{"id":117493,"date":"2021-06-22T06:20:00","date_gmt":"2021-06-22T13:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=117493"},"modified":"2021-06-22T13:58:09","modified_gmt":"2021-06-22T20:58:09","slug":"emini-rallying-from-bear-trap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/market-update\/emini-rallying-from-bear-trap\/","title":{"rendered":"Emini rallying from bear trap (late June)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trading Update: Tuesday June 22, 2021<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini pre-open market analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini daily chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Yesterday opened near Friday&#8217;s open with the Emini rallying from bear trap. A bull day after a big bear day where there is very little overlap between the 2 days is bullish. <\/li><li>Many of Friday&#8217;s sellers did not exit today. If they exit this week, their short covering could lead to a new high.<\/li><li>Yesterday&#8217;s low was another test of the 50-day MA and the May 14 high. That high was the neckline for the May 12\/May 19 double bottom.<\/li><li>There are 6 trading days left in June. The bulls want the Emini to close above the open of the month so that June will have a bull body on the monthly chart.<\/li><li>If June has a bear body, it will be a sell signal bar for a parabolic wedge buy climax on the monthly chart.<\/li><li>I have mentioned several times that the stock market tends to rally going into the 4<sup>th<\/sup> of July. The most reliable start of the rally is June 26. It is possible that the late June rally began today. If the bulls get follow-through buying, then the Emini will probably make a new high within the next 2 weeks.<\/li><li>Can today be a bull trap? Any rally can be a bull trap. If the Emini sells off strongly this week, there would be a head and shoulders top on the daily chart, where the May 7 high would be the left shoulder.<\/li><li>It is important to note that any top has only a 40% chance of leading to a bear trend. Therefore, it is more likely that any reversal down this week will simply be a bear leg in the 3-month trading range.<\/li><li>Because the Emini has been in a trading range, traders expect reversals.<\/li><li>The bears wanted Friday to lead to a bear breakout. The bulls want today to lead to a bull breakout and for last week&#8217;s selloff to be a late June bear trap. <\/li><li>But until there is a breakout, traders will continue to expect disappointing follow-through after strong moves up and down and then another reversal.<\/li><li>The strong 16-month rally and yesterday&#8217;s strong reversal up make a successful bull breakout slightly more likely than a bear breakout. If the bulls get a good 2<sup>nd<\/sup> consecutive strong bull day tomorrow, there will probably be a new high soon.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Emini is down 2 points in the overnight Globex session.<\/li><li>Yesterday was a buy climax day. Today therefore has at least a 75% chance of going sideways to down for at least a couple hours, starting by the end of the 2<sup>nd<\/sup> hour. It might get stuck in the trading range that set up after the first 90 minutes yesterday.<\/li><li>Even if today is mostly sideways, it should have at least one swing up and one swing down.<\/li><li>There is only a 25% chance that today will be a 2nd consecutive big bull day or big bear day.<\/li><li>While more trading range trading is likely, if there is a series of strong trend bars in either direction in the 1st hour, there will be an increased chance of a strong trend day.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Emini setups<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/Emini-Small-Pullback-Bull-Trend-From-The-Open.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/Emini-Small-Pullback-Bull-Trend-From-The-Open-680x383.png\" alt=\"Emini Small Pullback Bull Trend From The Open - rallying from bear trap in late June.\" class=\"wp-image-117584\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/Emini-Small-Pullback-Bull-Trend-From-The-Open-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/Emini-Small-Pullback-Bull-Trend-From-The-Open-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/Emini-Small-Pullback-Bull-Trend-From-The-Open-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/Emini-Small-Pullback-Bull-Trend-From-The-Open-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/Emini-Small-Pullback-Bull-Trend-From-The-Open.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day (see Online Course\/BTC Daily Setups).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex market trading strategies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex daily chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/EURUSD-Forex-possible-ii-final-flag-in-sell-climax.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/EURUSD-Forex-possible-ii-final-flag-in-sell-climax-680x383.png\" alt=\"EURUSD Forex possible ii final flag in sell climax\" class=\"wp-image-117607\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/EURUSD-Forex-possible-ii-final-flag-in-sell-climax-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/EURUSD-Forex-possible-ii-final-flag-in-sell-climax-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/EURUSD-Forex-possible-ii-final-flag-in-sell-climax-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/EURUSD-Forex-possible-ii-final-flag-in-sell-climax-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/EURUSD-Forex-possible-ii-final-flag-in-sell-climax.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>After 3 big bear bars and with the EURUSD still in an 11-month trading range, yesterday was not likely to be a big bear day. Instead, it was a big bull day.<\/li><li>Yesterday&#8217;s high was below Friday&#8217;s high and its low was above Friday&#8217;s low. Yesterday was therefore a bull inside bar. <\/li><li>That is a Breakout Mode setup. It is both a buy and sell signal bar for today.<\/li><li>Since it was a bull bar in a sell climax, it is a weak Low 1 sell signal bar. There will probably be buyers not far below its low.<\/li><li>For the bulls, they want the 3-day selloff to be a bear trap and a failed breakout below the May 5 bottom of a 2-month trading range.<\/li><li>So far, today is inside of yesterday&#8217;s range. If it remains an inside day, there will be consecutive inside bars (ii), which is a more reliable Breakout Mode Pattern.