{"id":77651,"date":"2018-05-03T06:20:42","date_gmt":"2018-05-03T13:20:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=77651"},"modified":"2018-05-07T23:41:50","modified_gmt":"2018-05-08T06:41:50","slug":"emini-triggered-buy-signal-fomc-weak-entry-bar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/analysis\/market-update\/emini-triggered-buy-signal-fomc-weak-entry-bar\/","title":{"rendered":"Emini triggered buy signal after FOMC but weak entry bar <br \/>Intraday market update: May 3, 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Emini triggered buy signal after FOMC but weak entry bar<\/h2>\n<p class=\"caption\">I will update again at the end of the day<\/p>\n<h2>Pre-Open market analysis<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nYesterday was an FOMC report day. The report led to a break above Tuesday&#8217;s high. That triggered a buy signal on the daily chart. However, the Emini immediately reversed down strongly. It therefore was a terrible buy entry bar on the daily chart. <\/p>\n<p>The bulls need strong buying over the next couple of days to make the buy signal lead to a bull trend. Without that, the Emini will remain in its 4 month trading range. Furthermore, it would have a 50% chance of testing the April and February lows.<\/p>\n<p>The bears see yesterday as a sell signal bar on the daily chart. They need strong selling over the next couple of days if they are to test the bottom of the 4 month range. <\/p>\n<p>The Emini has been sideways for 4 months. Therefore, the odds are that the bears will be disappointed by a lack of strong selling over the next few days. Trading ranges are more likely to continue than to break into trends. As a result, it is better to bet on reversals than on breakouts.<\/p>\n<p>All trading ranges eventually break out. Traders need to see a strong breakout bar and a follow-through bar before they will believe that the trading range has evolved into a trend.<\/p>\n<h3>Overnight Emini Globex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EMINI GLOBEX TRADING --><br \/>\nThe Emini is down 5 points in the Globex market. It therefore might gap down. If so, the gap will be small and therefore likely to close in the 1st hour. <\/p>\n<p>Because yesterday was a sell climax, there is a 50% chance of at least 2 hours of sideways to up trading that begins by the end of the 2nd hour. There is a 50% chance of follow-through selling in the 1st 2 hours.<\/p>\n<p>Look at the daily chart over the past month. Most strong moves up and down lasted only 1 &#8211; 2 days. When in a trading range, the bulls and bears are disappointed constantly. Hence, as strong as yesterday&#8217;s selling was, traders will look for a reversal up today or tomorrow.<\/p>\n<h2>Yesterday&#8217;s setups<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT YESTERDAY'S CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/ES-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/ES-1-600x318.png\" alt=\"FOMC report created bear trend reversal in Emini.\" width=\"680\" height=\"382\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-77707\" title=\"\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I sometimes also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars.<\/p>\n<p><!--  EURUSD FOREX MARKET TRADING STRATEGIES  --><\/p>\n<h2>EURUSD minor parabolic wedge bottom<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT FOREX CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/EC-3.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/EC-3-600x336.png\" alt=\"EURUSD parabolic wedge bottom.\" width=\"680\" height=\"382\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-77712\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/EC-3-600x336.png 600w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/EC-3-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/EC-3-768x431.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/EC-3.png 1691w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">The EURUSD daily Forex chart fell 500 pips in a tight bear channel over the past 3 weeks. The channel has had 3 pause bar and is therefore a parabolic wedge. Furthermore, it is just above the January 9 major higher low.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET FOREX ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nThe EURUSD daily Forex chart is in a strong breakout below a 4 month trading range. Since the selloff is in a parabolic wedge channel, it is climactic. In addition, it is just above the January 9 major higher low. Therefore, the odds favor a 150 pip bounce over the next couple of weeks to test the March 1 bottom of the early 2018 trading range.<\/p>\n<p>The selling is so strong that the bulls might need a micro double bottom before the bounce will begin. So far, today is a bull inside bar in a bear trend. It is therefore a Low 1 sell signal bar. <\/p>\n<p>But, since the selloff is climactic and near support, there are probably more buyers than sellers below today&#8217;s low. Consequently, many bears will take profits below today&#8217;s low and around 1.1900, expecting a breakout test rally to around 1.21 over the next couple of weeks. <\/p>\n<p>Since the bear channel is tight, the odds are that the 1st reversal up will be minor. Hence, the bears will sell again around 1.2100 and the March 1 low, which will be around the 20 day EMA.<\/p>\n<p>Bull scalpers understand this. They will therefore begin to buy below bars, looking for 50 &#8211; 100 pips profit.<\/p>\n<h3>Overnight EURUSD Forex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EURUSD FOREX TRADING --><br \/>\nThe EURUSD 5 minute Forex chart rallied 70 pips overnight. Since the daily chart is in a sell climax, day trading bulls will look to buy selloffs to prior lows, looking for 30 &#8211; 50 pip swings up. Swing trading bulls will buy low and look for a test of 1.2100 over the next 2 weeks.<\/p>\n<p>A sell climax usually transitions into a trading range. Day trading bears will sell rallies, but they will take profits around prior lows.  Swing trading bears will wait to sell a rally above 1.2100.<\/p>\n<p>The bars and legs are big enough for bull and bear scalpers to look for 20 &#8211; 30 pips profit.<br \/>\n<!--  SUMMARY OF TODAY'S EMINI PRICE ACTION  --><\/p>\n<h2>Summary of today&#8217;s S&amp;P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n<p><!-- EOD CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/ES-2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/ES-2-600x337.png\" alt=\"Emini reversal day up from 2600\" width=\"680\" height=\"382\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-77721\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/ES-2-600x337.png 600w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/ES-2-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/ES-2-768x431.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/ES-2.png 1683w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Today reversed up strongly from the 2600 Big Round Number and last week&#8217;s low. It closed slightly above the open.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT EOD COMMENTS --><br \/>\nToday was a bull reversal day, and it is a buy signal bar for tomorrow. It is a High 2 buy setup with the April 25 low. This increases the chance of a bull trend day tomorrow. However, the odds are that this week will still be a bear bar on the weekly chart. The bulls would need several strong bull trend days next week to make the weekly chart bullish again.<br \/>\n<!--  FOOTER TEXT AND LINKS  --><\/p>\n<p>See the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly candlestick chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p class=\"caption\">Traders can see the end of the day <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/profile.php?mode=profil&amp;sub=profile_prefer&amp;mod=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&amp;P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\">trading room<\/a>. We offer a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Standard Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PST, and closes at 1:15 pm PST). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the <a title=\"Emini intraday market update\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\">Intraday Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Emini triggered buy signal after FOMC but weak entry bar I will update again at the end of the day Pre-Open market analysis Yesterday was an FOMC report day. The report led to a break above Tuesday&#8217;s high. That triggered a buy signal on the daily chart. However, the Emini immediately reversed down strongly. It [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"shadow","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-77651","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-market-update","7":"entry","8":"has-post-thumbnail","9":"override"},"featured_image_src":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77651","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77651"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77651\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77651"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77651"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77651"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}