Emini weekly sell signal bar after bad JPM earnings
The Emini gapped above yesterday’s high and to a new all-time high, but sold off on the 1st bar. Since yesterday formed a big wedge bottom, the odds are that there will be at least 2 legs sideways to up today. Therefore, the odds favor an opening reversal up that begins within the 1st hour. Yet, the Emini has sold off from a gap up 3 times over the past week. This means that bears are selling new highs and bulls are taking profits. In addition, the big bear bar on the open reduces the chances of a big bull trend day unless the selloff reverses up strongly.
The 2nd bar had a bull body, which is bad follow-through. The big breakout above yesterday’s wedge make at least a small 2nd leg up likely. Finally, the Mini has been in a trading range for 6 days. These factor make a big bear trend day unlikely.
Since the odds are against a big bull trend or a big bear trend day, today will probably be another mostly sideways day. The open of the week is a magnet going into the final hour.
Pre-Open market analysis
The Emini had a trading range day yesterday. Because the weekly and monthly charts are historically overbought, the odds favor a 100 point pullback beginning within weeks, not months. This week so far is a doji bar. That makes it a sell signal bar for next week. Today is Friday and the open of the week is therefore a magnet, especially in the final hour.
Overnight Emini Globex trading
The Emini is up 4 points in the Globex market and it might gap up to a new all-time high. There are measured move targets above and the rally on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts is strong. The odds favor higher prices. Yet, because of the extreme buy climaxes, the odds also favor a 100 point pullback beginning within a few weeks.
Because the Emini has been sideways for 6 days, the odds favor more trading range trading today. Since there were 2 strong selloffs after gaps up within this range, there is an increased risk of a reversal down from a gap up.
However, since the bull trend is strong, there is an increased chance of a bull trend day. Furthermore, buy climaxes often become extreme just before they end. Therefore, traders need to be ready for possibly a very big bull trend day at some point over the next few weeks.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
All trading ranges have reasonable buy and sell setups. In addition, they are always in an early bear trend and in a bull trend. You can see this after there is a successful breakout. For example, if the bears get a successful bear breakout, traders will say that the bear trend began with the September 8 high, which is now within the trading range.
The 3 month trading range on the EURUSD daily Forex chart has a double bottom with the August 17 low. In addition, if the current rally reverses down and there is a breakout below the range, the pattern would be a head and shoulders top.
Most trading range breakouts fail
Since markets have inertia, they resist change. Consequently, no matter how good a bull flag or major reversal is, the trading range is more likely to continue than breakout up or down.
The small wedge bottom had a strong 2 day breakout. Therefore, the odds are that it will have at least a 2nd leg up. The bulls need a strong break above the September 20 major lower high to get a resumption of the bull trend. It would then be in either a bull trend or a bigger trading range.
The bears will sell the rally. They want it to fail to get above the September 20 major lower high. As long as the chart is forming a series of major lower highs, it is in a bear trend. However, they need it to fall strongly below the August 17 major higher low to no longer be in a bull trend. If successful, it would then be in either a bear trend or a bigger trading range.
Overnight EURUSD Forex trading
The daily chart dipped below yesterday’s low overnight, but reversed up strongly in the past 10 minutes. The odds favored a 2nd leg up on the daily chart. This might be the start. However the chart could go sideways for a few more days even if today’s rally breaks above yesterday’s high.
The rally this morning is strong enough on the 5 minute chart to make at least a small 2nd leg up likely.
Yet, it is still in the middle of a 3 day range. Furthermore, the 3 day range is in the middle of the 3 month range. Therefore, traders expect disappointment. Consequently, while the odds of a rally from here are only slightly better than 50%, despite the 60 pip reversal up this morning. The if there is follow-through, bulls will swing trade.
If the rally strongly reverses, which is unlikely the bears will swing trade. Most likely, the rally will not be the start of a strong bull trend, and it will soon either enter a trading range or a weak bull channel.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow
Today was the 7th trading range day in a tight trading range. Since this week is a small bar after a big bull trend bar on the weekly chart, it is a sell signal bar. Normally, the tight channel would lead to a minor reversal. However, the buy climax is so extreme, the odds are that one of the reversals down will be the start of a 100 point pullback. Yet, since most reversals fail, traders will not believe that the pullback has begun until it is about 50% over.
The bull trends on all higher time frames are strong. In addition, there are measured move targets above. Therefore, the odds favor at least a little higher. But, the pullback will probably begin within the next several weeks.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly candlestick chart and for what to expect going into next week.