The sell-off has been in a tight bear channel since March. That means strong bears. Odds are, a 2 legged sideways to up pullback (bounce) would be minor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
S&P500 Emini futures<\/h2>\n\n\n\nThe Weekly<\/em> S&P 500 Emini chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n![\"SP500](\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Emini-Weekly-Bear-Follow-through-Bar-below-10-Month-TR-680x383.png\" "\\"\\"")
<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n- This week\u2019s Emini candlestick<\/a> was an outside bear bar with prominent tails above and below. <\/li>
- Last week, we said that the Emini may need to trade sideways for another week or two before traders are willing to bet aggressively on a breakout below or a reversal higher. Odds slightly favor a sideways to up pullback to begin anytime soon.<\/li>
- This week traded above last week\u2019s bar but reversed to trade below it. A strong reversal in the final hour on Friday pushed the close above last week\u2019s low.<\/li>
- The bears got the follow-through bar that they wanted confirming the breakout below the 10-month trading range.<\/li>
- Bears want a measured move down towards 3600 based on the height of the 10-month trading range. They want an endless small pullback bear trend.<\/li>
- The bulls want a failed breakout below the 9-month trading range. <\/li>
- They see a wedge bull flag (Jan 24, Feb 24, and May 20) with an embedded parabolic wedge (April 26, May 2, and May 20) and want a reversal higher from a lower low major trend reversal.<\/li>
- The selloff from March 29 has been very strong. The bulls will need at least a micro double bottom or a strong reversal bar before they would be willing to buy aggressively.<\/li>
- There are 7 consecutive bear bars in the current leg down, something that has not happened since February 2001. It increases the odds that we will get a bull bar within the next 1 to 3 weeks.<\/li>
- Since this week was a bear bar, it is a sell signal bar for next week. The prominent tail below makes it a weaker sell signal bar.<\/li>
- The sell-off since March is in a tight bear channel down. Odds continue to favor sideways to down.<\/li>
- The bulls will need a strong reversal bar or a micro double bottom before they would be willing to buy aggressively. If next week trades below this week\u2019s candlestick low but reverses higher, there will then be a micro wedge pattern.<\/li>
- However, because of the tight bear channel down, odds are the pullback would be minor and traders expect at least a small second leg sideways to down move after a pullback because V-bottoms are not common.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Comments from Al Brooks<\/h4>\n\n\n\n- “The Emini collapsed on Friday to below a 20% correction from the all-time high. Many stock market investors build up cash from their businesses or elsewhere and then wait for 10%, 20%, and 30% corrections. There were enough buyers to create a midday bull trend reversal. However, the 1st<\/sup> time a market breaks through major support or resistance, it often reverses. <\/li>
- In this case, everyone was looking for a 20% selloff, and therefore there were no buyers just above. Why buy above when you are confident you can soon buy lower? That absence of buyers just above support creates a vacuum down to support. On Friday, it was in the form of a very strong Small Pullback Bear Trend. Many bears took profits, and many bulls went long. <\/li>
- What often happens is that the attempt to reverse soon fails and then there is a successful breakout. It could come in a few days or in a few weeks.<\/li>
- It is important to note that this week was the 7th<\/sup> consecutive bear bar on the weekly chart. Streaks eventually end and therefore are unsustainable and a form of a climax. A 7-week streak has not happened in 21 years. That 2001 streak lasted 8 weeks, and then the Emini reversed up for a couple of months. This was followed by another new low. No two times are ever identical. However, traders should expect a bounce soon and then an attempt at another low.<\/li>
- While it is possible the selloff could reach the pre-pandemic high just above 3300, which is a 38% correction, it should end before then. In January, I said the Emini should sell-off in the 1st<\/sup> half of the year, and the selloff could be 20% and possibly reach 3700. I also said it should rally in the 2nd<\/sup> half. I still believe that my January comments are accurate.”<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
The Daily<\/em> S&P 500 Emini chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n![\"SP500](\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Emini-Daily-Wedge-Bottom-but-Strong-Bears-680x383.png\" "\\"\\"")
