{"id":142201,"date":"2022-01-19T06:20:00","date_gmt":"2022-01-19T14:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=142201"},"modified":"2022-01-19T23:29:18","modified_gmt":"2022-01-20T07:29:18","slug":"emini-breakout-below-bull-trend-line-and-testing-100-day-ma","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/market-update\/emini-breakout-below-bull-trend-line-and-testing-100-day-ma\/","title":{"rendered":"Emini breakout below bull trend line and testing 100-day MA"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trading Update: Wednesday January 19, 2022<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini pre-open market analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini daily chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Emini breakout below bull trend line yesterday on daily and weekly charts.<\/li><li>It also closed below last week&#8217;s low, and it is testing 100-day MA. <\/li><li>Bears want reversal down from January 4 wedge top (September 2, November 22, January 4) to continue down to below December 3 low and October 4 low. Their probability will go up if today is a 2<sup>nd<\/sup> day closing below last week&#8217;s low.<\/li><li>Friday was a big bull day. Today opened near Friday&#8217;s open and sold off. All of Friday&#8217;s bulls are now trapped. That should lead to at least slightly lower prices.<\/li><li>Although the Emini has fallen below the January 10 low, it has not fallen below the more important December 3 low. If it does in January, there will be a 2<sup>nd<\/sup> consecutive OO top on the monthly chart. The bears would then have a 60% chance of a couple more months of lower prices. If the bulls are still in control, they will prevent that.<\/li><li>If January is a bear bar on the monthly chart, the more it closes near its low, the more likely the Emini will be sideways to down for another month or two.<\/li><li>They want January to be an outside down bar on the monthly chart. Since December was an outside up month, there would then be consecutive outside bars. <\/li><li>That is an OO Breakout Mode pattern. A break below its low would probably lead to a measured move down to the October low. It could reach the April 2021 gap on the monthly chart just below 4,000 within a couple months. That would be about a 20% correction.<\/li><li>Bulls want January to be a bull bar on the monthly chart. While there is still plenty of time remaining in January, the odds currently favor a bear bar.<\/li><li>Bulls hope the selloff is just a test of the low of last week, the bottom of the bull channel, the 100-day MA, and the 20-week EMA. They will need a strong bull day today or tomorrow to prevent a test of the December low.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Emini is up 17 points in the overnight Globex session.<\/li><li>Since the Emini is oversold on the daily chart and in a 2-month trading range, there is an increased chance of a reversal up today from a failed breakout below the January 10 minor higher low.<\/li><li>Can the Emini form another big bear trend day today? Probably not, but if it does, that would increase the chance that the January 4 wedge top was the start of a 2- to 3-month correction.<\/li><li> Today therefore will more likely be sideways to up, and it might be a bull trend day. Traders should look for a possible bull trend from the open or a selloff and a reversal up.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Emini setups<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Emini-trend-resumption-down-and-test-of-100-day-moving-average.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Emini-trend-resumption-down-and-test-of-100-day-moving-average-680x383.png\" alt=\"Emini trend resumption down and test of 100 day moving average. Breakout below bull trend line.\" class=\"wp-image-142265\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Emini-trend-resumption-down-and-test-of-100-day-moving-average-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Emini-trend-resumption-down-and-test-of-100-day-moving-average-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Emini-trend-resumption-down-and-test-of-100-day-moving-average-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Emini-trend-resumption-down-and-test-of-100-day-moving-average-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Emini-trend-resumption-down-and-test-of-100-day-moving-average.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day (see Online Course\/BTC Daily Setups).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex market trading strategies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex daily chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/EURUSD-Forex-pausing-after-reversal-down-from-top-of-bear-channel.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/EURUSD-Forex-pausing-after-reversal-down-from-top-of-bear-channel-680x383.png\" alt=\"EURUSD Forex pausing after reversal down from top of bear channel\" class=\"wp-image-142306\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/EURUSD-Forex-pausing-after-reversal-down-from-top-of-bear-channel-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/EURUSD-Forex-pausing-after-reversal-down-from-top-of-bear-channel-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/EURUSD-Forex-pausing-after-reversal-down-from-top-of-bear-channel-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/EURUSD-Forex-pausing-after-reversal-down-from-top-of-bear-channel-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/EURUSD-Forex-pausing-after-reversal-down-from-top-of-bear-channel.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Yesterday was a Bear Surprise bar and the 3<sup>rd<\/sup> consecutive bear bar. The breakout above the bear trend line and the 2-month tight trading range might be failing.<\/li><li>The bears want a break below the December 15 low at the bottom of the 2-month trading range and then a measured move down to below the June 19, 2020 low. <\/li><li>They hope that yesterday is a resumption of the 2021 bear trend and that the selloff continues to below the bottom of the 7-year trading range. If they get a 2<sup>nd<\/sup> strong bear bar today, traders will expect a break below the 2-month trading range.