{"id":81433,"date":"2018-09-11T06:20:27","date_gmt":"2018-09-11T13:20:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=81433"},"modified":"2018-09-11T13:40:03","modified_gmt":"2018-09-11T20:40:03","slug":"emini-weak-breakout-above-7-day-bear-micro-channel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/analysis\/market-update\/emini-weak-breakout-above-7-day-bear-micro-channel\/","title":{"rendered":"Emini weak breakout above 7 day bear micro channel <br \/>Intraday market update: Tuesday September 11, 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Emini weak breakout above 7 day bear micro channel<\/h2>\n<p class=\"caption\">I will update again at the end of the day.<\/p>\n<h2>Pre-Open market analysis<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nYesterday was the 1st day in 7 days that traded above the prior day&#8217;s high. A 7 bar bear micro channel is a sign of strong bears. Therefore, there were more likely going to be more sellers than buyers above Friday&#8217;s high. The result was a failed breakout above Friday&#8217;s high on the open. Yesterday is a sell signal bar for today.<\/p>\n<p>Furthermore, the Emini should test the bull trend line below last week&#8217;s low. It can get there by going sideways or down. Even if today trades above yesterday&#8217;s high, the magnet of the bottom of the channel is strong. Most bulls will not buy until that bull trend line has been touched, or unless there is a strong rally from here. The bulls want to see a strong reversal up from that support. <\/p>\n<p>If instead the Emini simply rallies strongly this week without touching the line, traders will conclude that Friday&#8217;s test was good enough. More likely, the Emini will need to touch that line.<\/p>\n<h4>Minor sell signal on the weekly chart<\/h4>\n<p>There is a 6 week parabolic wedge top on the weekly chart. This is a small pattern and therefore minor. The bears want it to be a failed breakout above the January high. Last week was a bear bar and therefore a 2 bar reversal with the prior week. It is a sell signal bar for this minor top. <\/p>\n<p>Since there is a bull trend line on the daily chart around last week&#8217;s low, the Emini will probably trade below last week&#8217;s low in its test of that trend line. That would trigger the weekly sell signal. <\/p>\n<p>Every selloff since the January high ended after 1 &#8211; 3 weeks. This includes the huge February collapse. Traders will therefore expect the same this time, and look for a reversal back up within 2 &#8211; 3 weeks.<\/p>\n<p>Can a minor top like this lead to a major trend reversal? Here, a bear trend and a break below the February low. In general, there is a 20% chance. The odds go up if the bears begin to get consecutive big bear bars on the weekly chart. Also, if there is a strong minor reversal and then a failed attempt to resume the bull trend, there would then be a major trend reversal sell setup.<\/p>\n<h3>Overnight Emini Globex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EMINI GLOBEX TRADING --><br \/>\nThe Emini is down 8 points in the Globex session. It will therefore gap down on the open. Since last week&#8217;s low and the daily bull trend line are just below, the Emini should trade lower this week. There is therefore an increased chance of a bear trend day today. However, most days over the past 2 weeks have had mostly trading range trading. Therefore, even if today sells off, the odds are against a strong bear trend.<\/p>\n<h2>Yesterday&#8217;s setups<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT YESTERDAY'S CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Emini-failed-breakout-above-8-day-bear-micro-channel.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Emini-failed-breakout-above-8-day-bear-micro-channel-680x387.png\" alt=\"Emini failed breakout above 8 day bear micro channel\" width=\"680\" height=\"387\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-81519\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Emini-failed-breakout-above-8-day-bear-micro-channel-680x387.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Emini-failed-breakout-above-8-day-bear-micro-channel-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Emini-failed-breakout-above-8-day-bear-micro-channel-768x437.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Emini-failed-breakout-above-8-day-bear-micro-channel.png 1669w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I sometimes also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars. My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not in a position at the moment, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.<\/p>\n<p><!--  EURUSD FOREX MARKET TRADING STRATEGIES  --><\/p>\n<h2>EURUSD Forex head and shoulders top and triangle bull flag so Breakout Mode<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT FOREX CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/EURUSD-Forex-head-and-shoulders-top-and-triangle-bull-flag-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/EURUSD-Forex-head-and-shoulders-top-and-triangle-bull-flag-1-680x383.png\" alt=\"EURUSD Forex head and shoulders top and triangle bull flag\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-81525\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/EURUSD-Forex-head-and-shoulders-top-and-triangle-bull-flag-1-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/EURUSD-Forex-head-and-shoulders-top-and-triangle-bull-flag-1-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/EURUSD-Forex-head-and-shoulders-top-and-triangle-bull-flag-1-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/EURUSD-Forex-head-and-shoulders-top-and-triangle-bull-flag-1.png 1688w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">The EURUSD daily Forex chart has been in a trading range for 3 weeks. There is therefore both a buy setup and a sell setup. The bears have a head and shoulders top and the bulls have a triangle bull flag.