DAX 40 Futures<\/h2>\n\n\n\nThe Weekly<\/em> DAX chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n![\"Weekly](\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/DAX-Bear-Channel-Near-February-Close-680x382.png\" "\\"\\"")
<\/a>DAX 40 Bear Channel Near February Close<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n- The DAX 40<\/a> futures weekly had 5 consecutive bear bars testing the 200-week moving average (MA). After a 2-year bull trend traders expected 2 legs sideways to down and are deciding whether this is nearing the end of the second leg.<\/li>
- We are always in short in a bear channel, so we will likely trade lower next week. But the last time there were 5 consecutive bear bars was the COVID crash. I could not find a consecutive set of 6 bear bars before.\u00a0<\/li>
- So it is climactic and therefore a reasonable place for profit-taking. <\/li>
- But with 5 bear bars, traders expect the first reversal to be minor so we might get to either the February close or low. Maybe both.<\/li>
- The bulls see we are pausing at the 200-week MA which is the pre-COVID support area. They see a sell climax and a possible higher low major trend reversal.\u00a0<\/li>
- But they need bull bars. An outside up or a good close to convince traders to swing long. They want a double-bottom trend resumption but the math isn\u2019t that good for a swing yet.<\/li>
- The bulls see last week was a possible micro DB with an equal low to last week. But neither bar closed on their lows, so it\u2019s not as bearish as it could be.\u00a0<\/li>
- The bears see a bear trend from January, with the most recent 5-week consecutive bear bars as the second leg. They want the leg to continue down to the February lows and a breakout with a possible measured move.<\/li>
- Al recommends using the lower high as the first measured move target distance.<\/li>
- So from the March 28th<\/sup> high to the February low, the target would be around 11600, the October 26th<\/sup> 2020 low. That is also a harmonic with the distance from January\u2019s first bear leg.<\/li>
- Bears are unwilling to hold short into the weekend so they are scalping. That means bulls will start to swing, buying here and lower, betting on a wedge bottom reversal or a double bottom with February.<\/li>
- We have been going sideways in a narrowing trading range since February. Why? 14000 is a big round number and that could become the middle of a trading range that might last for the remainder of the year.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
The Daily<\/em> DAX chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n![\"DAX](\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/DAX-Bear-Trend-Rejecting-20-day-MA-680x383.png\" "\\"\\"")
<\/a>Bear Trend Rejecting the 20-Day MA<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
![\"Weekly](\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/DAX-Bear-Channel-Near-February-Close.png\" "\\"\\"")
<\/a>- The DAX 40<\/a> futures weekly had 5 consecutive bear bars testing the 200-week moving average (MA). After a 2-year bull trend traders expected 2 legs sideways to down and are deciding whether this is nearing the end of the second leg.<\/li>
- We are always in short in a bear channel, so we will likely trade lower next week. But the last time there were 5 consecutive bear bars was the COVID crash. I could not find a consecutive set of 6 bear bars before.\u00a0<\/li>
- So it is climactic and therefore a reasonable place for profit-taking. <\/li>
- But with 5 bear bars, traders expect the first reversal to be minor so we might get to either the February close or low. Maybe both.<\/li>
- The bulls see we are pausing at the 200-week MA which is the pre-COVID support area. They see a sell climax and a possible higher low major trend reversal.\u00a0<\/li>
- But they need bull bars. An outside up or a good close to convince traders to swing long. They want a double-bottom trend resumption but the math isn\u2019t that good for a swing yet.<\/li>
- The bulls see last week was a possible micro DB with an equal low to last week. But neither bar closed on their lows, so it\u2019s not as bearish as it could be.\u00a0<\/li>
- The bears see a bear trend from January, with the most recent 5-week consecutive bear bars as the second leg. They want the leg to continue down to the February lows and a breakout with a possible measured move.<\/li>
- Al recommends using the lower high as the first measured move target distance.<\/li>
- So from the March 28th<\/sup> high to the February low, the target would be around 11600, the October 26th<\/sup> 2020 low. That is also a harmonic with the distance from January\u2019s first bear leg.<\/li>
- Bears are unwilling to hold short into the weekend so they are scalping. That means bulls will start to swing, buying here and lower, betting on a wedge bottom reversal or a double bottom with February.<\/li>
- We have been going sideways in a narrowing trading range since February. Why? 14000 is a big round number and that could become the middle of a trading range that might last for the remainder of the year.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
The Daily<\/em> DAX chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
<\/a>Bear Trend Rejecting the 20-Day MA<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n