{"id":116081,"date":"2021-05-22T01:30:00","date_gmt":"2021-05-22T08:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=116081"},"modified":"2021-05-22T08:26:58","modified_gmt":"2021-05-22T15:26:58","slug":"emini-bulls-slight-edge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/emini-bulls-slight-edge\/","title":{"rendered":"Emini bulls slight edge at end of May"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Overview: Weekend Market Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>SP500 Emini<\/strong> futures market has been sideways for 6 weeks in a yearlong strong bull trend, and therefore in Breakout Mode. Friday is a sell signal bar for a double top, but there will probably be buyers below. A bull breakout of the range is slightly more likely than a bear breakout due to bulls slight edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>EURUSD <\/strong>Forex market on the weekly chart has rallied strongly for 2 months. It is getting near the January 6 high at the top of the 10-month trading range, and there is now a micro wedge. Since the sell signal bar is weak and the bull channel is tight, there will probably be buyers below this week&#8217;s low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex market <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The EURUSD <em>weekly<\/em> chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/EURUSD-Forex-weekly-candlestick-chart-has-micro-wedge-and-double-top-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/EURUSD-Forex-weekly-candlestick-chart-has-micro-wedge-and-double-top-1-680x383.png\" alt=\"EURUSD Forex weekly candlestick chart has micro wedge and double top\" class=\"wp-image-116243\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/EURUSD-Forex-weekly-candlestick-chart-has-micro-wedge-and-double-top-1-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/EURUSD-Forex-weekly-candlestick-chart-has-micro-wedge-and-double-top-1-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/EURUSD-Forex-weekly-candlestick-chart-has-micro-wedge-and-double-top-1-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/EURUSD-Forex-weekly-candlestick-chart-has-micro-wedge-and-double-top-1-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/EURUSD-Forex-weekly-candlestick-chart-has-micro-wedge-and-double-top-1.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Bull bar but tail on top, and close in middle so reversal bar.<\/li><li>Bull body so weak sell signal bar for micro wedge, lower high major trend reversal, and double top.<\/li><li>Because 2-month rally is strong, if there is a reversal, it will probably stop at around the 1.20 Big Round Number, which has been important since August. There is a cluster of support there: 50% retracement; February 5 bottom of the January\/February trading range; September 1 breakout point; and, May 5 low, which was the start of the parabolic wedge.<\/li><li>Most attempts to break out of a trading range fail, even when the attempt is strong.<\/li><li>A double top with the February 25 or January 6 high is more likely than a successful breakout above.<\/li><li>The bulls need 2 closes above the January 6 high, to convince traders that the rally is a resumption of last year&#8217;s bull trend.<\/li><li>Without that, they will continue to believe that the 10-month trading range is intact and that this rally is just a bull leg in that trading range. <\/li><li>Weak sell signal bad, but micro wedge at resistance. When unclear like this, usually will not go far up or down.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">S&amp;P500 Emini futures<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The <em>Monthly<\/em> Emini chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-SP500-futures-monthly-candlestick-chart-has-micro-wedge-buy-climax.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-SP500-futures-monthly-candlestick-chart-has-micro-wedge-buy-climax-680x383.png\" alt=\"Emini S&amp;P500 futures monthly candlestick chart has micro wedge buy climax - with bulls slight edge\" class=\"wp-image-116237\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-SP500-futures-monthly-candlestick-chart-has-micro-wedge-buy-climax-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-SP500-futures-monthly-candlestick-chart-has-micro-wedge-buy-climax-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-SP500-futures-monthly-candlestick-chart-has-micro-wedge-buy-climax-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-SP500-futures-monthly-candlestick-chart-has-micro-wedge-buy-climax-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-SP500-futures-monthly-candlestick-chart-has-micro-wedge-buy-climax.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Strong bull trend since pandemic low. Only 1 pullback (a bar that traded below the low of the prior bar), and it lasted only 1 bar (September).<\/li><li>With one week remaining in May, May so far has a small bear body.