{"id":125248,"date":"2021-11-10T06:20:00","date_gmt":"2021-11-10T14:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=125248"},"modified":"2021-11-10T20:25:52","modified_gmt":"2021-11-11T04:25:52","slug":"emini-parabolic-wedge-reversal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/market-update\/emini-parabolic-wedge-reversal\/","title":{"rendered":"Emini&#8217;s November parabolic wedge reversal should be minor"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trading Update: Wednesday November 10, 2021<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini pre-open market analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini daily chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Monday was a sell signal bar for a parabolic wedge reversal buy climax that was testing the top of the 6-month bull channel.<\/li><li>Yesterday triggered the sell signal by breaking below Monday&#8217;s low. Since yesterday closed below its midpoint and below Monday&#8217;s low, and it had a big bear body, today should trade sideways to a little lower. <\/li><li>Because the bull trend has been strong, this reversal down is probably minor. That means it should last only a few days before the bulls buy again.<\/li><li>There are now 3 consecutive bear bars. That is enough selling to usually lead to a 2<sup>nd<\/sup> leg sideways to down. <\/li><li>A parabolic wedge buy climax typically also has at least a small 2<sup>nd<\/sup> leg sideways to down.<\/li><li>Consequently, even if the bulls buy again today or tomorrow, the reversal up will probably only last a day or two. <\/li><li>With the bulls looking to buy the selloff and the bears looking to sell the 1<sup>st<\/sup> bounce, the Emini will probably be mostly sideways for a few days. With the buy climax on the daily chart being as extreme as it has been, the Emini could enter a trading range for a couple weeks.<\/li><li>Yesterday is a High 1 buy signal bar in a strong bull trend. But since at least a small 2<sup>nd<\/sup> leg down is likely and it is the 3<sup>rd<\/sup> consecutive bear bar, there will probably be sellers not far above yesterday&#8217;s high.<\/li><li>Can these 3 bear bars be the start of a 15% correction? Of course, and a correction is becoming increasingly likely. <\/li><li>However, I have been saying since the pandemic crash that it is more likely that every reversal down will be minor than the start of a bear trend. That is true here as well.<\/li><li>One of these reversals will eventually lead to a correction, but picking which one is a low probability bet.<\/li><li>The bears will need several more big bear bars before traders conclude that a correction might be underway.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Emini is down 15 points in the overnight Globex session. It will gap below yesterday&#8217;s low.<\/li><li>If there is a gap down and it is small, it will probably close within the 1<sup>st<\/sup> hour.<\/li><li>The bears want a 4th bear day. If there is a series of bear bars early in the day, today will more likely continue yesterday&#8217;s trading range and bear channel.<\/li><li>If the bulls get a series of early big bull bars, today could be a bull trend day. However, today will have a difficult time getting much above yesterday&#8217;s trading range high. <\/li><li>Trading ranges are magnets, and that increases the chance of either a trading range or a continuation of yesterday&#8217;s broad bear channel, which traders will trade like a trading range.<\/li><li>Because the sell climax was extreme and yesterday was the 3<sup>rd<\/sup> consecutive bear day, the sellers might be exhausted. This increases the chance of a continuation of yesterday&#8217;s trading range.<\/li><li>The bears want a resumption down from yesterday&#8217;s early selling and the bulls want a trend reversal up. <\/li><li>But 3 big down days after a strong rally creates confusion. Yesterday&#8217;s trading range might not have lasted long enough for traders to bet relentlessly on either direction.<\/li><li>Unless there is a series of strong trend bars in either direction, traders will look for reversals.<\/li><li>Even if today is a trading range day, there should be at least one swing and probably two.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Emini setups<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Emini-bear-trend-from-the-open-then-trading-range.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Emini-bear-trend-from-the-open-then-trading-range-680x383.png\" alt=\"Emini bear trend from the open then trading range. Emini entering possible parabolic wedge reversal.\" class=\"wp-image-125349\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Emini-bear-trend-from-the-open-then-trading-range-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Emini-bear-trend-from-the-open-then-trading-range-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Emini-bear-trend-from-the-open-then-trading-range-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Emini-bear-trend-from-the-open-then-trading-range-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Emini-bear-trend-from-the-open-then-trading-range.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day (see Online Course\/BTC Daily Setups).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex market trading strategies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex daily chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/EURUSD-Forex-double-top-bear-flag.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/EURUSD-Forex-double-top-bear-flag-680x383.png\" alt=\"EURUSD Forex double top bear flag\" class=\"wp-image-125366\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/EURUSD-Forex-double-top-bear-flag-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/EURUSD-Forex-double-top-bear-flag-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/EURUSD-Forex-double-top-bear-flag-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/EURUSD-Forex-double-top-bear-flag-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/EURUSD-Forex-double-top-bear-flag.