{"id":118999,"date":"2021-07-28T06:20:00","date_gmt":"2021-07-28T13:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=118999"},"modified":"2021-07-28T13:42:24","modified_gmt":"2021-07-28T20:42:24","slug":"emini-expanding-triangle-top-july","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/market-update\/emini-expanding-triangle-top-july\/","title":{"rendered":"Emini Expanding Triangle Top ahead of July FOMC announcement"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trading Update: Wednesday July 28, 2021<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini pre-open market analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini daily chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Yesterday was a bear day after a strong 5-day rally to a new high. <\/li><li>There is now a reversal down from an expanding triangle top. That is a major trend reversal pattern.<\/li><li>When the context and sell signal bar are good, there is a 40% chance of a swing down and a 30% chance of a bear trend. <\/li><li>Here, Monday was the sell signal bar and it was a bull bar. That is a bad sell signal bar. <\/li><li>Also, this is the 1<sup>st<\/sup> reversal down after 5 bull days. That is bad context. <\/li><li>Finally, yesterday closed above its middle, and it was therefore a weak entry bar.<\/li><li>So far, this a weak reversal attempt. The bears will probably need at least a micro double top before they will have a 40% chance of more than a 3-day pullback.<\/li><li>Yesterday is a High 1 buy signal bar, but it had a bear body. That is a low probability buy signal. <\/li><li>Not a good buy signal and not a good reversal down increases the chance of more sideways.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Emini is up 6 points in the overnight Globex session.<\/li><li>There is an FOMC announcement today at 11 am PT. Day traders should exit their positions ahead of the report.<\/li><li>There is usually a big, fast move in both directions in the 1<sup>st<\/sup> few minutes after the report. Therefore, day traders should wait at least 10 minutes before resuming trading.<\/li><li>Day traders should be open to anything after the report. There can be a trend in either direction, and it can be strong or weak. There also can be a trend reversal. Least likely is that there will be no significant reaction and the Emini will enter a trading range.<\/li><li>Traders should trade today as if there are 2 separate sessions. What takes place after the report has very little correlation with what happens prior to the report.<\/li><li>Ahead of the report, the bears want strong follow-through selling. But after 5 strong bull days, a 2<sup>nd<\/sup> strong bear day is unlikely.<\/li><li>The bulls want a rally to reverse yesterday&#8217;s selloff.<\/li><li>A strong bear trend is unlikely ahead of the 11 am PT report. <\/li><li>The report creates uncertainty. That increases the chance of trading range trading. <\/li><li>It also increases the chance of at least a minor reversal if there is a trend on the open.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Emini setups<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/SP500-Emini-5-minute-Consecutive-Wedge-Bottoms-and-Bull-Trend-reversal-680x383.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/SP500-Emini-5-minute-Consecutive-Wedge-Bottoms-and-Bull-Trend-reversal-680x383.png\" alt=\"SP500 Emini expanding triangle top led to consecutive wedge bottoms and bull trend reversal\" class=\"wp-image-119152\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/SP500-Emini-5-minute-Consecutive-Wedge-Bottoms-and-Bull-Trend-reversal-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/SP500-Emini-5-minute-Consecutive-Wedge-Bottoms-and-Bull-Trend-reversal-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/SP500-Emini-5-minute-Consecutive-Wedge-Bottoms-and-Bull-Trend-reversal-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/SP500-Emini-5-minute-Consecutive-Wedge-Bottoms-and-Bull-Trend-reversal-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/SP500-Emini-5-minute-Consecutive-Wedge-Bottoms-and-Bull-Trend-reversal.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day (see Online Course\/BTC Daily Setups).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex market trading strategies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex daily chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/EURUSD-Forex-tight-trading-range-and-breakout-mode-just-above-support.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/EURUSD-Forex-tight-trading-range-and-breakout-mode-just-above-support-680x383.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-119162\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/EURUSD-Forex-tight-trading-range-and-breakout-mode-just-above-support-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/EURUSD-Forex-tight-trading-range-and-breakout-mode-just-above-support-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/EURUSD-Forex-tight-trading-range-and-breakout-mode-just-above-support-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/EURUSD-Forex-tight-trading-range-and-breakout-mode-just-above-support-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/EURUSD-Forex-tight-trading-range-and-breakout-mode-just-above-support.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Three consecutive bull bars after consecutive wedge bottoms. This increases the chance that a reversal up over the next couple of weeks has begun.