{"id":121448,"date":"2021-09-17T06:20:00","date_gmt":"2021-09-17T13:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=121448"},"modified":"2021-09-17T20:51:46","modified_gmt":"2021-09-18T03:51:46","slug":"emini-test-50-day-ma","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/market-update\/emini-test-50-day-ma\/","title":{"rendered":"Emini has uncertain test of 50-day MA ahead of FOMC"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trading Update: Friday September 17, 2021<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini pre-open market analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini daily chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Yesterday was doji bar and inside bar after Wednesday&#8217;s strong reversal up from the bottom of the bull channel and from just above the 50-day MA.<\/li><li>It is both a buy signal bar and a sell signal bar.<\/li><li>Since it was a bear doji after 4 big bear bars and there is a 6-day bear micro channel, the first rally might form a lower high at around 4500, followed by a test back down to Tuesday&#8217;s low and the 50-day EMA. This is not a particularly strong buy setup.<\/li><li>Because the Emini is just above the 50-day MA, it might have to go sideways to down to get there. Many traders are not convinced that it has been adequately tested, especially after 4 big bear days.<\/li><li>Since the 50-day EMA has been reliable support for over a year, there will probably be buyers not far below yesterday&#8217;s low.<\/li><li>However, there is a 50% chance that September 2 will remain the high for the rest of 2021. <\/li><li>A 15 to 20% correction is likely to begin in September or October and it might be underway. If it is, there could be a collapse below the 50-day MA and bottom of the bull channel before there is a new all-time high.<\/li><li>After 4 sideways days and with a weak buy and sell setup, the Emini has an increased chance of going mostly sideways and a little up into next Wednesday&#8217;s FOMC announcement. <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Emini is down 2 points in the overnight Globex session.<\/li><li>Yesterday was an inside day and the 4<sup>th<\/sup> sideways day. That increases the chance of another mostly sideways day. However, even if it is, the daily ranges have been big enough for swings in both directions.<\/li><li>With today opening in the middle of yesterday&#8217;s range, it could be a 2<sup>nd<\/sup> consecutive inside day. There would then be an ii (inside-inside) Breakout Mode pattern ahead of Wednesday&#8217;s FOMC announcement. <\/li><li>4 sideways days also increases the chance of sellers near yesterday&#8217;s high and buyers near yesterday&#8217;s low.<\/li><li>Since today is Friday, weekly support and resistance can be important, especially in the final hour. So far, this week is a small bear doji candlestick. Therefore, the open of the week is important. <\/li><li>The bulls want a bull reversal bar on the weekly chart. They would also like this week to get back above the 4500 Big Round Number and the open of the month.<\/li><li>The bears want the week to close on the low, below the bottom of the now 5-day tight trading range, the 50-day MA, and the bottom of the bull channel on the weekly chart.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Emini setups<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-Failed-BO-below-Parabolic-Wedge-Then-Bull-Trend-Reversal-680x383.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-Failed-BO-below-Parabolic-Wedge-Then-Bull-Trend-Reversal-680x383.png\" alt=\"Emini Failed BO below Parabolic Wedge, Then Bull Trend Reversal. Emini testing 50-day MA.\" class=\"wp-image-121622\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-Failed-BO-below-Parabolic-Wedge-Then-Bull-Trend-Reversal-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-Failed-BO-below-Parabolic-Wedge-Then-Bull-Trend-Reversal-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-Failed-BO-below-Parabolic-Wedge-Then-Bull-Trend-Reversal-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-Failed-BO-below-Parabolic-Wedge-Then-Bull-Trend-Reversal-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-Failed-BO-below-Parabolic-Wedge-Then-Bull-Trend-Reversal.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day (see Online Course\/BTC Daily Setups).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex market trading strategies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex daily chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/EURUSD-Forex-micro-wedge-and-possible-head-and-shoulders-bottom.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/EURUSD-Forex-micro-wedge-and-possible-head-and-shoulders-bottom-680x383.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-121643\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/EURUSD-Forex-micro-wedge-and-possible-head-and-shoulders-bottom-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/EURUSD-Forex-micro-wedge-and-possible-head-and-shoulders-bottom-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/EURUSD-Forex-micro-wedge-and-possible-head-and-shoulders-bottom-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/EURUSD-Forex-micro-wedge-and-possible-head-and-shoulders-bottom-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/EURUSD-Forex-micro-wedge-and-possible-head-and-shoulders-bottom.