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Turning down from double top bear flag with November 3 high. Three consecutive bull bars so lower probability sell signal.<\/li><li>Tight trading range for 8 days so Breakout Mode.<\/li><li>Traders are deciding if the selloff will continue down to the March 9, 2020 high at around 1.15 or reverse up from a lower low major trend reversal.<\/li><li>The tight trading range is a sign that the EURUSD is neutral. <\/li><li>However, since the tight trading range is in a bear trend, the odds slightly favor a bear breakout. This is especially true since the March 9, 2020 high is an important magnet below.<\/li><li>Even if the EURUSD continues down to 1.15 or 1.14, it should begin a reversal up for 2 or 3 months soon.<\/li><li>Traders will need to see several big bull bars before they conclude that a rally has begun. Until then, the odds slightly favor a test below 1.15 before the reversal up will begin.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary of today&#8217;s S&amp;P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Emini-buy-climax-then-small-pullback-bear-trend-with-late-short-covering.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Emini-buy-climax-then-small-pullback-bear-trend-with-late-short-covering-680x383.png\" alt=\"Emini buy climax then small pullback bear trend with late short covering\" class=\"wp-image-125382\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Emini-buy-climax-then-small-pullback-bear-trend-with-late-short-covering-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Emini-buy-climax-then-small-pullback-bear-trend-with-late-short-covering-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Emini-buy-climax-then-small-pullback-bear-trend-with-late-short-covering-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Emini-buy-climax-then-small-pullback-bear-trend-with-late-short-covering-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Emini-buy-climax-then-small-pullback-bear-trend-with-late-short-covering.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">End of day summary<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>The strong rally on the open stalled at the 60-minute EMA and the top of yesterday&#8217;s trading range.<\/li><li>After a couple hours, the Emini sold off in an Endless Pullback that evolved into a very strong Small Pullback Bear Trend.<\/li><li>There was a late short covering rally.<\/li><li>On the daily chart, there are now 4 consecutive bear bars, which is a lot. It reduces the chance of a bear bar tomorrow.<\/li><li>The 4-day selloff came after a strong rally on the daily chart. This creates a Big Up, Big Down, Big Confusion pattern, which typically leads to a trading range. Therefore, there is an increased chance of sideways trading for a few days.<\/li><li>Is this the high of the year? It might be, but there have been many other attempts at a bear trend reversal and all have failed. Therefore, the odds continue to favor higher prices. <\/li><li>After the extreme buy climax, the Emini might go sideways for a week or two.<\/li><li>The bears need more bear bars before traders will conclude that a correction is underway. Traders will continue to bet on new highs until there is a clear, strong reversal down.<\/li><li>The bear bar on the monthly chart in September was the 3<sup>rd<\/sup> attempt to end the rally from the pandemic low. I said at the time that the bear bar should lead to a 2<sup>nd<\/sup> bear bar in a month or two. That means the bears will try to create a bear bar in November. If they are successful, it will probably lead to lower prices in December. <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em>See the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trading Room<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders can see the end of the day <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/profile.php?mode=profil&amp;sub=profile_prefer&amp;mod=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&amp;P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">trading room<\/a>. We offer a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Charts use Pacific Time<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trading Update: Wednesday November 10, 2021 Emini pre-open market analysis Emini daily chart Monday was a sell signal bar for a parabolic wedge reversal buy climax that was testing the top of the 6-month bull channel. Yesterday triggered the sell signal by breaking below Monday&#8217;s low. Since yesterday closed below its midpoint and below Monday&#8217;s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":125349,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"Shadow","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[281,1362,1364,60],"class_list":{"0":"post-125248","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-market-update","8":"tag-eurusd-forex","9":"tag-parabolic-wedge","10":"tag-reversal","11":"tag-sp-emini","12":"entry","13":"override","14":"Shadow"},"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Emini-bear-trend-from-the-open-then-trading-range.png","author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/125248","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=125248"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/125248\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/125349"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=125248"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=125248"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=125248"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}