<\/li><li>The bulls want May to be the 4<sup>th<\/sup> consecutive bull bar. Since that is extreme and it would be coming late in the yearlong bull trend, it will probably not be a sign that the trend will continue straight up for many more months.<\/li><li>More likely, the bulls will feel exhausted within a few bars (months), and start to take profits. Traders should expect a small pullback this summer.<\/li><li>This is the 3<sup>rd<\/sup> leg up. There were pauses in September and January. If May has a bear body, it would be a sell signal bar for a parabolic wedge buy climax.<\/li><li>It would be a higher probability sell signal bar if it closes near its low.<\/li><li>Because the bull trend is extremely strong, a reversal down would probably only last 2 or 3 months before the bulls return.<\/li><li>Since the yearlong rally has been so unusually strong, the correction might lead to a trading range for a year or more. <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The <em>Weekly<\/em> S&amp;P500 Emini futures chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-SP500-futures-weekly-candlestick-chart-has-High-1-buy-signal-bar-in-tight-trading-range-in-small-pullback-bull-trend.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-SP500-futures-weekly-candlestick-chart-has-High-1-buy-signal-bar-in-tight-trading-range-in-small-pullback-bull-trend-680x383.png\" alt=\"Emini SP500 futures weekly candlestick chart has High 1 buy signal bar in tight trading range in small pullback bull trend\" class=\"wp-image-116238\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-SP500-futures-weekly-candlestick-chart-has-High-1-buy-signal-bar-in-tight-trading-range-in-small-pullback-bull-trend-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-SP500-futures-weekly-candlestick-chart-has-High-1-buy-signal-bar-in-tight-trading-range-in-small-pullback-bull-trend-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-SP500-futures-weekly-candlestick-chart-has-High-1-buy-signal-bar-in-tight-trading-range-in-small-pullback-bull-trend-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-SP500-futures-weekly-candlestick-chart-has-High-1-buy-signal-bar-in-tight-trading-range-in-small-pullback-bull-trend-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-SP500-futures-weekly-candlestick-chart-has-High-1-buy-signal-bar-in-tight-trading-range-in-small-pullback-bull-trend.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>I mentioned last week that there are <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-SP500-weekly-candlestick-chart-has-OO-consecutive-outside-bars.png\" target=\"_blank\">consecutive outside bars on the Globex weekly chart<\/a>, and that is an OO pattern. An OO is a Breakout Mode pattern, which typically has a 50% chance of a bull breakout, and a 50% chance of a bear breakout.<\/li><li>The high of last week&#8217;s Globex OO bar is at the top of the 6-week range, and its low is at the bottom. <\/li><li>On the above weekly chart of the day session, the pattern is similar. There is a 6-week trading range, which is also a Breakout Mode pattern.<\/li><li>This week was an inside bar. It is a High 1 buy signal bar for next week. Since it was a perfect doji bar, it is not a strong High 1 bull flag buy signal bar for next week. This makes a strong rally next week less likely.<\/li><li>Since it is an inside bar after a reversal down, it is also a Low 1 sell signal bar. <\/li><li>A doji in a tight trading range in a Small Pullback Bull Trend is a low probability sell signal.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Late in Small Pullback Bull Trend<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>The Small Pullback Bull Trend has lasted more than 60 bars, which is unusual and therefore will probably not continue much longer.<\/li><li>Since there is no reliable top yet, traders expect higher prices.<\/li><li>When a Small Pullback Bull Trend ends, it usually does not immediately reverse into a bear trend. A strong bull trend typically transitions into a trading range, before the bears can get a trend reversal.<\/li><li>Once there is a correction, traders will expect it to last longer, and fall more than any prior pullback in the trend.<\/li><li>The biggest correction so far was a 10% drop that lasted for 2 months (September and October). Therefore, once this Small Pullback Bull Trend ends, there should be a pullback that falls 10 to 20%, and it should last at least a couple months. <\/li><li>It could last many months. For example, the Emini went sideways for 2 years after the 2017 buy climax.<\/li><li>Once there is a trading range, it will have both buy and sell setups, as all trading ranges do.<\/li><li>If the trading range has a reasonably good sell setup, the bears will have a 40% chance of a reversal into a bear trend.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The <em>Daily<\/em> S&amp;P500 Emini futures chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-SP500-futures-daily-candlestick-chart-has-double-top-major-trend-reversal-and-double-bottom-bull-flag-in-trading-range.