{"id":80462,"date":"2018-08-10T06:20:47","date_gmt":"2018-08-10T13:20:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=80462"},"modified":"2018-08-10T13:42:42","modified_gmt":"2018-08-10T20:42:42","slug":"emini-outside-down-day-and-micro-double-top","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/analysis\/market-update\/emini-outside-down-day-and-micro-double-top\/","title":{"rendered":"Emini outside down day and micro double top<br \/>Intraday market update: Friday August 10, 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Emini outside down day and micro double top<\/h2>\n<p class=\"caption\">I will update again at the end of the day.<\/p>\n<h2>Pre-Open market analysis<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nAfter a 4 day parabolic wedge rally on the 60 minute chart, the Emini has been in a tight range for 3 days. However, yesterday was an outside down day. It also was a micro double top on the daily chart. It is therefore a sell signal bar for today. Furthermore, a gap down today would create a 3 day island top. That could lead to a deeper pullback. But, the odds still favor a new all-time high within a couple months.<\/p>\n<p>Today is Friday, but there is no nearby major weekly support or resistance. The bulls want the week to close on its high. At a minimum, they want a close above the midpoint and above last week&#8217;s high. The bears always want the opposite. If the week closes below its midpoint, it will be a sell signal bar on the weekly chart for next week.<\/p>\n<h3>Overnight Emini Globex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EMINI GLOBEX TRADING --><br \/>\nThe Emini is down 13 points in the Globex session. It will probably gap down and create a 3 day island top. The bears hope that this is the start of a double top reversal with the January high. More likely, it is a bear leg in a 4 month bull channel. However, if the bears begin to get a series of big bear trend days, the selloff could be deep. The next major support is the August 2 buy climax low at 2795.00.<\/p>\n<p>The gap down will be big. It is coming after a buy climax and at the top of a 7 month trading range. This increases the chance of at least several days down. Bear legs typically have mostly bear trend days. Therefore, there is an increased chance of a bear trend day today.<\/p>\n<p>However, the 4 day rally was strong, as has been the leg up from June 28. There is therefore a 40% chance of a strong bull trend day that rallies back above yesterday&#8217;s low and closes the gap. Traders need to be ready for anything today. The big gap down at major resistance increases the odds of a trend day up or down. If there is a big trend day, down is more likely.<\/p>\n<h2>Yesterday&#8217;s setups<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT YESTERDAY'S CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-outside-down-day.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-outside-down-day-680x382.png\" alt=\"Emini outside down day\" width=\"680\" height=\"382\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-80590\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-outside-down-day-680x382.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-outside-down-day-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-outside-down-day-768x431.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-outside-down-day.png 1490w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I sometimes also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars. My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not in a position at the moment, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.<\/p>\n<p><!--  EURUSD FOREX MARKET TRADING STRATEGIES  --><\/p>\n<h2>EURUSD Forex breakout below 3 month trading range<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT FOREX CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/EURUSD-Forex-breakout-below-3-month-trading-range.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/EURUSD-Forex-breakout-below-3-month-trading-range-680x382.png\" alt=\"EURUSD Forex breakout below 3 month trading range\" width=\"680\" height=\"382\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-80600\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/EURUSD-Forex-breakout-below-3-month-trading-range-680x382.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/EURUSD-Forex-breakout-below-3-month-trading-range-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/EURUSD-Forex-breakout-below-3-month-trading-range-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/EURUSD-Forex-breakout-below-3-month-trading-range.png 1503w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">The EURUSD daily Forex chart has a big bear trend bar so far today. It is a breakout below a 3 month trading range and a resumption of the May bear trend. <\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET FOREX ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nThe EURUSD daily Forex chart broke below the 3 month trading range today. For the past several weeks, I said that there would probably be a breakout within a couple of weeks because the daily chart worked its way into a triangle apex. Last week, I said that the 5 consecutive bear days made a bear breakout likely. Today is the breakout. The bigger a bear day the bears get today and the more it closes on its low, the more likely the breakout will succeed. In addition, if there are follow-through bear days over the next few days, the odds will favor a 300 pip measured move down.<\/p>\n<p>If the bulls get a strong bull trend day in the next couple of days and then additional bull days, the breakout will fail. They have a 40% chance of success at the moment.<\/p>\n<p>A big breakout from an extended trading range changes the market from a trading range to a trend. That increases the odds of more trend days over the next week or more. Therefore, day traders will be more willing to hold onto swing trades for more pips. <\/p>\n<h3>Overnight EURUSD Forex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EURUSD FOREX TRADING --><br \/>\nEvery trend has pauses. When there is a trading range on the 5 minute chart, day traders will scalp. The 5 minute chart has been in a 40 pip range for the past 8 hours, which is a scalper&#8217;s market. However, day traders will be more willing to swing part of their shorts because of the new bear trend on the daily chart.<br \/>\n<!--  SUMMARY OF TODAY'S EMINI PRICE ACTION  --><\/p>\n<h2>Summary of today&#8217;s S&amp;P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n<p><!-- EOD CHART --><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-island-top-and-wedge-bear-flag-followed-by-bull-trend-reversal.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-island-top-and-wedge-bear-flag-followed-by-bull-trend-reversal-680x381.png\" alt=\"Emini island top and wedge bear flag followed by bull trend reversal\" width=\"680\" height=\"381\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-80626\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-island-top-and-wedge-bear-flag-followed-by-bull-trend-reversal-680x381.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-island-top-and-wedge-bear-flag-followed-by-bull-trend-reversal-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-island-top-and-wedge-bear-flag-followed-by-bull-trend-reversal-768x430.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-island-top-and-wedge-bear-flag-followed-by-bull-trend-reversal.png 1686w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups for today. I sometimes also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars. My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not in a position at the moment, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT EOD COMMENTS --><br \/>\nThe Emini gapped down and formed a 3 day island top. It sold off to the 50% pullback level from last week&#8217;s 4 day rally and reversed up strongly at the end of the day. Today was a doji day on the daily chart. The bulls hope for a gap up on Monday. That would create a one day island bottom and erase much of today&#8217;s bearishness. More likely, the Emini will pull back for at least a couple weeks.<\/p>\n<p>The candlestick on the weekly chart is also a doji and a sell signal bar for next week. A reversal after a buy climax typically falls in at least 2 legs and lasts 10 or more bars. Therefore, the Emini will probably pull back for at least a couple of weeks. It might test last week&#8217;s buy climax low at 2795.00.<br \/>\n<!--  FOOTER TEXT AND LINKS  --><\/p>\n<p>See the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly candlestick chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p class=\"caption\">Traders can see the end of the day <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/profile.php?mode=profil&amp;sub=profile_prefer&amp;mod=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&amp;P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\">trading room<\/a>. We offer a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Standard Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PST, and closes at 1:15 pm PST). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the <a title=\"Emini intraday market update\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\">Intraday Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Emini outside down day and micro double top I will update again at the end of the day. Pre-Open market analysis After a 4 day parabolic wedge rally on the 60 minute chart, the Emini has been in a tight range for 3 days. However, yesterday was an outside down day. It also was a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"shadow","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-80462","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-market-update","7":"entry","8":"has-post-thumbnail","9":"override"},"featured_image_src":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80462","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=80462"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80462\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=80462"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=80462"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=80462"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}