{"id":143663,"date":"2022-02-14T06:20:00","date_gmt":"2022-02-14T14:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=143663"},"modified":"2022-02-15T04:50:38","modified_gmt":"2022-02-15T12:50:38","slug":"emini-bears-want-follow-through","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/market-update\/emini-bears-want-follow-through\/","title":{"rendered":"Emini bears want follow-through today"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trading Update: Monday February 14, 2022<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini pre-open market analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini daily chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>The daily chart tested the February 2 high last week and failed to break above it. The bears want follow-through after February 11 and are hopeful this is a double top lower high, major trend reversal setup that will break below the January lows.<\/li><li>The odds have favored a test of the January lows soon before a rally up to the January highs.<\/li><li>February 11 was a strong bear bar, and bears are hopeful this is a give-up bar that will lead to the January lows. The bulls are hopeful that February 11 is a 50% pullback of the rally from the January low, setting up a higher low major trend reversal and rally up to the January highs.<\/li><li>Last Friday is a surprise bar, and the odds favor at least a small second leg down.<\/li><li>Today will be important to see what kind of follow-through the bears can achieve after Friday\u2019s big bear trend bar. Since the market has been in a trading range for the past six months, the odds are the bears will be disappointed, and today will be a bull trend bar or a weak bear bar.<\/li><li>The bulls will be hopeful that February 11 is a second-leg trap that will trap eager bears into a bad short and be followed by a rally up to the all-time high.<\/li><li>Last Friday, the bears broke below the eight-day trading range and bears hope to achieve a measured move down projecting to around 4300. Next, the bears will want a break below the January lows followed by a measured move down from the February range.<\/li><li>The market probably only has a 40% chance getting a successful breakout below the January lows.<\/li><li>However, with the Winter Olympics coming to an end this week, it is possible Russia invades Ukraine, and if that were to happen, that would be enough of a major event to lead to a strong breakout below the January lows.<\/li><li>Traders should expect continued sideways and confusion on the daily chart.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Emini is down 5 points in the overnight Globex session.<\/li><li>Traders will expect trading range price action on the open. Traders should wait for a credible stop entry buy or a strong breakout with follow-through.<\/li><li>Since Friday was a big bear bar in a trading range on the daily chart, traders will pay close attention to today.<\/li><li>The odds favor a close above the open or at least a weak bear close at a minimum (see daily chart summary for details). This means bulls will look for a credible swing buy early in the day for a possible trend from the open. Bull will also look to buy any selloff, especially a test falling below today\u2019s lows.<\/li><li>Traders also need to be open to a strong bear trend day, which would be follow-through after last Friday\u2019s bear bar.<\/li><li>Traders pay close attention to the open of the day, and if the market is not far from it late in the day, they will look to bet on a close around the open of the day.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Emini setups<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/Emini-bear-trend-from-the-open-and-measured-move-down-with-many-bull-traps.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/Emini-bear-trend-from-the-open-and-measured-move-down-with-many-bull-traps-680x383.png\" alt=\"Emini bear trend from the open and measured move down with many bull traps. Bears want follow-through.\" class=\"wp-image-144226\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/Emini-bear-trend-from-the-open-and-measured-move-down-with-many-bull-traps-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/Emini-bear-trend-from-the-open-and-measured-move-down-with-many-bull-traps-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/Emini-bear-trend-from-the-open-and-measured-move-down-with-many-bull-traps-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/Emini-bear-trend-from-the-open-and-measured-move-down-with-many-bull-traps.png 960w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Al created the SP500 Emini charts.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day (see Online Course\/BTC Daily Setups).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex market trading strategies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex daily chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/EURUSD-Feb-14-2022.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/EURUSD-Feb-14-2022-680x383.png\" alt=\"EURUSD Forex Daily Chart Bulls want High 2 Buy Setup\" class=\"wp-image-144405\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/EURUSD-Feb-14-2022-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/EURUSD-Feb-14-2022-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/EURUSD-Feb-14-2022-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/EURUSD-Feb-14-2022-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/EURUSD-Feb-14-2022-2048x1152.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>The market sold off last Friday and today reached a 50% retracement of the strong bull breakout ending on February 4.<\/li><li>Today, the bears want another strong bear bar to raise the probability of lower prices.<\/li><li>Even if the bears get a second strong bear trend bar today, that would increase the odds of a trading range. This does not mean a high probability of selling off to the January lows. It just means the odds would favor more sideways.