiting Trump&#8217;s response to Syria and China Updated 6:41 a.m. The Emini had a big gap up. It opened within the 3 hour trading range that formed at yesterday&#8217;s high. The odds are that it will be sideways for the 1st hour until it gets closer to the EMA, and then [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"shadow","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-77264","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-market-update","7":"entry","8":"has-post-thumbnail","9":"override"},"featured_image_src":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77264","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77264"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77264\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77264"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77264"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77264"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}