Trading Update: Monday July 12, 2021
Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- Strong bull trend and bull streaks. Friday made another new all-time high.
- Magnets above are measured move target at 4,404 and top of bull channel around 4,500.
- Streaks on daily and 60-minute charts ended last week. They increase the chance of exhausted bulls and sideways trading over next week or two. This reduces chance of big move up this week.
- If reversal down today or tomorrow, then expanding triangle top that began with July 2 high. Easier to see on 60-minute chart.
- Even if reverses down, odds still favor minor reversal, like all of the other reversals over the past year.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is down 3 points in the overnight Globex session.
- Friday was a buy climax day so 75% chance of at least a couple hours of sideways to down trading today that starts by the end of the 2nd hour.
- Magnet below is bottom of most recent buy climax, which is the tight bull channel that began midday Friday at 4351.25.
- Magnet above is Friday’s all-time high and then the 4404 measured move target.
Friday’s Emini setups
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- Reversing up from wedge bottom near bottom of yearlong trading range.
- Should test June 25 lower high, but might get one more leg down first.
- Probably buyers below July 7 low. If breakout below that low, should reverse up again and form a bigger wedge bottom.
- Today is reversing down from small double top with July 7 high.
- The small wedge bottom should lead to at least a small 2nd leg sideways to up so probably only 1 – 2 day pullback.
- Traders are deciding if the rally to the June 25 high has begun or if there will be a brief selloff to below the July 7 low before the reversal up.
- Might form small triangle starting with July 7 high before deciding.
- Nothing is clear in a trading range, so when nothing is clear (clear means high probability), the market is probably in a trading range. This range began June 18.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow
End of day summary
- Weak Bull Trend From The Open, which broke to new all-time high but evolved into trading range.
- Bulls got a little trend resumption up at end of day.
- Still strongly bullish on daily, weekly, and monthly charts, so probably limited downside for at least another week.
- July should close below open of month since 6 consecutive bull bars would be unusual on the monthly chart.
- With July likely to close below open of month and after 11-day micro channel (buy climax) ended last week, probably limited upside for remainder of month.
- Since probably will not go far up or down for at least a week, traders should expect the bull trend to evolve into a trading range.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PT, and closes at 1:15 pm PT, which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.