{"id":116075,"date":"2021-05-19T06:20:00","date_gmt":"2021-05-19T13:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=116075"},"modified":"2021-05-19T14:21:16","modified_gmt":"2021-05-19T21:21:16","slug":"emini-lower-high-in-bear-trend","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/market-update\/emini-lower-high-in-bear-trend\/","title":{"rendered":"Emini either forming lower high in bear trend or pulling back from May 13 reversal up"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini and Forex Trading Update:<br>Wednesday May 19, 2021<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pre-Open market analysis of daily chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Yesterday was a bear day. It closed the gap above last Thursday&#8217;s high, eliminating last week&#8217;s 3-day island bottom.<\/li><li>Today will probably gap down. That will create a 3-day island top. Remember, last week&#8217;s gap up created a 3-day island bottom, and I always point out that island tops and bottoms are usually minor reversal patterns.<\/li><li>Traders are wondering if the 2-day rally is reversing down from a lower high in bear trend (major trend reversal), or simply having a pullback.<\/li><li>Today will give traders useful information about what to expect over the next couple weeks. <\/li><li>If it is a big bear day and it closes on its low, the odds will shift back in favor of the bears.<\/li><li>If today is a big bull day, traders will see last week&#8217;s reversal up as still intact.<\/li><li>If today is a small bull or bear bar, especially if it closes in the middle third, it would increase the chance of more sideways trading.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Breakout Mode on the daily and weekly charts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Last week reversed down from above a month-long trading range, and then up from below the trading range.<\/li><li>A 2<sup>nd<\/sup> reversal has a higher probability of success.<\/li><li>Since the Emini is still in the its 5-week trading range, the bulls have only a slightly higher probability of a break above the top of the range, before there is a break below.<\/li><li>On the weekly Globex chart, there are consecutive outside (OO) bars. That is a Breakout Mode pattern.<\/li><li>However, the trading range alone is a Breakout Mode pattern. The OO increases the chance that the breakout up or down will lead to a 200-point measured move, based on the height of the trading range.<\/li><li>Traders are deciding if the rally last week was only a pullback from the break below the range, or a reversal up from a failed breakout below. <\/li><li>Last week&#8217;s 2-day rally was strong enough to make a reversal up more likely than a bounce in a new bear trend.<\/li><li>But if the bears get a big bear bar today or tomorrow, the odds of a bear breakout of the 5-week trading range will be greater than of a bull breakout.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Overnight Emini Globex trading on 5-minute chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>With today&#8217;s big gap down, the selling might continue for an hour or two.<\/li><li>Since yesterday was in a sell climax for only half a day, it might sell off strongly for the 1<sup>st<\/sup> half of today as well.<\/li><li>But, when once a sell climax lasts 50 or 60 bars, there is a 75% chance of at least a couple hours of sideways to up trading. However, that means there is a 25% chance of a big bear trend day.<\/li><li>Therefore, if there is an early bear trend, it will probably convert to a trading range, or reverse up in the middle of the day.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Emini setups<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-trading-range-then-bear-breakout-and-closed-the-gap-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-trading-range-then-bear-breakout-and-closed-the-gap-1-680x383.png\" alt=\"Emini trading range then bear breakout and closed the gap. Forming possible lower high in bear trend.\" class=\"wp-image-116142\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-trading-range-then-bear-breakout-and-closed-the-gap-1-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-trading-range-then-bear-breakout-and-closed-the-gap-1-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-trading-range-then-bear-breakout-and-closed-the-gap-1-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-trading-range-then-bear-breakout-and-closed-the-gap-1-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-trading-range-then-bear-breakout-and-closed-the-gap-1.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day (see Online Course\/BTC Daily Setups).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex market trading strategies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex daily chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-nested-wedge-and-double-top-in-trading-range.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-nested-wedge-and-double-top-in-trading-range-680x383.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-116156\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-nested-wedge-and-double-top-in-trading-range-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-nested-wedge-and-double-top-in-trading-range-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-nested-wedge-and-double-top-in-trading-range-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-nested-wedge-and-double-top-in-trading-range-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-nested-wedge-and-double-top-in-trading-range.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Today broke above the February 25 high, but so far by only 3 pips.<\/li><li>If today is a bear bar closing near its low, it will be a sell signal for a double top, and a nested wedge rally.