Emini and Forex Trading Update:
Thursday March 12, 2020
I will update again at the end of the day.
Pre-Open market analysis
The Emini is locked limit down (5% down) in the Globex market. It will probably gap down in the day session.
This is the 3rd leg down on the daily chart. There is now a parabolic wedge selloff. That typically attracts profit takers.
Traders should expect a strong short covering rally to begin within a week or so. It could last 1 – 2 weeks. But it will still be a bear rally. The daily chart will probably be sideways or down for at least a couple months.
The cash index fell 1 point below the 20% pullback level and reversed up yesterday. It will probably close below that price within a few weeks and maybe today. There would then officially be a bear market and the end of the 12 year bull trend. However, there might be a 1 – 2 week strong short covering rally before the cash index finally closes 20% down. More likely, the rally will come after.
Open of the week has been a magnet
The Emini has spent 3 days oscillating around the open of the week. It might be a magnet for the rest of the week. This is true even though the Emini is now far below.
If the short covering rally begins today, it could get back to the open by tomorrow’s close. The candlestick on the weekly chart would then be a doji. That would be more neutral and much less bearish than how it looks right now.
Overnight Emini Globex trading
After the president’s speech last night, the Emini sold off. It has been bouncing off the -5% Globex limit down level for several hours. That increases the chance of a gap below the Globex limit down level on the open.
The 1st limit down level for the day session is -7%, which is just 2% lower. But this selling on the daily chart has become extreme. It increases the chance of surprisingly strong short covering soon. There is therefore an increased chance of a strong bull trend reversal today.
The daily chart is obviously in a strong bear trend. While that typically increases the chance of a big trend day, that is less likely here. The daily chart is extremely oversold and it has 3 legs down. Traders know that the bears have huge profits and they are looking for any reason to buy back their shorts.
Also, many bulls are looking to buy the start of a short covering rally. With many traders wanting to buy this sell climax, there is a reduced chance of a big bear trend today, despite the Emini being locked limit down in the Globex session.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
The daily chart of the EURUSD Forex market has reversed down from a parabolic wedge buy climax. The profit taking will probably last a couple weeks.
This week so far is a big bear reversal bar on the weekly chart. The bears want the week to close near its low. This week would then be a sell signal bar for a failed breakout above the bear trend line and the high of the past 13 months.
Traders will look for the typical downside targets after a parabolic wedge rally on the daily chart. These are the bottom of the final leg up, the breakout point (the January 21 high), and the 20 day EMA. Traders should expect the EURUSD to work lower.
If today is a 3rd consecutive bear day, it will increase the chance of the pullback reaching the targets. This is especially true if today closes near its low. Furthermore, it would tend to make the pullback last longer and fall deeper than it otherwise might. Consequently, the bulls will try to prevent today from closing near its low.
Overnight EURUSD Forex trading
The 5 minute chart of the EURUSD Forex market sold off again overnight. The candlestick on the weekly chart closes tomorrow. The bears want the week to close on its low. That would make traders wonder if the 3 week rally was just a leg in a incipient trading range and not the start of a bull trend. Consequently, the bears will sell rallies today and tomorrow.
Since the bulls always want the opposite, they will look to buy reversals up from around the session low. They hope that the selloff will form a bull flag on the daily chart. They want the rally to be a resumption of the 2017 bull trend.
But with bulls buying low and bears selling high, traders expect trading range price action today. The EURUSD has been sideways in a tight range for the past 3 hours after the selloff early in the European session.
The fight for the remainder of the day will be over the close. If today and this week close near the low, traders will expect a quicker move down to the targets. Additionally, the selloff would have a better chance of falling considerably below the targets before the bulls return.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow
End of day summary
The Emini was limit down in the Globex session. It quickly fell 2% more on the 1st bar and became limit down on the day session.
Today was a trading range day. There were 2 strong rallies but both failed. The day closed near its low.
Traders suspect that this selloff will test the December 2018 low. This year would then have erased all of 2019. Furthermore, this year would become an outside down bar on the yearly chart (where each bar is 1 year).
It is important to note that the S&P500 cash index closed more than 20% below its all-time high. It is therefore in a bear market, like the Dow and the Nasdaq. The bear market is probably secular and not cyclical. That means it could last for a decade.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Standard Time
When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Standard Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PST, and closes at 1:15 pm PST). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the Market Update page.