{"id":118516,"date":"2021-07-18T01:30:00","date_gmt":"2021-07-18T08:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=118516"},"modified":"2021-07-18T04:18:10","modified_gmt":"2021-07-18T11:18:10","slug":"emini-sell-signal-bar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/emini-sell-signal-bar\/","title":{"rendered":"Emini sell signal bar on weekly chart for possible July top"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"0-weekend-report-co-author-andrew-a\">Weekend report co-author Andrew A.<\/h5>\n\n\n<div style=\"max-width: -moz-fit-content; \" class=\"wp-block-ub-table-of-contents-block ub_table-of-contents\" id=\"ub_table-of-contents-319cb596-1856-423e-b8fc-3fafb86eb015\" data-linktodivider=\"false\" data-showtext=\"show\" data-hidetext=\"hide\" data-scrolltype=\"auto\" data-enablesmoothscroll=\"false\" data-initiallyhideonmobile=\"false\" data-initiallyshow=\"true\"><div class=\"ub_table-of-contents-header-container\" style=\"\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"ub_table-of-contents-header\" style=\"text-align: left; \">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ub_table-of-contents-title\" style=\"\">Weekend report table of contents  <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ub_table-of-contents-header-toggle\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"ub_table-of-contents-toggle\" style=\"\">\n\t\t\t\u00a0[<a class=\"ub_table-of-contents-toggle-link\" href=\"#\" style=\"\">hide<\/a>]\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div><div class=\"ub_table-of-contents-extra-container\" style=\"\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"ub_table-of-contents-container ub_table-of-contents-1-column \">\n\t\t\t\t<ul style=\"\"><li style=\"\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/emini-sell-signal-bar\/#1-market-overview-weekend-market-analysis\" style=\"\">Market Overview: Weekend Market Analysis<\/a><\/li><li style=\"\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/emini-sell-signal-bar\/#2-eurusd-forex-market-\" style=\"\">EURUSD Forex market<\/a><ul><li style=\"\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/emini-sell-signal-bar\/#3-the-eurusd-weekly-chart\" style=\"\">The EURUSD weekly chart<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li style=\"\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/emini-sell-signal-bar\/#4-sampp500-emini-futures\" style=\"\">S&amp;P500 Emini futures<\/a><ul><li style=\"\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/emini-sell-signal-bar\/#5-the-monthly-emini-chart\" style=\"\">The Monthly Emini chart<\/a><\/li><li style=\"\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/emini-sell-signal-bar\/#6-the-weekly-sampp500-emini-futures-chart\" style=\"\">The Weekly S&amp;P500 Emini futures chart<\/a><\/li><li style=\"\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/emini-sell-signal-bar\/#7-the-daily-sampp500-emini-futures-chart\" style=\"\">The Daily S&amp;P500 Emini futures chart<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"1-market-overview-weekend-market-analysis\">Market Overview: Weekend Market Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>SP500 Emini<\/strong> sell signal bar on weekly chart. If July has a bear body on the monthly chart, then a 15 &#8211; 20% correction will likely be underway for the next 2 &#8211; 3 months. Without that, traders will bet that this reversal will be like all of the others for the past year and lead to a new high soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>EURUSD <\/strong>Forex weekly chart is near the bottom of a yearlong trading range. Since most attempts to break out fail, there should be a reversal up soon. However, it might come after a brief break below the trading range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"2-eurusd-forex-market-\">EURUSD Forex market <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"3-the-eurusd-weekly-chart\">The EURUSD <em>weekly<\/em> chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/EURUSD-Weekly-Chart-Testing-Bottom-of-Trading-Range.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/EURUSD-Weekly-Chart-Testing-Bottom-of-Trading-Range-680x383.jpg\" alt=\"EURUSD Weekly chart testing bottom of trading range\" class=\"wp-image-118742\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/EURUSD-Weekly-Chart-Testing-Bottom-of-Trading-Range-680x383.jpg 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/EURUSD-Weekly-Chart-Testing-Bottom-of-Trading-Range-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/EURUSD-Weekly-Chart-Testing-Bottom-of-Trading-Range-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/EURUSD-Weekly-Chart-Testing-Bottom-of-Trading-Range-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/EURUSD-Weekly-Chart-Testing-Bottom-of-Trading-Range.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>The EURUSD traded below last week\u2019s low and closed as a bear bar at the lower half of the range.<\/li><li>The small tail below indicates that the bears are not as strong as they could be.<\/li><li>EURUSD is in a 2-month selloff from the lower high major trend reversal and head and shoulders top. <\/li><li>The January 6 high is also a wedge top and therefore traders expect 2 legs sideways to down. The current selloff is a 2<sup>nd<\/sup> sideways leg. Traders are wondering if it will continue down.<\/li><li>Bears have only a 40% chance of a successful breakout below the trading range.<\/li><li>There is a wedge bull flag drawn using the May 5<sup>th<\/sup>, June 18<sup>th<\/sup> and July 16<sup>th<\/sup> lows.