<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n- The Emini traded higher early in the week testing close to the 20-day exponential moving average on Tuesday but did not reach it. It was followed by a sharp sell-off on Wednesday and a breakout and reversal on Friday.<\/li>
- Last week, we said that the bulls will need to create follow-through buying early in the week to convince traders that a 2 legged sideways to up pullback is beginning.<\/li>
- However, the sell-off since March 29 was strong enough for traders to expect at least a small second leg sideways to down after a pullback (bounce).<\/li>
- This week traded above last week\u2019s high but there was no follow-through buying, and the bears got the second leg sideways to down by Friday.<\/li>
- The bulls want a reversal higher from a wedge bull flag (Jan 24, Feb 24, and May 20) with an embedded parabolic wedge (April 26, May 2, and May 12) and a lower low major trend reversal. <\/li>
- They have a micro double bottom (May 12 and May 20) and a reversal bar on Friday.<\/li>
- They want the breakout below the 9-month trading range to fail and a reversal back into the middle of the trading range around 4400.<\/li>
- The bears want a measured move down to around 3600 based on the height of the 9-month trading range. They want a small pullback bear trend down.<\/li>
- The channel down from March 29 has been tight. That means strong bears.<\/li>
- Bears saw the pullback (bounce) earlier in the week as a test of the breakout point, which is the February low. The bulls failed to reach the breakout point; it could potentially be a measuring gap. <\/li>
- A measured move will take them down to slightly below 3600.<\/li>
- Friday was a reversal bar with a bear body closing in the upper half of the range. It is a buy signal bar for Monday. <\/li>
- The bulls will need to create consecutive bull bars closing near the highs to convince traders that a 2-legged sideways to up pullback is underway.<\/li>
- Otherwise, if the bounce is more sideways and stalls around the 20-day exponential moving average or May 17 high, bears will likely return to sell the double top bear flag.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Trading room<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. Al talks about the detailed Emini price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room<\/a>. We offer a 2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nMarket analysis reports archive<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
![\"SP500](\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Emini-Weekly-Bear-Follow-through-Bar-below-10-Month-TR.png\" "\\"\\"")
<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n- This week\u2019s Emini candlestick<\/a> was an outside bear bar with prominent tails above and below. <\/li>
- Last week, we said that the Emini may need to trade sideways for another week or two before traders are willing to bet aggressively on a breakout below or a reversal higher. Odds slightly favor a sideways to up pullback to begin anytime soon.<\/li>
- This week traded above last week\u2019s bar but reversed to trade below it. A strong reversal in the final hour on Friday pushed the close above last week\u2019s low.<\/li>
- The bears got the follow-through bar that they wanted confirming the breakout below the 10-month trading range.<\/li>
- Bears want a measured move down towards 3600 based on the height of the 10-month trading range. They want an endless small pullback bear trend.<\/li>
- The bulls want a failed breakout below the 9-month trading range. <\/li>
- They see a wedge bull flag (Jan 24, Feb 24, and May 20) with an embedded parabolic wedge (April 26, May 2, and May 20) and want a reversal higher from a lower low major trend reversal.<\/li>
- The selloff from March 29 has been very strong. The bulls will need at least a micro double bottom or a strong reversal bar before they would be willing to buy aggressively.<\/li>
- There are 7 consecutive bear bars in the current leg down, something that has not happened since February 2001. It increases the odds that we will get a bull bar within the next 1 to 3 weeks.<\/li>
- Since this week was a bear bar, it is a sell signal bar for next week. The prominent tail below makes it a weaker sell signal bar.<\/li>
- The sell-off since March is in a tight bear channel down. Odds continue to favor sideways to down.<\/li>
- The bulls will need a strong reversal bar or a micro double bottom before they would be willing to buy aggressively. If next week trades below this week\u2019s candlestick low but reverses higher, there will then be a micro wedge pattern.<\/li>
