Emini and Forex Trading Update:
Monday June 24, 2019
I will update again at the end of the day.
Pre-Open market analysis
The Emini made 2 new all-time highs last week. Additionally, June is now a buy signal bar for July on the monthly chart. The bulls will try to have June close near its high to increase the chance of higher prices over the next couple months.
On the daily chart, Friday was a small bear reversal day. It is therefore a sell signal bar for today. But the June rally was strong and the 2 week bull channel has been tight. Traders expect the 1st reversal to be minor.
The tight trading range from 2 weeks ago is a potential Final Bull Flag and therefore a magnet below. However, the odds continue to favor higher prices over the next couple months, even if there is a pullback to 2900 1st.
Overnight Emini Globex trading
The Emini is up 6 points in the Globex session. Friday is a sell signal bar for a failed breakout to a new all-time high. Its low is not far below. Consequently, today will probably trade below Friday’s low and trigger the sell signal. Traders want to know if there will be more buyers or sellers below. Will a 1 – 3 day pullback begin today, or will the bears need a micro double top first?
Because the past 2 days were sideways, today will likely have a lot of trading range price action again. This is especially true ahead of the G20 Summit and China talks at the end of the week.
Since the breakout to a new high has been small, the odds favor a pullback this week. It might test back down to the tight trading around just below 2900 on the daily chart.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
The EURUSD daily Forex chart is reversing up strongly from a head and shoulders bottom. It now has higher lows and highs and therefore is in a bull trend. But, that trend is still within a yearlong bear trend. If the bulls can get consecutive closes above the January high, traders will conclude that the bear trend has ended.
This is the strongest rally in over a year. The bulls will buy the 1st reversal down. A breakout typically pulls back to test a prior high, which is a breakout point. Here, the choices are the April 12/June 12 double top around 1.13 and the May 1/May 13 double top around 1.1250.
After 4 bull days, the bears will probably need a micro double top before they can get a 3 – 5 day pullback. Therefore the best they probably can get over the next few days is a pause in the bull trend.
Overnight EURUSD Forex trading
The EURUSD 5 minute Forex chart rallied 30 pips overnight and broke above last week’s high. It has been in a small spike and channel bull trend for 5 hours. That usually evolves into a trading range. Therefore day traders will look for 10 – 20 pip scalps up and down today.
Traders expect more 2-sided trading over the next few days after a 200 pip rally with only small pullbacks. However, they will look to buy the 1st 50 – 100 pip selloff and expect a test of the rally’s high.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow
End of day summary
The Emini was in a small bear trending trading range day. This is the 3rd consecutive sideways day at the all-time high. It might continue mostly sideways until the China trade talks at the end of the week.
Because the breakout above the September/May double top was not big, there is an increased chance of a pullback over the next week. Friday was a sell signal bar. Today triggered the sell signal at the end of the day, but the breakout was small. In addition, it was a pullback to the 60 minute EMA. So far, this is a minor sell setup.
The tight trading range around 2900 is a possible Final Bull Flag and therefore a magnet below. But even if the bears get their pullback, the odds still favor higher prices over the next couple months.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Standard Time
When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Standard Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PST, and closes at 1:15 pm PST). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the Intraday Market Update page.