Emini and Forex Trading Update:
Thursday November 14, 2019
I will update again at the end of the day.
Pre-Open market analysis
Tuesday was a bad sell signal bar on the daily chart for the micro wedge top. Yesterday gapped down and triggered the sell signal, but then rallied for 4 hours. There was a late selloff but it was a bear trap. The Emini reversed back up to near the high of the day. It is therefore a buy signal bar for today.
However, there will probably be a 1 – 2 week pullback that starts in November. Therefore, the bulls might wait for the pullback before aggressively buying again.
The Emini has been unable to break strongly above 3100. This is disappointing the bulls. If they do not get their breakout soon, they will exit. Their long covering could be the start of a 2 week correction.
Tomorrow is Friday. If the Emini closes above Monday’s open, there will be 6 consecutive bull bars on the weekly chart. That is unusual and therefore extreme. Consequently, there is an increased chance of a selloff to below the open of the week by tomorrow’s close.
Overnight Emini Globex trading
The Emini is down 7 points in the Globex session. This is despite yesterday being a buy signal bar on the daily chart. Since it has been stalling at 3100 for 5 days, there is an increased chance of more sideways trading again today.
The weekly buy climax is getting extreme. There is therefore an increased risk of several bear trend days and a 2 week pullback beginning this month. The bulls might get one more brief new high before the pullback begins, but the bears will likely soon be in control.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
The EURUSD Forex market on the daily chart has sold off in a tight bear channel for 2 weeks. The bears hope it is a resumption of the 2 year bear trend.
However, it is still in the middle of a 3 month trading range. Also, there are 3 small pushes down over the past 5 days. That is a micro wedge sell climax and it could attract some profit taking for a few days. Additionally, it is testing the support of the October 15 low. That was the bottom of the final buy climax in the October rally.
Overnight EURUSD Forex trading
The EURUSD Forex market on the 5 minute chart overnight has again been in a tight range. This is what it has been doing for 6 days, even though it has been drifting lower.
Because the EURUSD is now at important support, it will soon either reverse up or break to the next support at the October low. But since the bear channel is tight, the bulls will need it to go sideways for a day or two.
Since the bars on the daily chart have been small, it will probably not break to the downside without forming a small bear flag. That means the bears need it to go sideways as well. Consequently, today will probably be another scalping day.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow
End of day summary
The Emini had a brief bear breakout and then a reversal up. Since the low was a measured move down from the high to the open, it was telling us that the open was important. However, instead of closing near the middle, it closed on the high. It also triggered a daily buy signal by going above yesterday’s high.
There are now 6 days in the tight trading range. The Emini is in Breakout Mode. While the odds favor a 2 week pullback to start before the end of the month, there is no top. The Emini is still going up.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Standard Time
When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Standard Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PST, and closes at 1:15 pm PST). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the Market Update page.