{"id":169500,"date":"2023-02-01T06:20:00","date_gmt":"2023-02-01T14:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=169500"},"modified":"2023-02-01T14:39:13","modified_gmt":"2023-02-01T22:39:13","slug":"fomc-to-rally-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/fomc-to-rally-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Bulls Want FOMC to Rally Market up to December 13 High"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trading Update: Wednesday February 1, 2023<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini pre-open market analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini daily chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Emini had a strong bull close yesterday, closing the month near its high.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bulls want FOMC to rally market to get above the December 13<sup>th<\/sup> high. Today is an FOMC day, so the market may get above it during today\u2019s report.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bulls see Monday (January 30<sup>th<\/sup>) as a test of the January 25<sup>th<\/sup> buy signal bar high, which was the entry price to the High 1 buy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bulls want to get a strong follow-through bar today after yesterday\u2019s bull close.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>While the bulls have seven bull bars out of the past nine bull bars and are winning in terms of time, the bull closes have a lot of overlap. This is a sign of trading range price action.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The market may be so close to the December 13<sup>th<\/sup> high that it will be unable to escape the gravitational pull.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The December 13<sup>th<\/sup> high has been an important magnet for some time, and now the odds are the market will go above its high in the next couple of days.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It is common for the market to reverse down from just under an important magnet like the December 13<sup>th<\/sup> high as it did on January 27<sup>th<\/sup>. The market formed a wedge top on January 27<sup>th<\/sup>; however, traders questioned if the December 13<sup>th<\/sup> high was adequately tested.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Since the December 13<sup>th<\/sup> high was likely not adequately tested, the market is pulled up to it. If everyone believes that the market is going above the December 13<sup>th<\/sup> high, nobody is going to sell right below it.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This means there is potential to get a strong upside breakout above the December 13<sup>th<\/sup> high; however, more likely, there will be sellers at its high, and the market will go sideways.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bears will argue that a rally above the December 13<sup>th<\/sup> high is just a complex two-legged pullback that began at the October 2022 low. Those bears will see the August 2022 high as the major lower high and December 13<sup>th<\/sup> as a minor lower high because it did not make a new low.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The most important thing to remember is that the range on the daily chart is contracting. This means the market is forming a triangle which is a form of a tight trading range and breakout mode.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Most traders should wait for more clarity, which often happens in the form of a strong breakout with follow-through.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Emini is down 6 points in the overnight Globex session.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Globex market has been going sideways since the late rally into yesterday\u2019s close.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The odds favored a trading range forming after yesterday\u2019s consecutive buy climaxes, which is why the market is now forming a trading range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Today is a FOMC statement day, and the market may try to get neutral going into the report release at 11:00 AM PT.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders should expect a lot of trading range price action on the open and leading up to the report.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>As always, most traders should consider not trading for the first 6-12 bars of the day unless they are comfortable with limit orders.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The market, most of the time (80% or more), will have a swing trade that begins before the end of the second hour. Most traders should try and catch the opening swing trade instead of fading breakouts with limit order.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The opening swing will often begin after a credible double top\/bottom or wedge top\/bottom has formed.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>By trying to catch the opening swing trade, a trader is positioning themselves to take a trade that has the potential to laws an hour or two and have a couple of legs in the direction of the move. This often provides good risk\/reward with decent probability.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If a trader wants higher probability, they can wait for a credible breakout with follow-through.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders should stop trading at least 30-45 minutes before the report is released at 11:00 AM PT.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>When the report is released, traders should not trade before the close of the second bar. This is because the FOMC bar can often be a big trend bar that will completely reverse on the next bar.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders need to trade small during the FOMC report. The bars are often big, and it is easy to take a very big loss if one is not careful and does not reduce their position size when the report is released. In general, traders should consider trading 20% of their normal position size when the report is released.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emini intraday market update<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Emini opened and rallied, testing yesterday\u2019s close, and reversed down from a parabolic wedge.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bears got a strong bear reversal bar on bar 7, an outside down bar.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Even though the market was in a trading range and forming an expanding triangle on the open, bar 7 was strong enough to get a second leg down, which is why the market sold off down to bar 18.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bears see yesterday\u2019s 12:30 PT higher low as an obvious higher low late in a bull trend that will likely get testing.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bulls want to prevent the market from falling below yesterday\u2019s 12:30 higher; however, with the market converting into a trading range, they will likely be unable to prevent the bears from going below it.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>With yesterday\u2019s rally being so climactic, traders should expect a trading range to begin before the end of the 2<sup>nd<\/sup> hour.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>I am writing this at 8:10 AM PT, and at the moment, it looks like the bears will get a second leg down and get closer to yesterday\u2019s 12:30 higher low. After the second leg down, the market will probably begin to go sideways until the report.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Since the market is likely in the trading range, traders should be aware that the bulls who bought the bar 8 low during the 7:50 AM PT bear breakout will probably make money.