<\/li><li>An ii late in a bear trend usually either leads to a reversal up or it becomes a Final Bear Flag. That means if there is a bear breakout, it typically fails and the EURUSD reverses up within a few days.<\/li><li>Since the 3 bear bars were surprisingly big, the 1<sup>st<\/sup> reversal up will probably be minor, even if it gets back above the bottom of the range at the May 5 low.<\/li><li>Since the EURUSD has been in a trading range for 11 months, traders should expect disappointment. Consequently, the rally might go above the May 5 low without 1<sup>st<\/sup> forming a micro double bottom. This would disappoint the bears who want a bear trend.<\/li><li>Whether or not it does, the bulls will probably need at least a small double bottom before they can get much above the June 16 sell climax high. The start of a sell climax is always a magnet when there is a reversal up. <\/li><li>The EURUSD will probably be sideways to up for at least a couple days and possibly for a couple weeks.<\/li><li>Last week&#8217;s selloff was so strong that traders expect at least a small 2<sup>nd<\/sup> leg sideways to down before there is a rally above the May high.<\/li><li>There is a 30% chance that this will be a V-bottom and that the EURUSD will go straight up to above the June 16 high in June.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex trading on 5-minute chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Today reversed down from below yesterday&#8217;s high. So far, it is above yesterday&#8217;s low. It is therefore a 2nd consecutive inside day.<\/li><li>Today will probably not break far above or below yesterday&#8217;s range so today will likely not be a trend day.<\/li><li>Day traders so far today have been scalping in both directions<\/li><li>If it remains a 2nd inside day, the bulls will try to get it to close near the high. That would increase the chance of a rally over the next few days.<\/li><li>The bears will try to get it to close near its low, increasing the chance of a bear breakout. However, the bears know that if today remains an inside day and there is a bear breakout, there will probably be a reversal up within a few days. <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary of today&#8217;s S&amp;P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/Emini-bull-trend-resumption-after-bull-trend-from-the-open.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/Emini-bull-trend-resumption-after-bull-trend-from-the-open-680x383.png\" alt=\"Emini bull trend resumption after bull trend from the open\" class=\"wp-image-117623\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/Emini-bull-trend-resumption-after-bull-trend-from-the-open-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/Emini-bull-trend-resumption-after-bull-trend-from-the-open-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/Emini-bull-trend-resumption-after-bull-trend-from-the-open-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/Emini-bull-trend-resumption-after-bull-trend-from-the-open-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/Emini-bull-trend-resumption-after-bull-trend-from-the-open.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups for today. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day (see Online Course\/BTC Daily Setups).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">End of day summary<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Rallied from small wedge bottom. There was also an Expanding Triangle bottom that began in the middle of yesterday.<\/li><li>After a weak rally for an hour, the Emini broke out strongly.<\/li><li>Parabolic wedge top where the 3<sup>rd<\/sup> leg up was 2 unusually big bull bars. This exhaustion attracted profit takers and the Emini transitioned into a trading range for 3 hours.<\/li><li>Strong trend resumption up at end of day.<\/li><li>Very strong 2-day rally. Even though still in 2-month trading range, odds favor new all-time high this month.<\/li><li>Bulls want 200-point measured move up based on height of 3-month trading range. Since seasonally bullish and unexpectedly strong 2-day rally, 40% chance rally could reach measured move target within a few weeks.<\/li><li>2 big bull days so might get pullback tomorrow, but probably would only last a day or two. Odds favor higher prices.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em>See the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trading Room<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders can see the end of the day <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/profile.php?mode=profil&amp;sub=profile_prefer&amp;mod=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&amp;P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">trading room<\/a>. We offer a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Charts use Pacific Time<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PT, and closes at 1:15 pm PT). You can read background information on the market reports on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trading Update: Tuesday June 22, 2021 Emini pre-open market analysis Emini daily chart Yesterday opened near Friday&#8217;s open with the Emini rallying from bear trap. A bull day after a big bear day where there is very little overlap between the 2 days is bullish. Many of Friday&#8217;s sellers did not exit today. If they [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":117584,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"shadow","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[281,60],"class_list":{"0":"post-117493","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-market-update","8":"tag-eurusd-forex","9":"tag-sp-emini","10":"entry","11":"override","12":"shadow"},"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/Emini-Small-Pullback-Bull-Trend-From-The-Open.png","author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117493","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=117493"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117493\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/117584"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=117493"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=117493"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=117493"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}