<\/li><li>The wedge is nested since the 3<sup>rd<\/sup> leg up is a micro wedge (blue line), which increases the probability of a reversal if today is a strong sell signal bar.<\/li><li>Bulls need consecutive closes above February high, for traders to look for a possible break above the January 6 high, which is the top of the 2-year trading range.<\/li><li>Trading ranges resist breaking out, and therefore traders will look for a reversal from here, or from around the January high.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Overnight EURUSD Forex trading on 5-minute chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Rallied to 3 pips above the February 25 high, but then reversed down to below the open, creating a bear body on the daily chart.<\/li><li>If the bears are going to take control, they will make today close near its low, so that it would be a more reliable sell signal bar on the daily chart.<\/li><li>If today closes above the February 25 high, traders will expect higher prices tomorrow.<\/li><li>The selloff reversed up sharply to around the open of the day. Big Down, Big Up creates Big Confusion, which is a hallmark of a trading range. <\/li><li>This makes a trading range likely for the rest of the day, and it will probably center around the open of the day.<\/li><li>The more today closes near the low of the day, the more likely the bears are taking control. That would increase the chances of lower prices for a couple weeks.<\/li><li>The more today closes near the high, the more likely the bulls are still in control. That would increase the chance of higher prices.<\/li><li>If today finishes with a small bull or bear body, there is an increased chance of sideways trading for a few days.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary of today&#8217;s S&amp;P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-bull-trending-trading-range-day.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-bull-trending-trading-range-day-680x383.png\" alt=\"Emini bull trending trading range day\" class=\"wp-image-116172\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-bull-trending-trading-range-day-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-bull-trending-trading-range-day-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-bull-trending-trading-range-day-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-bull-trending-trading-range-day-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-bull-trending-trading-range-day.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups for today. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day (see Online Course\/BTC Daily Setups).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">End of day summary<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Trading range open. Rallied from double bottom major trend reversal just above last week&#8217;s low. Also was truncated wedge bottom.<\/li><li>Reversed down from measured move up from low of day to high of open. Reversal was also at 50% pullback from yesterday&#8217;s sell climax.<\/li><li>Reversed back up to a new high from a higher low major trend reversal, which was a test of the high of the open and a 50% pullback.<\/li><li>It then reversed down again. That rally was a 2<sup>nd<\/sup> leg bull trap. <\/li><li>Rallied into the close and closed at the high. Bull Trending Trading Range Day.<\/li><li>The bulls hope today is a double bottom reversal with last week&#8217;s low. Buy signal bar for tomorrow, and tomorrow might gap up.<\/li><li>The bears hope it is a bounce at last week&#8217;s low and that last week&#8217;s selloff resumes down soon.<\/li><li>After many big reversals, might have to go sideways for a few days before we know if the bulls or bears will win. Might form triangle.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em>See the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trading Room<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders can see the end of the day <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/profile.php?mode=profil&amp;sub=profile_prefer&amp;mod=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&amp;P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">trading room<\/a>. We offer a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Charts use Pacific Time<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PT, and closes at 1:15 pm PT). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Emini and Forex Trading Update:Wednesday May 19, 2021 Pre-Open market analysis of daily chart Yesterday was a bear day. It closed the gap above last Thursday&#8217;s high, eliminating last week&#8217;s 3-day island bottom. Today will probably gap down. That will create a 3-day island top. Remember, last week&#8217;s gap up created a 3-day island bottom, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":116156,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"shadow","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[281,60],"class_list":{"0":"post-116075","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-market-update","8":"tag-eurusd-forex","9":"tag-sp-emini","10":"entry","11":"override","12":"shadow"},"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-nested-wedge-and-double-top-in-trading-range.png","author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116075","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=116075"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116075\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/116156"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=116075"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=116075"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=116075"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}