Emini weak buy signal ahead of October unemployment report
Pre-Open market analysis
Last week was a bear inside bar in a bull trend on the weekly chart. It is therefore a weak buy signal.
Yesterday was a doji inside day on the daily chart. Consequently, it, too, is a weak buy and sell signal bar for today. This is especially true since the Emini is near the top of a 3 week trading range. The odds favor continued intraday trading range trading until there is a clear breakout up or down on the daily chart.
There is almost a 50% chance that the September high is the start of a move down to the 20 week EMA. While the odds slightly favor a new high, a new high would be the 3rd leg up from the August 15 low. Consequently, the bears will sell a reversal down, betting on a test of the 20 week EMA.
Overnight Emini Globex trading
The Emini had a big gap up open. That increases the chance of a trend day, and up is more likely. But, there is an 80% chance of a trading range for the 1st hour. The bulls do not want to pay much more than average. This usually results in a sideways market until the Emini tests the EMA. At that point, the bulls look for a wedge bottom or a double bottom. The bears want a double top or a trend from the open bear trend.
Since most of the days over the past several weeks have been trading range days, the odds are that today will be another one. But, if there is a series of strong trend bars up or down, traders will swing trade. At the moment, the Emini is pulling back to test last week’s high.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
After 5 bear days, traders today sold above yesterday’s high. In addition, many bulls do not want to buy until there is at least a micro double bottom and a test of the 1.15 Big Round Number. However, the daily chart is at support. Therefore, the odds are that the selling will stop around 1.15 and the chart will begin to go sideways for a few days.
Overnight EURUSD Forex trading
The EURUSD 5 minute Forex chart rallied and reversed down overnight. There were sellers above yesterday’s high, and there will probably be buyers below its low and around the 1.15 Big Round Number. The overnight reversal is probably the start of a trading range day. Since the daily chart is oversold and at support, the downside is probably small. After 5 bear days, the upside is small as well. Consequently, today will probably be a trading range day.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow
The Emini gapped up, but reversed down from just below the September all-time high. It then twice tested last week’s high and reversed up. After a 4 hour triangle, the bears got their trend reversal down.
Today is a sell signal bar for tomorrow on the daily chart. But the Emini has been sideways for 3 weeks and there is no sign yet of a breakout in either direction. The weak late September rally increases the chances of a 2 – 3 week pullback beginning soon.
The bulls want a new all-time high. However, since that would be the 3rd leg up from the August 15 low, the bears would try to create a wedge reversal down if the bulls get their new high.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly candlestick chart and for what to expect going into next week.