&nbsp;<\/li><li>The recent tight trading range is also a 4-week micro wedge bottom and higher low double bottom with March 31<sup>st<\/sup> low.<\/li><li>However, there is a 8-bar bear microchannel (no pullback in 8 weeks). This is therefore a weak bull setup. <\/li><li>If EURUSD trades higher next week, a minor reversal is more likely than a bull trend unless the bull breakout bar is strong, reversing many prior bars and closes near the highs.<\/li><li>The yearlong trading range will likely continue. EURUSD is near the bottom of the yearlong trading range and most breakout attempts fail.<\/li><li>Should the EURUSD break below the Mar 2021 and Nov 2020 lows, odds are it will reverse back into the trading range again.&nbsp;<\/li><li>The bears want a break below the neckline of the Head &amp; Shoulders top. The bigger the breakout bar, the more it closes on its low, and the more bear follow-through bars, the more likely the breakout will lead to a measured move down to the March 2020 low.<\/li><li>Until there is a strong and credible breakout from this yearlong trading range, traders will bet on reversals.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"4-sampp500-emini-futures\">S&amp;P500 Emini futures<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"5-the-monthly-emini-chart\">The <em>Monthly<\/em> Emini chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Emini-SP500-futures-monthly-candlestick-chart-in-parabolic-wedge-buy-climax-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Emini-SP500-futures-monthly-candlestick-chart-in-parabolic-wedge-buy-climax-1-680x383.png\" alt=\"Emini S&amp;P500 futures monthly candlestick chart in parabolic wedge buy climax\" class=\"wp-image-118761\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Emini-SP500-futures-monthly-candlestick-chart-in-parabolic-wedge-buy-climax-1-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Emini-SP500-futures-monthly-candlestick-chart-in-parabolic-wedge-buy-climax-1-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Emini-SP500-futures-monthly-candlestick-chart-in-parabolic-wedge-buy-climax-1-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Emini-SP500-futures-monthly-candlestick-chart-in-parabolic-wedge-buy-climax-1-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Emini-SP500-futures-monthly-candlestick-chart-in-parabolic-wedge-buy-climax-1.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>July currently is a doji with a small bull body and long tail above.<\/li><li>The past 6 months are a 3<sup>rd<\/sup> push up in a tight bull channel since the pandemic lows. The rally, therefore, is a parabolic wedge buy climax, which often attracts profit takers.<\/li><li>July is the 6<sup>th<\/sup> consecutive bull bar, which is extreme. The last time we had 6 consecutive bull bars was in 2011. This increases the chance that July will close below the open of the month.<\/li><li>If July has a bear body on the monthly chart, then a 15 &#8211; 20% correction will likely be underway for the next 2 &#8211; 3 months.<\/li><li>Without that, traders will bet on higher prices in August.<\/li><li>Because the rally has been in a tight bull channel, bulls will buy the pullback, even if it is 20%.<\/li><li>There are 2 more trading weeks to go and the monthly bar can look very different at the end of the month.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"6-the-weekly-sampp500-emini-futures-chart\">The <em>Weekly<\/em> S&amp;P500 Emini futures chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/SP500-Emini-Weekly-Chart-Sell-Signal-Bar-in-Buy-Climax.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/SP500-Emini-Weekly-Chart-Sell-Signal-Bar-in-Buy-Climax-680x383.jpg\" alt=\"SP500 Emini sell signal bar on weekly chart and in buy climax\" class=\"wp-image-118744\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/SP500-Emini-Weekly-Chart-Sell-Signal-Bar-in-Buy-Climax-680x383.jpg 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/SP500-Emini-Weekly-Chart-Sell-Signal-Bar-in-Buy-Climax-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/SP500-Emini-Weekly-Chart-Sell-Signal-Bar-in-Buy-Climax-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/SP500-Emini-Weekly-Chart-Sell-Signal-Bar-in-Buy-Climax-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/SP500-Emini-Weekly-Chart-Sell-Signal-Bar-in-Buy-Climax.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>The weekly bar broke to a new high but closed near the low.<\/li><li>The Small Pullback Bull Trend has lasted more than 60 bars, which is unusual and therefore unsustainable and climactic. It should end soon, and it would end with a pullback bigger than prior pullbacks.<\/li><li>Since this week closed as a bear bar, the bears need to close next week on another bear follow-through bar to make traders believe that a deeper pullback is beginning.<\/li><li>The bears need to break strongly below the trend line around 4260, which is also a test of the May 7 breakout point.<\/li><li>If the bears fail to break the trendline with 2 or more bear bars closing near their lows, the selloff will probably be a breakout test of the May 7 high. Traders will expect a new high.<\/li><li>Traders know that in a strong bull trend, reversals are more likely to fail and turn into bull flags.<\/li><li>The Emini has been in a small pullback trend since the pandemic low. This is a very strong bull trend.<\/li><li>A Small Pullback Trend ends when there is a bigger pullback. The largest pullback since the trend started was in September, which was 10% and lasted 2 months.