<\/li><li>If today is a bull bar closing near its high, the bulls will hope that it is a higher low in a new Small Pullback Bull Trend.<\/li><li>If today is not a strong bull or bear bar, the EURUSD might begin to go sideways again in its 2-month trading range.<\/li><li>If there is a break below the 2-month tight trading range, that range will more likely be the Final Bear Flag instead of a bear flag in a move down to last year&#8217;s low. That means there probably will be a reversal back up within a few weeks. <\/li><li>The odds favor a rally for a couple months before a break below the 7-year low because the monthly chart is in a trading range and legs in a trading range do not typically go straight down from the top to the bottom.<\/li><li>Traders are deciding if the rally has begun or if there will be one more leg down before it begins.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary of today&#8217;s S&amp;P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Emini-Bear-Trend-From-The-Open-and-Broad-Bear-Channel.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Emini-Bear-Trend-From-The-Open-and-Broad-Bear-Channel-680x383.png\" alt=\"Emini Bear Trend From The Open and Broad Bear Channel\" class=\"wp-image-142321\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Emini-Bear-Trend-From-The-Open-and-Broad-Bear-Channel-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Emini-Bear-Trend-From-The-Open-and-Broad-Bear-Channel-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Emini-Bear-Trend-From-The-Open-and-Broad-Bear-Channel-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Emini-Bear-Trend-From-The-Open-and-Broad-Bear-Channel-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Emini-Bear-Trend-From-The-Open-and-Broad-Bear-Channel.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">End of day summary<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>The Emini gapped up to just below the open of the week, but sold off in a Bear Trend From The open.<\/li><li>It reversed up from a wedge bottom and a High 2 bottom from just below yesterday&#8217;s low.<\/li><li>After a rally that tested the open, it sold off again to below yesterday&#8217;s low.<\/li><li>It collapsed in the final hour to just above the December 20 higher low. It formed an iii pattern at the end of the day. That is a Breakout Mode pattern on the 5-minute chart.<\/li><li>The bears hope that the Emini gaps down tomorrow below that December 20 low and forms a big bear trend day.<\/li><li>The bulls hope that the selloff will reverse up from a double bottom with that low.<\/li><li>Remember, as strong as the January selloff has been, the Emini is still in a 3-month trading range. <\/li><li>In a trading range, reversals are more common than successful breakouts. Consequently, the Emini will probably bounce, at least for a few days, from around the current level or the December 3 bottom of the range.<\/li><li>The momentum down on the daily chart is strong enough for traders to expect a break at least a little below the December 20 higher low. <\/li><li>An interesting possibility that January trades below the December 3 low, which is the December low. January would then be an outside down month after an outside up month in December.<\/li><li>That is an OO (consecutive outside bars) Breakout Mode pattern, but with January probably finishing with a bear body, a bear breakout would be more likely. <\/li><li>This would be the 2<sup>nd<\/sup> OO pattern in the past 5 months. If January is outside down and February goes below its low, that would trigger the OO sell signal and the micro wedge top sell signal on the monthly chart.<\/li><li>The Emini would then probably sell off for about a measured move down, based on the height of the OO (which is simply January&#8217;s range). <\/li><li>That should result in a test of the October 4 major higher low, the 20-month EMA, and the 200-day MA.<\/li><li>The selloff might reach the April 2021 gap above the March 2021 high on the monthly chart (and daily chart). That is just below 4000 and almost a 20% correction. <\/li><li>While I have been saying that the Emini would probably test the October low at some point in the 1<sup>st<\/sup> half of the year and maybe the 1<sup>st<\/sup> quarter, I have also said that I thought that a 20% correction to below that monthly gap is probably the worst case for 2022 and that the Emini probably would rally later in the year.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em>See the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trading Room<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders can see the end of the day <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/profile.php?mode=profil&amp;sub=profile_prefer&amp;mod=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&amp;P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">trading room<\/a>. We offer a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Charts use Pacific Time<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trading Update: Wednesday January 19, 2022 Emini pre-open market analysis Emini daily chart Emini breakout below bull trend line yesterday on daily and weekly charts. It also closed below last week&#8217;s low, and it is testing 100-day MA. Bears want reversal down from January 4 wedge top (September 2, November 22, January 4) to continue [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":142265,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"shadow","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[333,281,60],"class_list":{"0":"post-142201","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-market-update","8":"tag-breakout","9":"tag-eurusd-forex","10":"tag-sp-emini","11":"entry","12":"override","13":"shadow"},"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Emini-trend-resumption-down-and-test-of-100-day-moving-average.png","author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/142201","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=142201"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/142201\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/142265"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=142201"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=142201"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=142201"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}