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Emini setups<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Emini-expanding-triangle-and-trading-range-open-with-lower-low-double-bottom-and-then-small-pullhack-bull-trend-with-ledge-top-and-EMA-gap-bars.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Emini-expanding-triangle-and-trading-range-open-with-lower-low-double-bottom-and-then-small-pullhack-bull-trend-with-ledge-top-and-EMA-gap-bars-680x383.png\" alt=\"Emini expanding triangle and trading range open with lower low double bottom and then small pullback bull trend. Bulls want FOMC to rally market.\" class=\"wp-image-169636\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Emini-expanding-triangle-and-trading-range-open-with-lower-low-double-bottom-and-then-small-pullhack-bull-trend-with-ledge-top-and-EMA-gap-bars-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Emini-expanding-triangle-and-trading-range-open-with-lower-low-double-bottom-and-then-small-pullhack-bull-trend-with-ledge-top-and-EMA-gap-bars-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Emini-expanding-triangle-and-trading-range-open-with-lower-low-double-bottom-and-then-small-pullhack-bull-trend-with-ledge-top-and-EMA-gap-bars-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Emini-expanding-triangle-and-trading-range-open-with-lower-low-double-bottom-and-then-small-pullhack-bull-trend-with-ledge-top-and-EMA-gap-bars.png 960w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Al created the SP500 Emini charts.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day (see Online Course\/BTC Daily Setups).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"caption\">If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex market trading strategies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex daily chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/EURUSD-Daily-No-Sign-of-a-Top.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/EURUSD-Daily-No-Sign-of-a-Top-680x383.jpg\" alt=\"EURUSD Daily: No Sign of a Top\" class=\"wp-image-169666\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/EURUSD-Daily-No-Sign-of-a-Top-680x383.jpg 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/EURUSD-Daily-No-Sign-of-a-Top-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/EURUSD-Daily-No-Sign-of-a-Top-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/EURUSD-Daily-No-Sign-of-a-Top-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/EURUSD-Daily-No-Sign-of-a-Top.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The EURUSD is continuing to rally in a small pullback bull trend.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bears are not yet doing enough to convince traders that they are strong enough to convert the market into a trading range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>While the odds favor this small pullback trend soon converting into a trading range, it is important to be patient. Small pullback trends can last a very long time and rally for more bars than what seems likely.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>What I have been saying about the weekly chart still holds true. That has been in a tight bear channel since mid-2021. The rally from October 2022 was the first strong trendline break of the bear channel.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Typically, bear channels convert into trading ranges and not bull trends. This means that as strong as the rally looks on the weekly chart, the market will likely have to have a deep pullback, at least to the 1.0500 price level, and form a higher low major trend reversal.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>While the rally on the weekly chart may be a major reversal (V-Bottom) that will not form a higher low major trend reversal, the odds are against it.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary of today&#8217;s S&amp;P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Emini-parabolic-wedge-and-lower-high-double-top-led-to-trading-range-but-FOMC-had-major-bull-surprise-breakout-and-measured-move-up-to-a-parabolic-wedge-buy-climax-and-profit-taking.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Emini-parabolic-wedge-and-lower-high-double-top-led-to-trading-range-but-FOMC-had-major-bull-surprise-breakout-and-measured-move-up-to-a-parabolic-wedge-buy-climax-and-profit-taking-680x383.png\" alt=\"Emini parabolic wedge and lower high double top led to trading range but FOMC had major bull surprise breakout and measured move up to a parabolic wedge buy climax and profit taking\" class=\"wp-image-169686\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Emini-parabolic-wedge-and-lower-high-double-top-led-to-trading-range-but-FOMC-had-major-bull-surprise-breakout-and-measured-move-up-to-a-parabolic-wedge-buy-climax-and-profit-taking-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Emini-parabolic-wedge-and-lower-high-double-top-led-to-trading-range-but-FOMC-had-major-bull-surprise-breakout-and-measured-move-up-to-a-parabolic-wedge-buy-climax-and-profit-taking-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Emini-parabolic-wedge-and-lower-high-double-top-led-to-trading-range-but-FOMC-had-major-bull-surprise-breakout-and-measured-move-up-to-a-parabolic-wedge-buy-climax-and-profit-taking-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Emini-parabolic-wedge-and-lower-high-double-top-led-to-trading-range-but-FOMC-had-major-bull-surprise-breakout-and-measured-move-up-to-a-parabolic-wedge-buy-climax-and-profit-taking.png 960w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Al created the SP500 Emini charts.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">End of day review<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>I will update at the end of the day.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em>See the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trading Room<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">trading room<\/a> days. We offer a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Charts use Pacific Time<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trading Update: Wednesday February 1, 2023 Emini pre-open market analysis Emini daily chart Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today Emini intraday market update Yesterday&#8217;s Emini setups Al created the SP500 Emini charts. Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5460,"featured_media":169636,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"shadow","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153,136],"tags":[281,344,60],"class_list":{"0":"post-169500","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-market-update","8":"category-analysis","9":"tag-eurusd-forex","10":"tag-fomc-report","11":"tag-sp-emini","12":"entry","13":"override","14":"shadow"},"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Emini-expanding-triangle-and-trading-range-open-with-lower-low-double-bottom-and-then-small-pullhack-bull-trend-with-ledge-top-and-EMA-gap-bars.png","author_info":{"display_name":"Brad","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/brad-wolff\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/169500","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5460"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=169500"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/169500\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/169636"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=169500"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=169500"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=169500"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}