Emini and Forex Trading Update:
Wednesday November 13, 2019
I will update again at the end of the day.
Pre-Open market analysis
The Emini yesterday accomplished the 2 goals that I said were likely. The bulls got a breakout above 3100 and above Thursday’s high. As expected, many bulls took some profits. There is now a micro wedge on the daily chart. The ingredients are here for a 2 week pullback. A 6th consecutive bull bar on the weekly chart would be unusual and therefore this week should close below its open.
I know some technicians are predicting a 7% correction. Of course, we’ll get one, but when? I think it is more likely that the Emini sells off for 50 – 100 points over the next 2 weeks and then gets back up to today’s high. At that point, the bears would have a better chance of a 5% pullback. This is because the bears will probably need a micro double top on the weekly chart before they can get a 5% or more correction.
Yesterday is a sell signal bar for today for a micro wedge top over the past 7 days. Since it had a bull body, it is a low probability sell signal bar. The bears might need a micro double top on the daily chart before they get their 2 week correction.
The bulls want a breakout far above 3100. Yesterday’s profit taking from just a little above 3100 make a big breakout unlikely until after more of a pullback.
Overnight Emini Globex trading
The Emini is down 10 points in the Globex session. There is now a credible top on the daily chart and a pullback is likely on the weekly chart. That increases the chance of more bear trend days. But for the past month, even trend days up and down have spend much of the time in trading ranges. However, there is now an increased chance of a big bear day coming at any point.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
The EURUSD Forex on the daily chart has continued down in a tight bear channel. It is now testing the October 15 higher low. The bulls want a double bottom with that low. A reversal up would be a higher low major trend reversal. Traders would look for at least a test of the October high.
But a tight bear channel typically needs a micro double bottom before there can be a reversal. Consequently, the best the bulls can probably do over the next few days is to stop the selling and begin a small trading range.
The bears want the bear trend to continue. That means they need a break below the October low. There are 2 measured move targets around 1.08 and a gap there as well. At the moment, a bounce is more likely within a couple weeks. Since the recent bars are small, and the chart is just above support, today will also probably be mostly another trading range day.
Overnight EURUSD Forex trading
The EURUSD 5 minute Forex chart has been in a 25 pip range overnight. Day traders are scalping reversals for 10 pips, as they have been doing for days. Until there is a strong breakout up or down, they will continue to scalp.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow
End of day summary
The Emini had a bull trend resumption day. Today is a buy signal bar on the daily chart. However, a 1 – 2 week pullback should begin in November with the Emini falling at least 50 – 100 points. I doubt it will fall 8% without first forming a micro double top on the weekly chart. Also, remember that this week will still probably have a bear body on the weekly chart. Therefore, traders should expect a selloff to below the open of the week by Friday’s close.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Standard Time
When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Standard Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PST, and closes at 1:15 pm PST). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the Market Update page.