- However, because of the tight bear channel down, odds are the pullback would be minor and traders expect at least a small second leg sideways to down move after a pullback because V-bottoms are not common.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Comments from Al Brooks<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
- “The Emini collapsed on Friday to below a 20% correction from the all-time high. Many stock market investors build up cash from their businesses or elsewhere and then wait for 10%, 20%, and 30% corrections. There were enough buyers to create a midday bull trend reversal. However, the 1st<\/sup> time a market breaks through major support or resistance, it often reverses. <\/li>
- In this case, everyone was looking for a 20% selloff, and therefore there were no buyers just above. Why buy above when you are confident you can soon buy lower? That absence of buyers just above support creates a vacuum down to support. On Friday, it was in the form of a very strong Small Pullback Bear Trend. Many bears took profits, and many bulls went long. <\/li>
- What often happens is that the attempt to reverse soon fails and then there is a successful breakout. It could come in a few days or in a few weeks.<\/li>
- It is important to note that this week was the 7th<\/sup> consecutive bear bar on the weekly chart. Streaks eventually end and therefore are unsustainable and a form of a climax. A 7-week streak has not happened in 21 years. That 2001 streak lasted 8 weeks, and then the Emini reversed up for a couple of months. This was followed by another new low. No two times are ever identical. However, traders should expect a bounce soon and then an attempt at another low.<\/li>
- While it is possible the selloff could reach the pre-pandemic high just above 3300, which is a 38% correction, it should end before then. In January, I said the Emini should sell-off in the 1st<\/sup> half of the year, and the selloff could be 20% and possibly reach 3700. I also said it should rally in the 2nd<\/sup> half. I still believe that my January comments are accurate.”<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
The Daily<\/em> S&P 500 Emini chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n- The Emini traded higher early in the week testing close to the 20-day exponential moving average on Tuesday but did not reach it. It was followed by a sharp sell-off on Wednesday and a breakout and reversal on Friday.<\/li>
- Last week, we said that the bulls will need to create follow-through buying early in the week to convince traders that a 2 legged sideways to up pullback is beginning.<\/li>
- However, the sell-off since March 29 was strong enough for traders to expect at least a small second leg sideways to down after a pullback (bounce).<\/li>
- This week traded above last week\u2019s high but there was no follow-through buying, and the bears got the second leg sideways to down by Friday.<\/li>
- The bulls want a reversal higher from a wedge bull flag (Jan 24, Feb 24, and May 20) with an embedded parabolic wedge (April 26, May 2, and May 12) and a lower low major trend reversal. <\/li>
- They have a micro double bottom (May 12 and May 20) and a reversal bar on Friday.<\/li>
- They want the breakout below the 9-month trading range to fail and a reversal back into the middle of the trading range around 4400.<\/li>
- The bears want a measured move down to around 3600 based on the height of the 9-month trading range. They want a small pullback bear trend down.<\/li>
- The channel down from March 29 has been tight. That means strong bears.<\/li>
- Bears saw the pullback (bounce) earlier in the week as a test of the breakout point, which is the February low. The bulls failed to reach the breakout point; it could potentially be a measuring gap. <\/li>
- A measured move will take them down to slightly below 3600.<\/li>
- Friday was a reversal bar with a bear body closing in the upper half of the range. It is a buy signal bar for Monday. <\/li>
- The bulls will need to create consecutive bull bars closing near the highs to convince traders that a 2-legged sideways to up pullback is underway.<\/li>
- Otherwise, if the bounce is more sideways and stalls around the 20-day exponential moving average or May 17 high, bears will likely return to sell the double top bear flag.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Trading room<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. Al talks about the detailed Emini price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room<\/a>. We offer a 2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nMarket analysis reports archive<\/h3>\n\n\n\n