Emini and Forex Trading Update:
Friday June 28, 2019
I will update again at the end of the day.
Pre-Open market analysis
The Emini yesterday formed the 1st bull body on the daily chart in 5 days. After 4 consecutive bear bars, the odds are that this 1st rally attempt will fail within a couple days. Consequently, the upside is small. If the bulls are lucky, they will get back to the open of the week and create a doji bar on the weekly chart.
This weekend’s China trade talks could be an important catalyst. The result could be a big move up or down next week.
I have been writing all year that the Emini would probably get above the September high. The next target is around 3100 at the top of the expanding triangle on the monthly chart. But, the 4 day selloff still might test the tight trading range below 2900 1st.
Today is Friday and the last day of the month. There only nearby monthly target is the September high. June is already a buy signal bar for July because of the consecutive outside bars (oo buy setup).
The weekly targets are the open and low of the week. The bulls want a close above the open to prevent a bear bar on he weekly chart. If the bears can get the week to close on its low, this week will be a sell signal bar for next week.
Overnight Emini Globex trading
The Emini is up 7 points in the Globex session. It will therefore probably gap above yesterday’s high.
Because the daily and weekly charts are in strong bull trends, the bulls will try to resume the rally today. The 2956.00 open of the week is a magnet above. Today is Friday and therefore traders will pay attention to weekly support and resistance, especially in the final hour.
Since the week’s open is less than 20 points above the Globex price, it is within reach today. Because it is a magnet, it could pull the Emini up there by the close. Consequently, there is an increased chance of a bull trend today. This is especially true since the 4 day selloff made the daily chart oversold.
Most days over the past 3 weeks have had a lot of trading range price action. Even if today rallies, the rally will probably not be strong.
Just because there is an increased chance of a rally does not eliminate the chance of a bear trend day. If there is a strong early selloff, day traders will look to swing shorts.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
The EURUSD daily Forex chart has rallied for 6 weeks and it is now just below the March 20 major lower high. The past 2 days were consecutive inside days. They therefore formed an ii bull flag.
Today broke above yesterday’s high and therefore triggered the buy signal. The odds are that this rally will reach the target above.
However, the pullback from the breakout above the neck line of the head and shoulders top lasted only 1 day (Tuesday). That is probably not enough. Consequently, the daily chart might pull back more over the next week before testing the 1.1450 level. This is especially true because the ii bull flag is made of 2 dojis. They are a sign of a loss of momentum.
Overnight EURUSD Forex trading
The EURUSD 5 minute chart broke slightly above yesterday’s high, and it sold off 25 pips over the past 5 hours. This is therefore not a strong resumption of last week’s bull trend. It increases the chance of more sideways to down trading next week.
Because the daily chart triggered a buy signal by going above yesterday’s high, the bulls will try to get today to close near its high and above yesterday’s high. They will therefore buy pullbacks. But after 2 days in a tight trading range and now with a weak breakout, the bulls will probably only scalp.
The bears were able to prevent the formation of a strong buy signal bar on the daily chart and a big breakout above yesterday’s high. They therefore are willing to sell rallies. But the 5 hour selloff has been weak. Furthermore, the 3 sideways days will encourage them to continue to sell rallies and scalp for 10 pips.
With the bars small, the range tight, and bulls and bears both scalping, today will likely be another trading range day. This is especially true ahead of the uncertainty of the G20 meeting and the China trade talks this weekend.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow
I will post chart after the close.
End of day summary
Today was the last day of the week, month and quarter. That combination increased the chance of a big move at the end of the day. It resulted in a strong window dressing rally that reached to just below the open of the week and the May high.
The monthly bar closed near its high and June is a buy signal bar for July. The odds are that the buy signal will trigger next week. However, there is a risk of weekend surprise from the China trade talks. It could result in a big gap up or down on Monday.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Standard Time
When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Standard Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PST, and closes at 1:15 pm PST). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the Intraday Market Update page.