Emini and Forex Trading Update:
Monday March 29, 2021
Pre-Open market analysis of daily chart
- Wednesday is the end of the 1st quarter, and there has been a 1st quarter window dressing rally since Thursday. The buying could continue all week.
- Despite Friday’s strong rally into the close, the Emini will probably not gap up to a new high on both the daily and weekly charts today.
- If Wednesday closes near the high of the month, April could gap up to a new high Thursday on the monthly chart.
- Since Wednesday is also the end of the month, monthly support and resistance can be important, especially in the final hour. The 4,000 Big Round Number is a magnet above, and the February high is a magnet below.
- A reversal can come at any time, but with Thursday and Friday being so exceptionally strong, the odds of a big bear trend are less today. Today will probably be sideways to up. If it is down, it will likely not be a big bear day.
Overnight Emini Globex trading on 5-minute chart
- Down 20 points in Globex session after Friday being big bull trend day. Big bull days on March 15, 17, and 22 all had bad follow-through on the next day. Therefore, increased chance of sideways to down today.
- Bulls unable to create big gap up today on daily and weekly charts. They are therefore not as strong as they appeared at the close of Friday. Reduced chance of big bull day today.
- Big Up Friday and Big Gap Down today creates Big Confusion. Confusion is a hallmark of a trading range, so increased chance of trading range for 1st 2 hours today.
- If today is going to be bear trend, will probably have to enter trading range for a couple hours first. Strong bull trend, like Friday, usually has to transition into trading range, before becoming bear trend day.
Friday’s Emini setups
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- Wedge bottom so profit taking rally likely soon.
- Should get down to November low, but could bounce for a couple weeks first.
- Today’s low is just above Friday’s low, and Friday was an inside bar. This is almost an ii pattern, and therefore it is almost as reliable.
- ii is Breakout Mode and therefore both a buy and sell signal.
- If today remains small, bulls will try to rally tomorrow. A strong short covering rally could lead to a couple legs up, lasting 2 to 3 weeks, after a wedge bottom.
- ii late in bear trend is usually Final Bear Flag. If bear breakout expect short covering rally from around November 4 low.
Overnight EURUSD Forex trading on 5-minute chart
- Today has continued Friday’s tight trading range.
- Tight trading range after extreme sell climax often represents exhaustion. If bears start to take profits, could get strong bull trend day.
- More reliable pattern for the bulls if they can keep today small, and then rally tomorrow.
- Since bear flag, could get resumption of bear trend for a couple days. But likely Final Bear Flag, so if bear breakout, could get reversal up in same day. More often, reversal comes at least a day later.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow
End of day summary
- Buy climax on the open, and then weak Spike and Channel bear trend for 2 hours.
- Reversed up from test of February high and 50% pullback. High 2 bottom and then higher low major trend reversal.
- Accelerated up to above Friday’s high, which was also last week’s high, but failed to make new all-time high.
- Entered trading range for 2nd half of day and closed in upper 3rd of range. Bull Trending Trading Range Day.
- On daily chart, bears want double top with high from 2 weeks ago and bigger double top with February high, but need bear bars.
- Odds favor test of 4,000 Big Round Number this week.
- Bulls want March to close near the high of the month and for April to gap up on the monthly chart on Thursday.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PT, and closes at 1:15 pm PT). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the Market Update page.