<\/li><li>More likely, today will be disappointing for the bears, confirming that this selloff is likely a pullback from the 5 bar bull breakout and the odds still favor a bull breakout and second leg up that test the October lows.<\/li><li>Traders can argue that February 10 was the second leg for the bulls, and therefore, the requirement of a second leg has been met. However, bulls will likely need a more credible test before traders expect lower prices.<\/li><li>The bears have a credible double top with the January and February highs. While it is not likely the bears get a bear breakout below the neckline (January low), if Europe handles the possible Russian invasion of&nbsp;Ukraine poorly, that could be the catalyst for a successful bear breakout and measured move down.<\/li><li>Overall, today is important to see how convicted both sides are. The bulls have a possible second leg trap, and if they can get a strong bull signal bar today, it may set up a reasonable stop entry buy for tomorrow. That could lead to a test of the February highs. <\/li><li>The bears have a surprise bar with last Friday\u2019s bear breakout and are hopeful it leads to a small second leg down. More likely, we are in a trading range, which means today will likely be disappointing for both the bulls and the bears. &nbsp;<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary of today&#8217;s S&amp;P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/Emini-wedge-bottom-and-double-bottom-higher-low-major-trend-reversal-in-trading-range-day.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/Emini-wedge-bottom-and-double-bottom-higher-low-major-trend-reversal-in-trading-range-day-680x383.png\" alt=\"Emini wedge bottom and double bottom higher low major trend reversal in trading range day\" class=\"wp-image-144439\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/Emini-wedge-bottom-and-double-bottom-higher-low-major-trend-reversal-in-trading-range-day-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/Emini-wedge-bottom-and-double-bottom-higher-low-major-trend-reversal-in-trading-range-day-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/Emini-wedge-bottom-and-double-bottom-higher-low-major-trend-reversal-in-trading-range-day-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/Emini-wedge-bottom-and-double-bottom-higher-low-major-trend-reversal-in-trading-range-day-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/Emini-wedge-bottom-and-double-bottom-higher-low-major-trend-reversal-in-trading-range-day.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Al created the SP500 Emini charts.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">End of day summary <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>The market had a trading range open that led to a 2nd entry short at bar 6.<\/li><li>Bar 7 was a strong enough surprise to lead to a couple of legs down and a wedge bottom.<\/li><li>The wedge bottom down to bar 14 was tight, so most traders would wait for a strong bull breakout or a pullback from the breakout, which the bulls got on bar 16 &amp; 20 (double bottom higher low major trend reversal).<\/li><li>Next, the bulls were able to rally to the high of the day in the form of consecutive wedge tops and a failed breakout above the prior high at bar 5.<\/li><li>Around bar 47, the bears got a bear breakout that led to a new low of the day.<\/li><li>The bears were hopeful the bar 47 would lead to a double top and measured move down of the initial range; however, bears bought back shorts below the low of bar 14, &nbsp;and bulls started buying aggressively.<\/li><li>Overall, trading range day is important to pay attention to the lack of consecutive big trend bars. While bar 53 was a big bear bar breaking below support, it followed consecutive sell climaxes. Also, the follow-through after bar 53 bear breakout was not that impressive and had a lot of overlap.<\/li><li>On a trading range day, traders will pay attention to the open of the day and look to fade the market and bet on a retracement back to the open of the day.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em>See the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trading Room<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders can see the end of the day <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/profile.php?mode=profil&amp;sub=profile_prefer&amp;mod=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&amp;P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">trading room<\/a> days. We offer a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Charts use Pacific Time<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trading Update: Monday February 14, 2022 Emini pre-open market analysis Emini daily chart The daily chart tested the February 2 high last week and failed to break above it. The bears want follow-through after February 11 and are hopeful this is a double top lower high, major trend reversal setup that will break below the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5460,"featured_media":144226,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"shadow","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[281,60],"class_list":{"0":"post-143663","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-market-update","8":"tag-eurusd-forex","9":"tag-sp-emini","10":"entry","11":"override","12":"shadow"},"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/Emini-bear-trend-from-the-open-and-measured-move-down-with-many-bull-traps.png","author_info":{"display_name":"Brad","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/brad-wolff\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/143663","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5460"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=143663"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/143663\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/144226"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=143663"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=143663"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=143663"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}