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Yesterday was a big bear day closing in its bottom third, but just 3 pips below the September 13 bull flag attempt.<\/li><li>This is disappointing for the bears.<\/li><li>Bears want a bear day today, which would confirm the breakout below Monday&#8217;s bull flag. If today is a bear bar closing near its low, the selloff will probably continue down to the August low.<\/li><li>The bulls are hoping that yesterday was a bear trap. They want it to be a brief stop-run below support. They need a bull bar today to bolster their argument. The conspicuous tail at yesterday&#8217;s low increases the chance of a failure.<\/li><li>Today currently is a small bull day. If today is a bull day closing near it high, it it will be a buy signal bar for a failed bear breakout.<\/li><li>Also, a reversal up would be from a micro wedge with the September 8 and 13 lows.<br>So far, the selloff looks more like a leg in a trading range or a pullback from the September 13 rally than a resumption of the May bear trend.<\/li><li>A strong reversal up from here would be from a head and shoulders bottom where the July 21 low is the left shoulder.<\/li><li>If today is either a small bull or small bear bar, traders will expect at least one or two more sideways days as they decide whether yesterday&#8217;s breakout will succeed or fail. <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary of today&#8217;s S&amp;P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-bear-trend-from-the-open-and-breakout-below-50-day-moving-average-and-bull-channel.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-bear-trend-from-the-open-and-breakout-below-50-day-moving-average-and-bull-channel-680x383.png\" alt=\"Emini bear trend from the open and breakout below 50 day moving average and bull channel\" class=\"wp-image-121663\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-bear-trend-from-the-open-and-breakout-below-50-day-moving-average-and-bull-channel-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-bear-trend-from-the-open-and-breakout-below-50-day-moving-average-and-bull-channel-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-bear-trend-from-the-open-and-breakout-below-50-day-moving-average-and-bull-channel-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-bear-trend-from-the-open-and-breakout-below-50-day-moving-average-and-bull-channel-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-bear-trend-from-the-open-and-breakout-below-50-day-moving-average-and-bull-channel.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">End of day summary<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Bear Trend From The Open with a close near the low of the day and of the week. Increased chance of lower prices next week and of gap down on the weekly chart.<\/li><li>5-minute chart sold off exactly to 50-day MA and then entered trading range.<\/li><li>Broke a little below the trading range and the 50-day MA, but formed another tight range that straddled the 50-day MA.<\/li><li>Since there is a 50% chance that the September 2 high will be the high of the year, there is a 50% chance that a 15% correction is underway. <\/li><li>Therefore, there is an increased chance of a big selloff at any time. For example, next week might gap down below the 50-day MA and the bull channel, or the Emini could sell off on Wednesday&#8217;s FOMC announcement.<\/li><li>50% chance of September 2 being the high of the year means 50% chance there will be a new high. With the Emini at the 50-day, the bulls are hoping for another reversal up, like after every prior test of the 50-day MA since the pandemic crash.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em>See the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trading Room<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders can see the end of the day <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/profile.php?mode=profil&amp;sub=profile_prefer&amp;mod=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&amp;P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">trading room<\/a>. We offer a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Charts use Pacific Time<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trading Update: Friday September 17, 2021 Emini pre-open market analysis Emini daily chart Yesterday was doji bar and inside bar after Wednesday&#8217;s strong reversal up from the bottom of the bull channel and from just above the 50-day MA. It is both a buy signal bar and a sell signal bar. Since it was a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":121622,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"shadow","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[281,60],"class_list":{"0":"post-121448","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-market-update","8":"tag-eurusd-forex","9":"tag-sp-emini","10":"entry","11":"override","12":"shadow"},"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Emini-Failed-BO-below-Parabolic-Wedge-Then-Bull-Trend-Reversal.png","author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121448","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=121448"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121448\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/121622"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=121448"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=121448"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=121448"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}