{"id":125255,"date":"2021-11-15T06:20:00","date_gmt":"2021-11-15T14:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=125255"},"modified":"2021-11-15T14:08:58","modified_gmt":"2021-11-15T22:08:58","slug":"emini-4700-big-round-number","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/market-update\/emini-4700-big-round-number\/","title":{"rendered":"Emini retesting 4700 Big Round Number"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trading Update: Monday November 15, 2021<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini pre-open market analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini daily chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Strong reversal up on Friday after 5 consecutive bear bars. Emini is testing the 4700 Big Round Number.<\/li><li>The November 5<sup>th<\/sup> top came from just below the top of the 15-month bull channel. Some traders believe that the resistance was not adequately tested. They want to see a reversal down from above the top of the channel. Since the channel is rising, the top is now around 4740. It is a magnet above.<\/li><li>I wrote last week that while the selloff was strong, every strong selloff since the pandemic crash was a bull flag and led to a new high.<\/li><li>What is different this time is that the November 5 high was a reversal down from the top of a month-long parabolic wedge and the top of a 6-month bull channel. That increases the chance of at least a small 2<sup>nd<\/sup> leg sideways to down before the rally gets much above the high or above the top of the 15-month bull channel.<\/li><li>But even if there is a double top reversal, traders will still buy it. <\/li><li>This has been an extremely strong bull trend and at no point did the bears ever have more than a 50% chance of a trend reversal. <\/li><li>They will need an extremely strong selloff, probably to below the bottom of the bull channel, before many traders will think that a correction is likely. Until then, they will buy every reversal down.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Emini is up 15 points in the overnight Globex session.<\/li><li>It will gap up. The bulls want a strong breakout above the 4700 Big Round Number and then a new all-time high.<\/li><li>However, Friday had a very strong rally, but then entered a trading range for several hours. That is an area of agreement and therefore a magnet. If there is a reversal down in the 1<sup>st<\/sup> couple hours, it will probably continue down to the middle of Friday&#8217;s range. <\/li><li>The Emini went sideways for several days last week around 4700. Also, the selloff had 5 consecutive bear days, which is relentless selling. Both of these facts increase the chance that yesterday&#8217;s rally will stall again here for at least a couple days.<\/li><li>While a trading range around 4700 is likely for a few days, any day can be a trend day. If there is a series of strong trend bars in the 1<sup>st<\/sup> hour, traders will expect a trend day. <\/li><li>If there is a trend, up is more likely after Friday&#8217;s strong rally.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex market trading strategies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex daily chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/EURUSD-Forex-just-above-2020-breakout-points-and-measured-move.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/EURUSD-Forex-just-above-2020-breakout-points-and-measured-move-680x383.png\" alt=\"EURUSD Forex just above 2020 breakout points and measured move\" class=\"wp-image-125562\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/EURUSD-Forex-just-above-2020-breakout-points-and-measured-move-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/EURUSD-Forex-just-above-2020-breakout-points-and-measured-move-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/EURUSD-Forex-just-above-2020-breakout-points-and-measured-move-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/EURUSD-Forex-just-above-2020-breakout-points-and-measured-move-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/EURUSD-Forex-just-above-2020-breakout-points-and-measured-move.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>I have been writing regularly for a couple months that the EURUSD would probably have to fall below the March 9, 2020 high. <\/li><li>That is because it has been in a trading range for 7 years and when in a trading range, a leg up usually begins after falling below support.<\/li><li>That high was the breakout point of last year&#8217;s strong rally. It is therefore important support and a strong magnet. The EURUSD broke below it last week.<\/li><li>I also said that the selloff might continue down to below the June 10, 2020 high, which is a less important breakout point.<\/li><li>Since the EURUSD has already done the minimum, there is now an increased chance of a reversal up at any time.<\/li><li>Last week&#8217;s big bear day was a strong enough Surprise Bar for traders to expect at least a small 2<sup>nd<\/sup> leg down.<\/li><li>The EURUSD will probably fall below the June 10, 2020 high because the momentum down is strong and that price is almost exactly a measured move down from the October trading range.<\/li><li>There is only a 30% chance that this year&#8217;s bear trend will continue all of the way to the bottom of last year&#8217;s rally or below the bottom of the 7-year range.<\/li><li>However, if the bears continue to form bear bars on the weekly and month charts, that probability will go higher.<\/li><li>While the selloff should go a little lower, there is better than a 50% chance that there will be a 1- to 2-month rally from around where the EURUSD currently is or from around the June 26, 2020 low, which was the 1<sup>st<\/sup> pullback from last year&#8217;s breakout of the triangle bottom.<\/li><li>With important magnets just above 1.14 and the momentum down strong, the odds favor at least slightly lower prices over the next couple weeks.<\/li><li>Since major currency reversals have an increased chance of beginning at the start of a year, the selloff might continue through December.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary of today\u2019s S&amp;P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Emini-Bear-trending-trading-range-day-at-60-minue-EMA.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Emini-Bear-trending-trading-range-day-at-60-minue-EMA-680x383.png\" alt=\"Emini Bear trending trading range day at 60 minute EMA\" class=\"wp-image-125584\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Emini-Bear-trending-trading-range-day-at-60-minue-EMA-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Emini-Bear-trending-trading-range-day-at-60-minue-EMA-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Emini-Bear-trending-trading-range-day-at-60-minue-EMA-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Emini-Bear-trending-trading-range-day-at-60-minue-EMA-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Emini-Bear-trending-trading-range-day-at-60-minue-EMA.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">End of day summary<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>The Emini had a small gap up, but it closed in the first hour, which is typical with small gaps.<\/li><li>After trading in a tight trading range for a couple hours, there was a Major Bear Surprise Bar. <\/li><li>Since its low was at the 60-minute EMA and one tick below yesterday&#8217;s trading range low, it was a good candidate for a 2<sup>nd<\/sup> Leg Bear Trap. And that is what it turned out to be. Bears bought back shorts and bulls bought, betting on a bounce. <\/li><li>The Emini then entered a lower trading range and formed a Bear Trending Trading Range Day.<\/li><li>The bears see today as a lower high sell signal bar for tomorrow. There is now a lower high double top on the daily chart with the November 5 all-time high.<\/li><li>However, the Emini is more likely to continue the 8-day tight trading range for at least another day. The bulls will probably try again to get above 4700 and the November 5 all-time high before they would consider giving up.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em>See the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trading Room<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders can see the end of the day <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/profile.php?mode=profil&amp;sub=profile_prefer&amp;mod=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&amp;P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">trading room<\/a>. We offer a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Charts use Pacific Time<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trading Update: Monday November 15, 2021 Emini pre-open market analysis Emini daily chart Strong reversal up on Friday after 5 consecutive bear bars. Emini is testing the 4700 Big Round Number. The November 5th top came from just below the top of the 15-month bull channel. Some traders believe that the resistance was not adequately [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"shadow","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[1348,281,60],"class_list":{"0":"post-125255","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-market-update","7":"tag-big-round-number","8":"tag-eurusd-forex","9":"tag-sp-emini","10":"entry","11":"has-post-thumbnail","12":"override","13":"shadow"},"featured_image_src":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/125255","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=125255"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/125255\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=125255"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=125255"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=125255"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}