<\/li><li>So, the strong trend eventually will end with a pullback that is 10 \u2013 20% and lasts at least 2 \u2013 3 months. A Small Pullback Bull Trend usually evolves into a trading range and not a bear trend so bulls will buy the pullback.<\/li><li>After a trading range, a resumption of the bull trend is more likely than a reversal into a bear trend.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"7-the-daily-sampp500-emini-futures-chart\">The <em>Daily<\/em> S&amp;P500 Emini futures chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/SP500-Emini-Daily-Chart-Reversing-Down-but-Bears-Need-Follow-Through.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/SP500-Emini-Daily-Chart-Reversing-Down-but-Bears-Need-Follow-Through-680x383.jpg\" alt=\"SP500 Emini daily chart reversing down but bears need follow-through\" class=\"wp-image-118745\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/SP500-Emini-Daily-Chart-Reversing-Down-but-Bears-Need-Follow-Through-680x383.jpg 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/SP500-Emini-Daily-Chart-Reversing-Down-but-Bears-Need-Follow-Through-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/SP500-Emini-Daily-Chart-Reversing-Down-but-Bears-Need-Follow-Through-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/SP500-Emini-Daily-Chart-Reversing-Down-but-Bears-Need-Follow-Through-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/SP500-Emini-Daily-Chart-Reversing-Down-but-Bears-Need-Follow-Through.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>The Emini tested the top of the expanding triangle and Friday closed as a big outside down bar after a small wedge top.<\/li><li>Friday broke below a minor trendline drawn from the June 18<sup>th<\/sup> with the July 8<sup>th<\/sup> lows.<\/li><li>The next target for the bears is around the 4240-4260 area where the lower expanding triangle trendline, the major trend line and 50EMA are located.&nbsp;<\/li><li>There is often a 5- to 10-bar trading range after a buy climax like the recent 11-bar bull microchannel. Look at the April bull microchannel as an example.<\/li><li>Since this week broke below a minor trend line, the Emini could also be setting up a Major Trend Reversal should price retest the recent highs.<\/li><li>The retest can be a Lower High, Double Top, or Higher High. The weaker the bars in the retest, the better for the bears.<\/li><li>However, traders also know that most reversal attempts in a strong trend fail 80% of the time and reversal attempts eventually turn into bull flags.&nbsp;<\/li><li>Bulls have bought every 1 \u2013 3 day selloff for a year so odds still favor another minor reversal.<\/li><li>There is a measured move target at 4404 above.<\/li><li>All reversal attempts fail until the last one so picking tops is a low probability bet.&nbsp;<\/li><li>Traders are better off waiting for signs of strong reversal setup such as:<br>1) A big bear bar or series of bear bars that breaks a major trend line and reverses below the lows of many prior bars or swing lows;<br>2) A weak retest of the highs that fails with a 2<sup>nd<\/sup> reversal down.<\/li><li>If bears get 2 \u2013 3 big bear bars closing near their lows next week, odds will start favoring 15 \u2013 20% correction.<\/li><li>Most reversals down will continue to be minor, but a 15 \u2013 20% correction is likely this year.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"8-trading-room\">Trading Room<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders can see the end of the day <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/profile.php?mode=profil&amp;sub=profile_prefer&amp;mod=0\" target=\"_blank\">bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rank-math-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\">trading room<\/a>. We offer a <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"9-weekly-reports-archive\">Weekly Reports Archive<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>You can access all weekly reports on the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rank-math-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">Market Analysis<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Weekend report co-author Andrew A. Market Overview: Weekend Market Analysis SP500 Emini sell signal bar on weekly chart. If July has a bear body on the monthly chart, then a 15 &#8211; 20% correction will likely be underway for the next 2 &#8211; 3 months. Without that, traders will bet that this reversal will be [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":118745,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"shadow","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[136],"tags":[281,60,1342],"class_list":{"0":"post-118516","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-analysis","8":"tag-eurusd-forex","9":"tag-sp-emini","10":"tag-sell-signal-bar","11":"entry","12":"override","13":"shadow"},"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/SP500-Emini-Daily-Chart-Reversing-Down-but-Bears-Need-Follow-Through.jpg","author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118516","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=118516"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118516\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/118745"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=118516"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=118516"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=118516"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}