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-SP500-futures-daily-candlestick-chart-has-double-top-major-trend-reversal-and-double-bottom-bull-flag-in-trading-range-680x383.png\" alt=\"Emini S&amp;P500 futures daily candlestick chart has double top major trend reversal and double bottom bull flag in trading range\" class=\"wp-image-116239\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-SP500-futures-daily-candlestick-chart-has-double-top-major-trend-reversal-and-double-bottom-bull-flag-in-trading-range-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-SP500-futures-daily-candlestick-chart-has-double-top-major-trend-reversal-and-double-bottom-bull-flag-in-trading-range-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-SP500-futures-daily-candlestick-chart-has-double-top-major-trend-reversal-and-double-bottom-bull-flag-in-trading-range-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-SP500-futures-daily-candlestick-chart-has-double-top-major-trend-reversal-and-double-bottom-bull-flag-in-trading-range-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-SP500-futures-daily-candlestick-chart-has-double-top-major-trend-reversal-and-double-bottom-bull-flag-in-trading-range.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Trading range for 6 weeks within yearlong bull trend. Most attempts to break out of a trading range fail, and the trading range can last longer than what seems likely.<\/li><li>Traders are looking for a measured move up to 4,400 or down to 3,850, based on the 200-point tall trading range.<\/li><li>Reversed up on Wednesday from a double bottom with last week&#8217;s low. This week formed a higher low, which is bullish.<\/li><li>The consecutive big bull bars this week are also bullish.<\/li><li>The bulls on Friday got a breakout above the May 14 high, which is the neckline of the double bottom, but Friday closed near the low of the day, and below the breakout point.<\/li><li>Friday is a sell signal bar for a higher high double top with the May 14 high.<\/li><li>The daily chart now has both a double top, and a double bottom since the May 12 low. That is a Breakout Mode pattern, and it is within the 6-week trading range, which is a bigger Breakout Mode pattern.<\/li><li>A Breakout Mode pattern means that the probability of a successful bull breakout, is about the same as for a successful bear breakout.<\/li><li>In this case, the probability is slightly higher for the bulls: the chart has been in a bull trend for a year; Friday has a smaller bear body than the bodies of the consecutive bull bars of the prior 2 days; and, last week reversed down from above the month-long trading range, but then reversed up from below, and a 2<sup>nd<\/sup> reversal is more reliable.<\/li><li>Summary: 6-week trading range is Breakout Mode, as is the double top following the double bottom of the past 2 weeks. The probability of a bull breakout is slightly higher than for a bear breakout.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trading Room<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders can see the end of the day <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/profile.php?mode=profil&amp;sub=profile_prefer&amp;mod=0\" target=\"_blank\">bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rank-math-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\">trading room<\/a>. We offer a <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Charts use Pacific Time<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PT, and closes at 1:15 pm PT). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rank-math-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\">Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Market Overview: Weekend Market Analysis The SP500 Emini futures market has been sideways for 6 weeks in a yearlong strong bull trend, and therefore in Breakout Mode. Friday is a sell signal bar for a double top, but there will probably be buyers below. A bull breakout of the range is slightly more likely than [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":116238,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"shadow","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[136],"tags":[281,60],"class_list":{"0":"post-116081","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-analysis","8":"tag-eurusd-forex","9":"tag-sp-emini","10":"entry","11":"override","12":"shadow"},"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Emini-SP500-futures-weekly-candlestick-chart-has-High-1-buy-signal-bar-in-tight-trading-range-in-small-pullback-bull-trend.png","author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116081","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=116081"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116081\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/116238"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=116081"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=116081"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=116081"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}