<\/li><li>The bulls need to break strongly above the 20-day EMA to convince traders that the July low will hold through August and that the rally can reach the June 25 lower high.<\/li><li>Yesterday was only a doji bar and the rally stalled at the 20-day EMA and the top of the 2-week tight trading range.<\/li><li>The daily chart is in Breakout Mode. The bulls want a rally to the June 25 high.<\/li><li>The bears want a breakout below the March and November lows at the bottom of the yearlong trading range.<\/li><li>This week broke above last week&#8217;s high on the weekly chart. There is now a higher low double bottom with the March low.<\/li><li>However, there have been 9 consecutive weeks on the weekly chart where every high has been below the high of the prior bar. That bear micro channel is a sign of relentless selling.<\/li><li>Consequently, the rally on the daily chart will probably not continue up for more than a few weeks. If it reaches the June 25 high, there will likely be about a 50% retracement from there.<\/li><li>There is an FOMC announcement today at 11 am PT. It can affect all financial markets. Therefore, EURUSD day traders should exit positions ahead of the announcement. <\/li><li>Furthermore, there is often a big move in both directions immediately after the report. Consequently, day traders should wait at least 10 minutes after the report before resuming trading.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary of today&#8217;s S&amp;P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Emini-FOMC-and-trading-range-day-at-4400-big-round-number.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Emini-FOMC-and-trading-range-day-at-4400-big-round-number-680x383.png\" alt=\"Emini FOMC and trading range day at 4400 big round number\" class=\"wp-image-119177\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Emini-FOMC-and-trading-range-day-at-4400-big-round-number-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Emini-FOMC-and-trading-range-day-at-4400-big-round-number-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Emini-FOMC-and-trading-range-day-at-4400-big-round-number-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Emini-FOMC-and-trading-range-day-at-4400-big-round-number-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Emini-FOMC-and-trading-range-day-at-4400-big-round-number.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">End of day summary<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Sold off from above yesterday&#8217;s high, but bounced from a small double bottom at the EMA.<\/li><li>Entered a trading range, which was a triangle.<\/li><li>Failed bull breakout and then weak selloff into 11 am PT FOMC announcement.<\/li><li>Major Bull Surprise Bar on the announcement so either trading range or bull trend was likely for rest of day.<\/li><li>A weak rally reversed down from a new high, and today was a trading range day.<\/li><li>The Emini has been stuck at 4,400 for 4 days.<\/li><li>It has oscillated around the open of the week all week, which is near the 4,400 Big Round Number.<\/li><li>July ends on Friday and it will probably be the 6th consecutive bull bar on the monthly chart. That has not happened in 10 years, and it makes a bear bar likely in August.<\/li><li>If August is a bear bar, it will probably be the start of a 2 &#8211; 3-month pullback of 15 &#8211; 20%,<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em>See the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trading Room<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders can see the end of the day <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/profile.php?mode=profil&amp;sub=profile_prefer&amp;mod=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&amp;P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">trading room<\/a>. We offer a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Charts use Pacific Time<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trading Update: Wednesday July 28, 2021 Emini pre-open market analysis Emini daily chart Yesterday was a bear day after a strong 5-day rally to a new high. There is now a reversal down from an expanding triangle top. That is a major trend reversal pattern. When the context and sell signal bar are good, there [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":119162,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"shadow","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[281,68,60],"class_list":{"0":"post-118999","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-market-update","8":"tag-eurusd-forex","9":"tag-expanding-triangle","10":"tag-sp-emini","11":"entry","12":"override","13":"shadow"},"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/EURUSD-Forex-tight-trading-range-and-breakout-mode-just-above-support.png","author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118999","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=118999"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118999\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/119162"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=118999"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=118999"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=118999"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}