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET FOREX ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nThe EURUSD daily Forex chart is in a 3 week triangle and therefore in Breakout Mode. Furthermore, that triangle is in a 5 month trading range. Since there is no sign of an impending breakout, traders will take profits after 2 &#8211; 5 days and look for reversals.<\/p>\n<p>The August reversal was strong and the weekly chart is probably having a 7 month pullback in a bull trend. Consequently, the odds ultimately favor a bull breakout. But, until there is a breakout, there is no breakout. Traders will expect every strong 3 &#8211; 5 day move up or down to reverse.<\/p>\n<h4>3 week Triangle means Breakout Mode<\/h4>\n<p>While the bulls have a triangle bull flag, triangles are not high probability setups. The initial breakout up or down reverses 50% of the time. In addition, the successful breakout has almost an equal chance of being up or down. There is therefore a 50% chance of a break below 1.15 before a test of the 1.1750 top of the 5 month range. However, there will probably be buyers above 1.14.<\/p>\n<h3>Overnight EURUSD Forex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EURUSD FOREX TRADING --><br \/>\nThe EURUSD 5 minute Forex chart sold off 80 pips overnight after a rally for a day and a half. Big Up, Big Down creates Big Confusion. Therefore, the selloff will probably disappoint the bears, just like reversal down from the the rally disappointed the bulls. Today will probably be a trading range day in the middle of a 7 day tight trading range.<\/p>\n<p><!--  SUMMARY OF TODAY'S EMINI PRICE ACTION  --><\/p>\n<h2>Summary of today&#8217;s S&amp;P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n<p><!-- EOD CHART --><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Emini-outside-up-day-and-bull-trend-from-the-open.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Emini-outside-up-day-and-bull-trend-from-the-open-680x381.jpg\" alt=\"Emini outside up day and bull trend from the open\" width=\"680\" height=\"381\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-81535\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Emini-outside-up-day-and-bull-trend-from-the-open-680x381.jpg 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Emini-outside-up-day-and-bull-trend-from-the-open-300x168.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Emini-outside-up-day-and-bull-trend-from-the-open-768x430.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Emini-outside-up-day-and-bull-trend-from-the-open.jpg 1685w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups for today. I sometimes also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars. My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not in a position at the moment, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT EOD COMMENTS --><br \/>\nThe Emini reversed up from below yesterday&#8217;s low and broke above yesterday&#8217;s high. It therefore was an outside up day, which is a sign of strong bulls. It also formed a micro double bottom with Friday&#8217;s low. <\/p>\n<p>However, it is in a 4 day tight trading range. Furthermore, it has not yet pulled back to the bull trend line, which is now around yesterday&#8217;s low. Therefore, unless there is strong follow-through buying this week, the odds will continue to favor a test of that bull trend line before the bull trend resumes.<br \/>\n<!--  FOOTER TEXT AND LINKS  --><\/p>\n<p>See the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly candlestick chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p class=\"caption\">Traders can see the end of the day <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/profile.php?mode=profil&amp;sub=profile_prefer&amp;mod=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&amp;P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\">trading room<\/a>. We offer a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Standard Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PST, and closes at 1:15 pm PST). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the <a title=\"Emini intraday market update\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\">Intraday Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Emini weak breakout above 7 day bear micro channel I will update again at the end of the day. Pre-Open market analysis Yesterday was the 1st day in 7 days that traded above the prior day&#8217;s high. A 7 bar bear micro channel is a sign of strong bears. Therefore, there were more likely going [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"shadow","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-81433","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-market-update","7":"entry","8":"has-post-thumbnail","9":"override"},"featured_image_src":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81433","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=81433"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81433\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=81433"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=81433"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=81433"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}